ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Keep us posted. Story of Idalia goes beyond landfall. Gonna be nasty in coastal SC and also Valdosta looks to to take a big punch. Lots of bands coming for central and north Florida. Some are lined up to dump tons if you get stuck under as many N/S bands are setting up to refeed over themselves per radar. Biggest deal for the west coast of FL is the backside which in this case as the center moves north of your latitude and the winds go to the SSW/SW, water’s coming in.

Yep, bracing for the whooping in Valdosta while my family in Jacksonville and Lake City will be getting in some action too. Praying for them and all in Idalia‘s path. Hopefully the brick and concrete building I’m in will help shelter-wise.

How you making out Jax?

Hey Steve, doing good! I got what seemed to be the edge of the eyewall around 10:30-11am with tropical storm conditions. Heard some tree branches and some trees fall tho and more than half of the county is without power, but I only lost it for a few minutes. Overall, I believe we made it through ok (as far as I know now so far). Irma was more intense by comparison (at least in my locale).

[SecondBreakfast]

Glad to see my brain was working correctly on terminology last night…

https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/stat ... 25643?s=20

Dr. Marshall Shepherd (my record is my blue check)
@DrShepherd2013
Blue area is the wetlands aka Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia. Will it contribute a little latent heat flux to #HurricaneIdalia to slow weakening...maybe, maybe not...but something I always watch for given our research on Brown Ocean Effect....BTW, put The Swamp on your visit list

[JaxGator]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3351/QiPS3z.gif

Unusually high amount of lightning in the core for a weakening hurricane

Oh yeah, definitely saw a lot of lightning as the eyewall passed nearby in Valdosta.

[Steve]

Yep, bracing for the whooping in Valdosta while my family in Jacksonville and Lake City will be getting in some action too. Praying for them and all in Idalia‘s path. Hopefully the brick and concrete building I’m in will help shelter-wise.

How you making out Jax?

Hey Steve, doing good! I got what seemed to be the edge of the eyewall around 10:30-11am with tropical storm conditions. Heard some tree branches and some trees fall tho and more than half of the county is without power, but I only lost it for a few minutes. Overall, I believe we made it through ok (as far as I know now so far). Irma was more intense by comparison (at least in my locale).

Glad to hear it. Lots of live reports of 10+” just to your south.

[FLLurker32]

Power outages throughout Marion county are being resolved pretty quickly. Our Marion county sheriffs dept is currently establishing aid to bring to our neighbors NW of us that were hit hard. I’ll post more about legitimate ways to get direct aid to NW FL as I find out.

[JaxGator]

How you making out Jax?

Hey Steve, doing good! I got what seemed to be the edge of the eyewall around 10:30-11am with tropical storm conditions. Heard some tree branches and some trees fall tho and more than half of the county is without power, but I only lost it for a few minutes. Overall, I believe we made it through ok (as far as I know now so far). Irma was more intense by comparison (at least in my locale).

Glad to hear it. Lots of live reports of 10+” just to your south.

Damage reports? Just heard that there’s more damage reports near my locale than first thought, but still otherwise ok.

[MarioProtVI]

Glad Idalia didn’t pull an Ian overnight, would’ve been worse for the Big Bend. It just barely managed to clip C4 (though i think it’s borderline and prone to a downgrade just because of how it immediately weakened back afterwards - there is some precedent for NHC to do so), but unfortunately the timing of an EWRC still in process as it made landfall worsened some of the impacts.

[Iceresistance]

Power outages in Georgia has shot up to over 114K

[Woofde]

Epic. Port-a-potty just went rolling thru a parking lot on this guy's live stream

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-cha ... inney.html

That's the Porta potty that hit my car!

[Woofde]

Finally made it out of Perry. Got it pretty bad there, solid Cat 3 damage all around. A good number of roofs gone and with the majority having sizeable damage. Quite a few mobile homes and sheds ended up in the trees. It was really odd, everyone went from expecting a Cat 4, but after the inner core collapsed, it looked like not much would actually make it to the surface. That new eyewall strengthed with a vengeance, it caught us off guard with just how strong it got. It was kind of a rollercoaster of expections. Most damage happened as the winds switched directions. I don't usually stick around to document the damage ass it usually pretty depressing. This one was no exception. I did take a few pictures on my way out.

[Gums]

Salute!

Excuse my skeptic view, but I have been hard pressed to find catastrophic surge numbers or even pics....
looks like basic street flooding inland and five or six feet of water in the streets of many towns right on the coast...you know, throw a rock from deck and it hits normal high tide water.

Cedar Key was my prediction for over twn feet, but 6 or 7 feet does not scare me unless I built on a slab only 4 or 5 feet above sea level at high tide....or I am right on the beach and waves/surge erodes my foundation.....

Somehow, I feel the media or even the #:**@ is gaslighting us.

Gums opines...

[Ianswfl]

I know I'll be argued against to no end but I still say when you have two strong hurricanes in the same basin neither reaches top potential...


CONUS air sometimes side swipes cyclones that enter the GOM too...

Katrina did! I still think Katrina was a cat4 at landfall! After Katrina during the great intensity debate Stacey Stewart sent me a VERY detail and LONG email reply why he though Kat was still a cat4 at landfall. I think it was 140 first landfall, 135 second. Katrina did a lot of wind damage in MS. KAtrina and Rita were large so they sucked in drier air hours before landfall unlike a compact Camille. Idalia I think due to the area she moved into sucked in dry air due to the shape of the land in that area. But as we saw with Ida, Laura, Michael, cat4s don't always weaken in the northern Gulf!

Katrina still weakened from a cat 5 no? It peaked in the middle of the gulf

Yes. EWRC induced by drier air from the mainland and some shear as well.

