WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dora has appeared to have strengthened once more. The CDO is cooling down and the eye is warming simultaneously.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Dora is on track to pass far south of Johnston Island later today,
with large surf lasting through Thursday. Compact and powerful Dora
continues to have a well-defined eye with a ring of persistant and
symmetrical convection overnight. Satellite animation shows Dora has
started to move slightly north of west over the last few hours.
Subjective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 from PHFO and 5.5 from both SAB
and JTWC, and the CIMSS objective estimates between 104 and 112 kt,
show that Dora has changed little overnight. More recent satellite
images show the system developing colder cloud tops suggesting that
Dora has gone through some minor fluctuations and remains around
115 kt, thus have held the intensity.

The initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt. Model guidance
remains closely clustered through the remaining time Dora will be
exploring the central Pacific. Dora continues to move to the west,
along the southern edge of a strong ridge to the north. The westward
track will become west-northwestward later today as it moves along
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and turn to the northwest
Thursday as it approaches the date line. There remains more
variability in the track and speed as the tropical cyclone enters
the western Pacific basin on Friday. The forecast track remains
closely aligned with the previous advisory, and largely follows
the TVCN model consensus.

The environmental conditions surrounding, and immediately ahead of
Dora continue to be favorable, with the system moving into slightly
warmer waters today with neglible shear. Combined with little change
in intensity over the last 24 hours, and the 06Z ECMWF SHIPS having
indicated a steady state through 11/06Z, have held the intensity
higher than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.
Southwesterly deep layer shear will increase around hour 48, which
despite moving over even warmer waters at the time, is likely to
contribute to a weakening trend. The shear is expected to increase
as the system moves across the date line on Friday. The
forecast intensity keeps it a little higher than most of the models
in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for the
later periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 11.4N 164.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.8N 166.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 12.6N 170.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.4N 174.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.5N 177.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 15.6N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 177.2E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.7N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.9N 167.9E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

[Jr0d]

No recon.

I think the intensity is underestimated.

Just my opinion

I wish we got recon. It’s not that far from Hawaii, even though it’s not a threat to land. Definitely underestimated by at least 5-10 kt at various points throughout its life.

The CDO is cooling again, and we almost have a perfect W ring. If the eye can warm up again then this has a shot at T7.0

I would reason Dora has been at least close to cat 5 strength. While not as symmetrical as 6 to 12 hours ago, it still is an extremely intense hurricane.

Haven't looked at the swell charts but despite the small size, I imagine the south shores of Hawaii are getting insane swells.

[Hurricane2022]

Dora will likely return to Category 5 later today, but the CPHC probably won't have the luxury of putting this beast with winds above 125 kts on the warnings.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if its building high pressure (enhancing trades) or Dora is responsible for the devestating wind fueled fires on Maui island. If it is Dora, then it may become the costliest Hawaii hurricane since hurricane Lane, if not Iniki.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not sure if its building high pressure (enhancing trades) or Dora is responsible for the devestating wind fueled fires on Maui island. If it is Dora, then it may become the costliest Hawaii hurricane since hurricane Lane, if not Iniki.

Dora has obviously enhanced the pressure gradient but that's not really direct impact.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if its building high pressure (enhancing trades) or Dora is responsible for the devestating wind fueled fires on Maui island. If it is Dora, then it may become the costliest Hawaii hurricane since hurricane Lane, if not Iniki.

Dora has obviously enhanced the pressure gradient but that's not really direct impact.

Depends on what the officials pin it down. I'm hearing they're blaming Dora which is interesting.

[Cyclenall]

Dora looking better than overnight, more rainbands however. I definitely woundn't peg this at 115 kts.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sure if its building high pressure (enhancing trades) or Dora is responsible for the devestating wind fueled fires on Maui island. If it is Dora, then it may become the costliest Hawaii hurricane since hurricane Lane, if not Iniki.

Dora has obviously enhanced the pressure gradient but that's not really direct impact.

Depends on what the officials pin it down. I'm hearing they're blaming Dora which is interesting.

Summation of both, one is not always independent of the other. Texas in 2011 on the subsidence side of Lee moving into LA and building HP the gradient fanned a similar situation.

[Yellow Evan]

Much better this morning with eye finally warming and CDO expanding outward radially.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 091727

A. HURRICANE 05E (DORA)

B. 09/1700Z

C. 11.45N

D. 164.69W

E. ONE/GOES18

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DESSINO

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1689330742742958081

[aspen]

Stuck at 115 kt and up to 955mbar at 18z, despite a warmer eye and complete W ring. I don’t get it.

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2023080918, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1651W, 115, 955, HU

[Extratropical94]

Dora is on track to surpass 40 ACE units at 0Z (anything over 100 knots will do) and should be well above 50 by the end of the 5-day forecast period

[Ntxw]

While without harder, clear evidence a small cane like this will be tough for C5 operationally, I don't believe it has been sitting at minimal C4 either.

[Kingarabian]

Stuck at 115 kt and up to 955mbar at 18z, despite a warmer eye and complete W ring. I don’t get it.

Have to stick with the forecast for verification purposes. If it continues, next forecast will be something like "it appears resilient Dora has reintensified...".

[Yellow Evan]

115 knots sorta makes sense because somehow it hasn't reached B embedded. No, verification has nothing to do with this - if it would Dora would be much weaker (look at the days of weakening forecast).