ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks like this AF recon will stay there for a couple of more hours, NOAA recon taking off in 45 minutes.

E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z

[Blown Away]

Last minute NE wobble?

[NDG]

That eye keeps getting smaller and smaller, it is going to be tough for some chasers to be in the eye, could miss it by just a few miles if they are unable to readjust their position.
For a minute it took a nice jog to the NE but now is back to a more NNE heading.

[Fancy1002]

Looks like this AF recon will stay there for a couple of more hours, NOAA recon taking off in 45 minutes.

E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z

Good to hear.

[NDG]

It still has a good 3 hours before landfall more than enough time to reach Cat 4 if not Cat 5.

[canebeard]

Is the plane going to make another attempt through on its way back to base.

They have enough gas left in the tank to make a couple more passes.

Yea, butt that rookie navigator on board just used up his case of toilet tissue during the last pass.

[NDG]

Extrap 940 mb, NE eyewall not as strong as the eastern.

082400 2900N 08408W 6995 02632 9401 +204 +127 341024 033 040 008 00

[kevin]

Extrapolated pressure down to 940.1 mb, 117 kt FL, 108 kt SFMR in the weaker NE eyewall.

[NDG]

The lightning in the western eyewall during the past few minutes is insane!!!

[kevin]

Based on the intensification trend I expect that if they do another pass they'll find support for 938-939 mb and 115 kt.

[PavelGaborik10]

Radar presentation looks worse.

[NDG]

Double wind max, could be getting ready for an EWR.

[Blown Away]

The late NE jog taking Idalia over the most unpopulated Florida coastline and maybe keeping Tally out of the extreme eyewall.

[NDG]

The late NE jog taking Idalia over the most unpopulated Florida coastline and maybe keeping Tally out of the extreme eyewall.

With that small eyewall Tally could very well miss the worst of the winds, unless it expands over the next few hours.

[PavelGaborik10]

Double wind max, could be getting ready for an EWR.

https://i.imgur.com/vMk11gE.png

No time for it to complete either, this is great news and would explain the degrade in radar presentation over the last 30 minutes.

[NDG]

They pulled the trigger, Cat 4!!!!!!!!!

[Blown Away]

Not sure if stormchasers can catch that eye unless they are setup on the lonely stretch of Hwy 98…

[Fancy1002]

They pulled the trigger, Cat 4!!!!!!!!!

How many hours do we have to go before landfall

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1696809498265141298

[PavelGaborik10]

Cat 4 officially now, though I do suspect she's peaked.