ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC sticks with 60 kt. Good call as I’m not entirely sold on the chances it’s a hurricane. Maybe it is. I don’t know but the sudden drop seems slightly suspicious as it could’ve been a mesovort (considering recon apparently avoided the actual center on its way out which further raises my doubt). Still the strongest June MDR storm in 90 years.

Nah this is definitely real. It is stacked and has an eyewall. It luckily only has a few hours left before shear/easterlies decouple it. But could for sure become a brief cat 1

[Landy]

[LemieT]

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php

Bret slowly coming into view. Scattered showers passing through the islands from the very outer circulation fingers.

Just had a sharp one pass over my house, lasted all of 30 seconds, now back to little drizzle and stillness.

[Chemmers]

looking good this morning i dont think this has done intensify yet

[Ivanhater]

Can't tell for sure but it looks like the center has raced out ahead of the convection

[Hammy]

Can't tell for sure but it looks like the center has raced out ahead of the convection

Based on cloud motion, looks about 13.3-13.5N and 56.5-56.7W, but still under the canopy and close-ish to the convection

[Sciencerocks]

[Ivanhater]

Convection has really collapsed this morning

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Latest ICON initialization at 1005mb.
Obviously, Bret is lower than that.
Takes it north of Honduras.

[TallyTracker]

Looks like the decapitation has begun in earnest this morning! That should prevent Bret from hitting hurricane strength. Probably will weaken some before passing through the islands though as always prepare for one category above the forecast!

[GCANE]

20 minutes of recon data missing as it flew through the CoC

[GCANE]

Eye drop = 1005mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-1125.png

NE Eyewall Drop
56 knots at surface
64 knots at 985mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-1124.png

[GCANE]

To my surprise, ICON did nail it

[GCANE]

Eye Character: Closed
Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

[GCANE]

Just about there
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2023062212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 570W, 60, 996, TS

[GCANE]

Bret now tapping into two feeder bands

[cycloneye]

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 22/1200Z

C. 13.7N

D. 56.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
IS ALSO 3.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE MET DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Kingarabian]

ADT CI was up to 4.1.