WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Let’s all give it up to Dora for exceeding everyone’s expectations.

I think most on here were expecting this. Systems like this seem to always be underestimated by the models.

[Yellow Evan]

Basically every TC with that eye temperature or warmer and Recon confirmation has been a Category 5 fwiw.

[Sciencerocks]

Like I said, I believe this was nearly as strong as Katrina and isabel...145-150 knots at its peak. It is probably still 140 knots.

Probably has pressures in the lower 920's or possibly as low as the mid 910's.

[Yellow Evan]

Let’s all give it up to Dora for exceeding everyone’s expectations.

I think most on here were expecting this. Systems like this seem to always be underestimated by the models.

Shear forecasts with this have completely waffled. I forecast 85 knots at the time late Friday night for that reason.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO cooling again.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 061806

A. HURRICANE 05E (DORA)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 12.85N

D. 141.05W

E. TWO/GOES18

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


TIMMERMAN

[ElectricStorm]

I would guess around 135-140kts, definitely higher than 120. What an impressive storm, it'll be interesting to see how far west this can get

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2023080618, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1412W, 120, 948, HU

[aspen]

Douglas, Darby, Dora. The trio is complete. All three had appearances just like this: very warm and clear stadium effect eyes with very symmetrical but not super cool CDOs, resembling Atlantic hurricanes where recon has found 130-140+ kt. Dvorak just doesn’t work super well for these kind of storms. IMO, Dora may have peaked as a high end C4 yesterday, weakened overnight, and is now 130 kt or so again.

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Dora



Hurricane Dorian

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN27 KNES 061830
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 12.9N

D. 141.0W

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T6.0/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT
OF 6.0 AFTER A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[Astromanía]

How much ACE has this produced so far?

[Ntxw]

How much ACE has this produced so far?

21.4 units.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

How much ACE has this produced so far?

21.4 units.

22.87 per a friend’s code. CSU doesn’t take into account overrides.

[Ntxw]

How much ACE has this produced so far?

21.4 units.

22.87 per a friend’s code. CSU doesn’t take into account overrides.

You're right! I created a spreadsheet to track all of the systems some years ago and it's 22.87 using operational history. I didn't realize CSU didn't account for that. If it holds 120kts next advisory would be 24.31.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm is a tiny buzz saw. I love it. Wildly exceeded expectations.

[cycloneye]

21.4 units.

22.87 per a friend’s code. CSU doesn’t take into account overrides.

You're right! I created a spreadsheet to track all of the systems some years ago and it's 22.87 using operational history. I didn't realize CSU didn't account for that. If it holds 120kts next advisory would be 24.31.

Is there a link to that? I want to put the right numbers on the ACE Thread.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Well-organized and compact Dora remains a very symmetric hurricane
as it begins its journey into the central Pacific. A well defined
clear eye with some marginal warming of cloud tops have been
observed on satellite over the last couple of hours. Dvorak-based
intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB came in at 6.5,
continuing to support an initial intensity around 120 kt. Recent
cloud top warming could suggest a weakening trend, but given Dora's
recent history of being stronger than the forecast, combined with no
scatterometer or other observations to the contrary, will maintain
the 120 kt intensity with this package.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next several
days as Dora moves over relatively warm water in a negligible wind
shear environment. Drier air to the north of the system is expected
to be ingested into the system within a few days and will help to
weaken the storm midweek. The intensity models are in agreement with
a weakening trend through the week, however they vary with regards
to how much weakening occurs as the week progresses. The CPHC
intensity forecast follows the NHC trend in the last few advisory
packages of being a little above the model consensus.

Dora is expected to move to the west along the southern edge of the
ridge to the north. On this track, Dora will pass well south of
Hawaii over the next several days. The model track guidance remains
very tightly clustered through the week, thus the forecast track
remains very close to the previous advisory.

Dora advisory information was originally transmitted under the
incorrect headers this has been corrected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 142.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard