ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

They pulled the trigger, Cat 4!!!!!!!!!

How many hours do we have to go before landfall

I estimate 2.5 hrs before landfall.

Edit: Maybe closer to 3 hrs from now.

[NDG]

Cat 4 officially now, though I do suspect she's peaked.

Probably, looks like EWR is on its way with its eye barely visible now on Satellite.

[NDG]

Wow! People are sleeping in this morning.

[PavelGaborik10]

EWRC well underway now as evident on radar.

Fortunately there's absolutely no time left for her to complete, landfall looks a mere 2-3 hours away.

[Clearcloudz]

I'm liking Reed Timmer stream so far. A lot of other cams have gone offline in cedar key.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/26FTVrcCtBw[/youtube]

[NDG]

Pressure not dropping any more.

091330 2907N 08354W 6971 02776 9567 +150 +136 200105 110 091 001 00
091400 2908N 08356W 6967 02737 9486 +190 +139 202081 101 087 005 00
091430 2909N 08358W 6975 02696 9454 +188 +131 203055 069 075 004 00
091500 2910N 08359W 6962 02696 9433 +192 +132 217034 048 047 004 00
091530 2910N 08401W 6967 02678 9415 +202 +123 242014 027 025 002 00
091600 2912N 08403W 6971 02680 9427 +196 +118 004004 009 023 001 03
$$

[chaser1]

Wow! People are sleeping in this morning.

....or, just now waking to the sound of a juicy rainband overhead Someone pass the coffee

[PavelGaborik10]

Pressure not dropping any more.

091330 2907N 08354W 6971 02776 9567 +150 +136 200105 110 091 001 00
091400 2908N 08356W 6967 02737 9486 +190 +139 202081 101 087 005 00
091430 2909N 08358W 6975 02696 9454 +188 +131 203055 069 075 004 00
091500 2910N 08359W 6962 02696 9433 +192 +132 217034 048 047 004 00
091530 2910N 08401W 6967 02678 9415 +202 +123 242014 027 025 002 00
091600 2912N 08403W 6971 02680 9427 +196 +118 004004 009 023 001 03
$$

EWRC came at the perfect time to stop her from making a historic cat 5 run.

As bad as things are, it certainly could've been worse.

Idalia has peaked.

[La Sirena]

Those poor folks in southeast Georgia and SC are waking up to a hurricane warning this morning

[Beer Belly]

I am amazed how strong she is, while having such a tiny area of hurricane force winds. The strong wind area may weaken & expand as it makes landfall.
>75mph wind field is only ~30 miles in diameter.

[NDG]

Saved loop.

[PavelGaborik10]

Saved loop.

https://i.imgur.com/GiyOgP7.gif

The best thing for the storm right now would be for her to allow that ragged inner eyewall to fully collapse, fortunately I don't believe there's enough time for that to transpire and allow for further intensification.

She's certainly looking much worse than an hour ago.

[GCANE]

On IR, eye is being obscured by the outflow of the rotating hot tower.
The eye is ragged on radar but still there.
Inner eyewall convection looks to be weakening.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696817385536373235

Zero Cat. 4-5 #hurricanes on record have been within 100 miles of Idalia's current location. #Idalia has just reached Cat. 4 intensity with max winds of 130 mph.

[NDG]

Eastern eyewall where the Cat 4 winds were found before 4 AM has weakened some.

URNT15 KNHC 300925
AF305 1310A IDALIA HDOB 34 20230830
091630 2913N 08404W 6969 02695 9461 +171 +123 058015 017 023 001 03
091700 2915N 08403W 6951 02722 9470 +165 +130 093019 020 /// /// 03
091730 2915N 08401W 6948 02722 9466 +166 +132 124026 033 072 006 00
091800 2915N 08359W 6959 02710 9459 +177 +136 138043 048 093 003 00
091830 2915N 08357W 6978 02700 9491 +157 +141 156066 076 098 004 00
091900 2915N 08356W 6947 02756 9514 +152 +148 163087 093 098 003 00
091930 2915N 08354W 6958 02770 9550 +143 //// 164108 113 097 006 01
092000 2915N 08353W 6976 02770 9584 +137 //// 169114 118 092 006 01
092030 2914N 08351W 6959 02813 9603 +136 //// 169108 109 085 008 01
092100 2914N 08350W 6982 02806 9640 +123 //// 168107 108 080 007 01
092130 2914N 08348W 6944 02873 9651 +141 +107 170107 108 075 005 00
092200 2914N 08347W 6980 02850 9673 +143 +105 175101 106 071 005 00
092230 2914N 08345W 6963 02888 9690 +144 +103 175094 098 067 003 00
092300 2914N 08343W 6966 02903 9702 +152 +101 177088 091 062 003 00
092330 2914N 08341W 6965 02921 9718 +152 +100 177082 086 058 003 00

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696817385536373235

Zero Cat. 4-5 #hurricanes on record have been within 100 miles of Idalia's current location. #Idalia has just reached Cat. 4 intensity with max winds of 130 mph.

And some out there keep saying that record warm waters don't matter.

[Fancy1002]

So far this seems to be a year of rare location strikes.

[GCANE]

5000 CAPE in Idalia's core

[GCANE]

High STP on the SE of Idalia extending well into mid FL.
Associated with high CAPE and Helicity.
Looks to be a prime tornado producer over a large area today SE GA to mid FL.

[tolakram]

saved loop