[Ianswfl]

Finally made it out of Perry. Got it pretty bad there, solid Cat 3 damage all around. A good number of roofs gone and with the majority having sizeable damage. Quite a few mobile homes and sheds ended up in the trees. It was really odd, everyone went from expecting a Cat 4, but after the inner core collapsed, it looked like not much would actually make it to the surface. That new eyewall strengthed with a vengeance, it caught us off guard with just how strong it got. It was kind of a rollercoaster of expections. Most damage happened as the winds switched directions. I don't usually stick around to document the damage ass it usually pretty depressing. This one was no exception. I did take a few pictures on my way out.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230830/a63ec917dfb3790e0562d054052d6d5a.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230830/0555260fd8fb83f2765d86cf349516f6.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230830/5522e9424707be41e649b0897a1e0fc3.jpg

Looks cat2ish in your pics, granted Perry is a bit inland. Here in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte the wind damage in Ian looked a lot worse than that to the trees with defoilage in places stripped. That gas station canopy looks older compared to the newer ones that are more sturdy. We had one go out in Port Charlote but it crumbled a lot harder than that with the steel support beams failing totally, not tipping over.

[islandgirl45]

Salute!

Excuse my skeptic view, but I have been hard pressed to find catastrophic surge numbers or even pics....
looks like basic street flooding inland and five or six feet of water in the streets of many towns right on the coast...you know, throw a rock from deck and it hits normal high tide water.

Cedar Key was my prediction for over twn feet, but 6 or 7 feet does not scare me unless I built on a slab only 4 or 5 feet above sea level at high tide....or I am right on the beach and waves/surge erodes my foundation.....

Somehow, I feel the media or even the #:**@ is gaslighting us.

Gums opines...

The Weather Channel pictures out of Cedar Key are heartbreaking. Traditional older homes that were built on piers elevating them maybe a couple feet above ground, are swamped with what you're calling "basic street flooding inland and five or six feet of water in the streets." In other words, there is several feet of water inside the houses. Many if not most of these older homes may not be salvageable.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I don't really know what you were expecting but you don't need water to the roof of homes to be catastrophic. All it takes is a couple of feet of muddy sea water to come in your house and it is basically an entire rebuild. I've seen it many times in the communities where I live. Pretty much all of ones belongings from inside the home in a trash pile by the road because of a 'few feet' of water. I guess it really boils down to your definition of catastrophic but to me that would qualify.

Salute!

Excuse my skeptic view, but I have been hard pressed to find catastrophic surge numbers or even pics....
looks like basic street flooding inland and five or six feet of water in the streets of many towns right on the coast...you know, throw a rock from deck and it hits normal high tide water.

Cedar Key was my prediction for over twn feet, but 6 or 7 feet does not scare me unless I built on a slab only 4 or 5 feet above sea level at high tide....or I am right on the beach and waves/surge erodes my foundation.....

Somehow, I feel the media or even the #:**@ is gaslighting us.

Gums opines...

[Ubuntwo]

Salute!

Excuse my skeptic view, but I have been hard pressed to find catastrophic surge numbers or even pics....
looks like basic street flooding inland and five or six feet of water in the streets of many towns right on the coast...you know, throw a rock from deck and it hits normal high tide water.

Cedar Key was my prediction for over twn feet, but 6 or 7 feet does not scare me unless I built on a slab only 4 or 5 feet above sea level at high tide....or I am right on the beach and waves/surge erodes my foundation.....

Somehow, I feel the media or even the #:**@ is gaslighting us.

Gums opines...

Three main factors here: very compact radius of max winds, low density landfall site, and timing w/ low tide.

Cedar Key was outside the outer - let alone inner - eyewall. The island only experienced ~55kts of sustained onshore flow based on recon.



Peak onshore flow occurred only in the 2-4 mile stretch of coast where the eastern eyewall came ashore:



A nearly uninhabited marsh. The two coastal communities nearest to peak onshore flow (Fish Creek and Keaton Beach) sit on an area of coast less than perpendicular to the flow they experienced - they were not positioned to experience Idalia's max surge. Water levels there peaked after the eyewall moved onshore. As horrific as this storm was, its small size and landfall location were a bit of a saving grace.

[Gums]

Salute!


Make no mistake, I am very upset about the folks that had water in Big Bend and the west coast down to Tampa.

It is just that I have the pictures of Holly Beach and Waveland in my brain. Three of my family lost their homes in Katrina, not from wind but tidal surge and a failed levee. Water was seven feet high just two blocks from my old home in NOLA, which had none due to three foot pilings and not on a slab.

Later,

Gums sends...

[CrazyC83]

Going back through the data, it probably peaked at 110 kt at 0800Z, with a pressure of 940 mb. The SFMR was probably inflated by the shallow water in the area and the many islands, and the flight level winds (123 kt peak) support 111 kt at the surface.

As far as the landfall intensity (1130Z), I would set it at 100 kt, which likely was limited to almost uninhabited areas near the coastline. The pressure at the time I estimate was 950 mb. I'll write a full BT either later tonight or tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

Here in SAV, we had a gust around the low 40s within the last hour, the highest so far.

[LarryWx]

Some good news. Compared to the 5AM NHC forecast, it has weakened quite a bit more quickly than forecasted then. The 5AM had Idalia still with winds of 100 mph as of 2PM. But as of 2PM, winds were already down to 75.

The 11AM had adjusted for this quicker weakening because it was already down to 90 then. This updated forecast had it weakening from 90 at 11AM to 75 at 8PM. But with it already down to 75 at 2PM, it appears that it is weakening even more quickly than the 11AM NHC forecast.