ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

It doesn't appear to have much of a future. Wind shear will increase as it nears or enters the Caribbean. Will probably move into Central America in a week as a wave. Might be classified as a depression at some point east of the Caribbean.

I'd be interested in hearing why you think this. Environment looks favorable over the next 3–days or so other than the possibility of dry air intrusions. SSTs are warm (much warmer than normal) and shear looks relatively weak over this period. Considering recent convective trends, I'd argue global models aren't resolving this compact structure well. If convection can persist throughout today, I like this system's chances for genesis. It's a big "if" for now.

[Teban54]

Mayyybe too early to say "I think this is a TC" yet, but certainly not 20/40:

[Kingarabian]

Too popcorny for it to be a TC but it's almost there. I'd say chances of TCG are near 70%. And yeah, global model's always struggle with TCs of this size.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1682399280076554245

[toad strangler]

There’s a lot of dry air just to the north of 95L. While the hurricane models show it maintaining a nice moisture pocket and being able to develop in a few days, I’m on the fence. It’s a tiny disturbance in a precarious situation with very marginal support from the global models. This could be a system that sneaks up on them, or a disturbance that initially shows promise before fizzling out.

I for one don't trust global modeling past a three or so days in the tropics and even that trust is a skeptical one. Just have to old school watch it.

[Nuno]

That structure doesn't look 20/40 to me

https://i.imgur.com/u0HSQhT.png

NHC has been very conservative with their formation chances this season, I would be curious as to the reasoning.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Too popcorny for it to be a TC but it's almost there. I'd say chances of TCG are near 70%. And yeah, global model's always struggle with TCs of this size.

I agree that it isn't there yet, but the structure is much better than most of the ones we have seen this season. The lower levels are fairly organized and the convection that is firing looks to be stacked over the center with some banding showing up. A couple more good sustained bursts and this could be off to the races.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The convection has been steadily increasing most of the day, and I'm only seeing a couple of small collapse boundaries, and with the dry air one would expect to see more of those.

[Sciencerocks]

[gatorcane]

It doesn't appear to have much of a future. Wind shear will increase as it nears or enters the Caribbean. Will probably move into Central America in a week as a wave. Might be classified as a depression at some point east of the Caribbean.

I'd be interested in hearing why you think this. Environment looks favorable over the next 3–days or so other than the possibility of dry air intrusions. SSTs are warm (much warmer than normal) and shear looks relatively weak over this period. Considering recent convective trends, I'd argue global models aren't resolving this compact structure well. If convection can persist throughout today, I like this system's chances for genesis. It's a big "if" for now.

I agree with WxMan57. Conditions will only get worse as it moves west especially once in the Caribbean as shear really increases due to a strengthening El Niño. All of the global models are showing this. Atlantic SSTs are running above normal but the EPAC is running way above normal and so should the shear across the Caribbean this season.

[SouthDadeFish]

It doesn't appear to have much of a future. Wind shear will increase as it nears or enters the Caribbean. Will probably move into Central America in a week as a wave. Might be classified as a depression at some point east of the Caribbean.

I'd be interested in hearing why you think this. Environment looks favorable over the next 3–days or so other than the possibility of dry air intrusions. SSTs are warm (much warmer than normal) and shear looks relatively weak over this period. Considering recent convective trends, I'd argue global models aren't resolving this compact structure well. If convection can persist throughout today, I like this system's chances for genesis. It's a big "if" for now.

I agree with WxMan57. Conditions will only get worse as it moves west especially once in the Caribbean as shear really increases due to a strengthening El Niño. All of the global models are showing this. Atlantic SSTs are running above normal but the EPAC is running way above normal and so should the shear across the Caribbean this season.

I'm sorry, but this is just not accurate. For example, SHIPS, which uses GFS conditions, shows shear remaining below 10 kt throughout the next 120 hours, which is quite favorable: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/230 ... _ships.txt . Perhaps conditions in the Caribbean are less favorable, but this system will have a sizable window over the next five days or so.

[South Texas Storms]

I think its proximity to dry air is going to be the main thing that prevents this system from becoming much. Quite a bit of it right now north of the system and that will likely continue over the next several days.

[chaser1]

Very nice looking feature and we all know the relative ease that a small compact disturbance could potentially organize compared to a broader expansive disturbance but.....ehh. I suppose I could make a weak case for this vigorous mid level spin-up "possibly" reflecting all the down to the surface around 12.6 & 39.4. The problem is that it's just SO shallow and tiny that any potential LLC right now, could well be nothing more then some little eddy spun off 2 hours from now. I am just not a fan of ignoring organizational and convective persistance. It gets "points" for better then anticipated model organization as well as what appears to be 29 C SST's. If I were a betting man and had to guess it's near-term 12 hour organization and consolodated convection appearance between:
1) maintain, 2) deteriorate 3) or improve -
I'd lean toward #2.
If it were mid August/September, i'd likely be a good deal more bullish.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1682431827363897357

@AndyHazelton
Seeing some arc clouds on the NE side of #95L, indicative of outflow from collapsing convection in a dry environment. Gonna be hard to get sustained convection in a dry environment - likely to see pulses up and down.

[chaser1]

NHC probably bumps this to 30/40 out of respect of present appearance but would likely want to see this through a couple diurnal cycles before getting too excited

[Blown Away]

Looking at this decent structure, the models are all mostly depicting a big undefined mess which might happen, but for now IMO the models are off.

[Teban54]

Recon scheduled in 3 days:
 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1682418766175502340

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/xUH453VSV64

[cycloneye]

Recon scheduled in 3 days:
https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1682418766175502340?t=7d5OcdisyqfX49LMmBbI-w&s=19

Yes. Already made the recon thread.

[chaser1]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gk3fP60s/F47105-BE-2-EE8-456-A-9217-796-D70357-EDF.jpg [/url]

Looking at this decent structure, the models are all mostly depicting a big undefined mess which might happen, but for now IMO the models are off.

I agree that it's satellite presentation looks quite impressive especially when you look at its transition from 24 hours ago, but I just dont think we have near enough to go on beyond what best track was seeing as a weak 1014 low. There's nothing to see at the surface that would validate how tilted or whether any LLC may even be closed at all. Heck, given near center arcing outfow boundries, the center could well be filling (or at least transitory). Btw, ICON, GFS, CMC, & NavGem were all depicting a weak 1013/1014 low in yesterday's 24 hr forecast. I think its appearance is primarily 850mb and higher up