WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Also in area of Pacific now where satellite view is tilted west. GOES west is looking from 137W.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1689375354547306498




And I'd argue that this was a depression for a few days in the MDR.

[abajan]

Dora the Explorer:



Link: https://youtu.be/MgqI4EQs_2s

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Dora continues to track westward across the central North Pacific,
unscathed by shear and sustained by marginally warm ocean water.
Satellite presentation includes a clearly-defined eye and a
symmetrical central structure. While the periphery is a bit ragged
in appearance, there is little or no evidence of shear effects.
Surrounding dry air has not been entrained sufficiently to erode
the core. Dora is very slowly gaining latitude but will pass far
south of Johnston Island later today. All three fix agencies have
derived subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0, corresponding
to 115 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS ADT intensity is also 115 kt. Given the
overall unchanged appearance of Dora over the past six hours, the
obvious move is to assign her an initial intensity of 115 kt.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the
last advisory. Track guidance remains remarkably tight through tau
72, with spread only becoming significant at tau 96 and tau 120,
long after this system has passed out of the basin into the western
North Pacific. Strong ridging north of Dora, and the westward
migration of this ridging, accounts for this system's prolonged
westward movement. However, the slow and rather recent increase in
latitude indicates that Dora is reaching the southwest periphery of
this ridging and is poised to begin a track to the west northwest.
This track swing will continue as Dora is forecast to assume a
northwest motion Thursday and Friday. The forecast track, closely
following the previous track and TVCN model consensus, continues to
become more northerly after Dora passes west of the date line.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will be minimal through tau 72.
With 18Z ECMWF SHIPS showing almost no Dora intensity drop through
tau 36, this advisory will only slowly weaken this system through
tau 60, with more pronounced weakening introduced afterwards as
Dora gains latitude and shear increases. The 18Z GFS SHIPS shows a
similar slow weakening trend, but through tau 24. Both SHIPS
versions keep Dora stronger at all tau than most intensity model
guidance, but Dora's demonstrated resilience increases confidence
that a slower weakening trend, at least initially, is reasonable.
Dora will eventually weaken to a post-tropical/remnant low, but
just after tau 120.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 166.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 12.0N 168.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 12.8N 172.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.7N 178.5E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 175.9E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.7N 171.1E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 19.1N 167.1E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

[aspen]

Dora might reach the international dateline as a major. When was the last time this happened? Ioke?

[Kingarabian]

I would say it's likely near 120-125kts regardless of ADT, when factoring what past recon found in similar systems in this general area.

[Ntxw]

Dora might reach the international dateline as a major. When was the last time this happened? Ioke?

Think 2015 Kilo did it at 110kts during crossing. 115kts on the other side.

[Sciencerocks]

130 knots is my estimate

[Ntxw]

Think she may be making that push for C5. W Ring band is thicker.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1689418265108320257

[USTropics]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5824/AdGzKn.gif

130 knots is my estimate

You can see the significant lightning strikes in the inner core on the last few frames of this loop. Those are typical of a strengthening hurricane with significant updrafts.

[cycloneye]

Look at the lightning strikes.

[Ntxw]

Dora is very close to where Walaka was back in 2018 when it hit cat 5.

Walaka


Dora

[cycloneye]

I hope that the CPHC folks dont leave it at 115kt.

[Hurricane2022]

I hope that the CNHC folks dont leave it at 115kt.

[cycloneye]

6.5

09/2330 UTC 11.6N 166.8W T6.5/6.5 DORA

TXPN27 KNES 100028
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 11.6N

D. 166.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0 WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. THE MET
IS 6.5 BASED ON A NORMALLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Kingarabian]

It's pushing cat.5 now.

[cycloneye]

125kt

EP, 05, 2023081000, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1669W, 125, 946, HU

[aspen]

The eye is shrinking on IR. Looks like another EWRC may be coming up, or maybe an eyewall meld. The last EWRC seemed to be a meld if I’m not mistaken.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely ERC incoming. Given eye temperature can’t be properly seen by geostationary satellite and polar orbiting satellite measured 23C (which tend to run a little hot historically), I do believe there is a good chance this was a Category 5 at peak around 0z today.