WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

22.87 per a friend’s code. CSU doesn’t take into account overrides.

You're right! I created a spreadsheet to track all of the systems some years ago and it's 22.87 using operational history. I didn't realize CSU didn't account for that. If it holds 120kts next advisory would be 24.31.

Is there a link to that? I want to put the right numbers on the ACE Thread.

It's a personal spreadsheet. But you can add the 1.47 units difference from CSU. 22.87 for Dora, 49.31 for EPAC with Eugene's 18z 60kts 1.34.

[Ntxw]

With the current official forecast she could potentially yield 15-20 more units. That puts us 40-45 total, but given she has beaten the forecast several times, I'll make a guess she goes 50+. The only deterrent from 50-60 units is the relative fast forward speed.

[Sciencerocks]

This thing looks as strong as Dorian. What exactly would it take for this to receive an high enough estimate for the central Pacific hurricane center to go 5?

[cycloneye]

This thing looks as strong as Dorian. What exactly would it take for this to receive an high enough estimate for the central Pacific hurricane center to go 5?

The TC Post-Season Report will take a looong time to be released and there is a chance that it may be upgraded to 5.

[Astromanía]

This thing looks as strong as Dorian. What exactly would it take for this to receive an high enough estimate for the central Pacific hurricane center to go 5?

Recon, for it's size dvorak don't support a cat 5

[Yellow Evan]

This thing looks as strong as Dorian. What exactly would it take for this to receive an high enough estimate for the central Pacific hurricane center to go 5?

The TC Post-Season Report will take a looong time to be released and there is a chance that it may be upgraded to 5.

No chance without any evidence.

[Yellow Evan]

Back to T6.5.

[Yellow Evan]

[weeniepatrol]

Dvorak-based
intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB came in at 6.5,
continuing to support an initial intensity around 120 kt.

?????

[NDG]

Dora is a beautiful hurricane.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Could Dora maintain this intensity if at Hawaii’s latitude or does the slightly lower latitude allow systems to stay stronger??

[aspen]

Cloud tops look to be warming again. Will this be yet another temporary nighttime weakening trend and it’ll recover again tomorrow? Or is it finally weakening for real this time?

[869MB]

Could Dora maintain this intensity if at Hawaii’s latitude or does the slightly lower latitude allow systems to stay stronger??

It would have been much more difficult, even as an annular hurricane, if Dora was cruising to the west along the 19.5 N to 20.5 N Latitude because the Sea Surface Temperatures are 2 to 4 Degrees cooler than the latitude Dora is currently at...

[cycloneye]

Steady at 120kt.

EP, 05, 2023080700, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1431W, 120, 948, HU

[USTropics]

Could Dora maintain this intensity if at Hawaii’s latitude or does the slightly lower latitude allow systems to stay stronger??

It's a pretty sharp gradient in terms of actual SSTs:


You can see on the visible imagery, the presence of marine stratocumulus clouds just to the northeast of Dora is due to a much more stable air mass (in conjunction with a building high pressure area and less than ideal SSTs):

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Dora is extremely impressive. But almost as impressive is that sprawling STR to its NE.

[Kingarabian]

Could Dora maintain this intensity if at Hawaii’s latitude or does the slightly lower latitude allow systems to stay stronger??

It's a pretty sharp gradient in terms of actual SSTs:
https://i.imgur.com/sWL0kfb.png

You can see on the visible imagery, the presence of marine stratocumulus clouds just to the northeast of Dora is due to a much more stable air mass (in conjunction with a building high pressure area and less than ideal SSTs):
https://i.imgur.com/ASwE5cc.png

Yeah not with this -PDO/-PMM combo.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Dora remains a well-organized, compact and symmetric hurricane,
moving west in the central Pacific. A blend of the subjective dvorak
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC combined with the objective
estimates lends an initial intensity remaining at 120 kt. A partial
SAR pass this morning showed winds on the northeast side near 90 kt,
but may have missed some higher winds.

Additional fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next
several days as Dora continues a generally westward track along
27/28 C water, in a negligible wind shear environment. Satellite
data
shows significantly drier air several hundred miles north of Dora,
which if it is ingested into Dora. A slightly more defined
weakening trend is expected as some of that drier air is ingested
into Dora in a couple days. The intensity forecast continues to
follow the last few advisory packages for the first 36 hours, and
remains a little higher than the model consensus. Starting with 48
hours, the forecast intensity has been lowered a bit to keep it in
line with the overall pattern of the intensity models. As the
system moves into a more unfavorable shear environment beyond day
4, additional weakening is likely.

Very little change in the track forecast as models continue to be
very tightly clustered through the week. Dora will move to the west
along the southern edge of the ridge to the north, passing well
south of Hawaii over the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard