ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

98L is looking in good shape in spite of the conditions.

Source - https://col.st/MHQ7z

[ChrisH-UK]

A NOAA buoy right near it has 39 knot (44.8mph) winds

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41139

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1693239701665141215




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1693242272203092051

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023082012, , BEST, 0, 194N, 384W, 40, 1002, LO

[aspen]

I’m getting flashback to that MDR invest last year which was clearly a 40-45 kt TC for a day or so, but was never upgraded.

[zzzh]

AL072023 - Tropical Storm EMILY

Well

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2023082012, , BEST, 0, 194N, 384W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1010, 250, 50, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EMILY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, TRANSITIONED, alA82023 to al072023,

[wxman57]

Better two days late than never...

[NDG]

Finally we have TS Emily.

[tolakram]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 201438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring
over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands
has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently
received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind
data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on
its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable
wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum
sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix.

The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the
west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily
should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains
steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn
to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low,
rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the
initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind
shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the
next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level
environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs
today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the
increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized
convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast
shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is
some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5
days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official
forecast for now.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[IcyTundra]

Honestly don’t think the NHC likes naming these weak short lived storms in the middle of the Atlantic after the 2020 season where they named practically everything and got some criticism for “inflating” the storm count.

[wwizard]

Honestly don’t think the NHC likes naming these weak short lived storms in the middle of the Atlantic after the 2020 season where they named practically everything and got some criticism for “inflating” the storm count.

I thought they totally dropped the ball on the January system because of this very thing. My thought is that if a system meets the criteria then it is what it is. I don't see how an "inflated" storm count would make any difference to anybody. The system is still what it is regardless if it has a name or not, or if it's a 1,000 miles from any humans or not. But if there's a threshold set and a system meets that threshold, then name the thing. Criticism be damned.

[ElectricStorm]

Honestly don’t think the NHC likes naming these weak short lived storms in the middle of the Atlantic after the 2020 season where they named practically everything and got some criticism for “inflating” the storm count.

I thought they totally dropped the ball on the January system because of this very thing. My thought is that if a system meets the criteria then it is what it is. I don't see how an "inflated" storm count would make any difference to anybody. The system is still what it is regardless if it has a name or not, or if it's a 1,000 miles from any humans or not. But if there's a threshold set and a system meets that threshold, then name the thing. Criticism be damned.

I'm pretty sure the NHC got a new director either last year or the year before. Maybe that has something to do with it.

Regardless it does seem like they're waiting much longer to classify systems this year than in years past. Both in the Atlantic and EPAC.

[wxman57]

Emily appears to be fading fast. Center exposed and expanding. Convection well off to the NE. Upgraded near the end of its life...

[AnnularCane]

I don't like to think this way but sometimes I do wonder if the criticism led to them seeming more conservative. Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. But that's why I tend to cringe these days whenever someone complains that something "shouldn't have been named."

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Emily continues to be in a highly sheared environment this evening,
with convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed
low-level center. A recent scatterometer (ASCAT-B) had a partial
pass over the system that showed winds around 40
kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and objective
satellite CIMMS ADT and AiDT were slightly lower with this
advisory. Given the satellite estimates and scatterometer
wind data, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Emily likely reached peak intensity earlier this afternoon, with a
gradual weakening trend expected over the next day or so. The
system is in a highly sheared environment, with shear forecast to
increase even more over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in
fairly good agreement that the system will become a remnant low in
a couple of days. While the NHC forecast has the system remaining a
remnant low throughout the period, there is some guidance, including
the ECMWF, that dissipate the system earlier. The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the forecast lies
near the corrected model consensus aids.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt, and a general
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days while the storm moves along the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. After that time, a turn to the north is
forecast while the storm moves around the west side of the ridge
and toward a weakness. The new track forecast is similar to the
previous, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope closest
to model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 25.3N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 27.5N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 32.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z 39.0N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

[cycloneye]

Bye.

AL, 07, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 209N, 414W, 35, 1005, LO