WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Guamphoon]

It appears the center of Mawar will pass just off Guam's northern coast instead. This puts Guam in the more robust southern eyewall, however!

https://i.imgur.com/Y7sXYd0.png
https://i.imgur.com/a1G8MVY.png

Could have been a lot worse. So far, this is still weaker than 2018 Mangkhut. It could still get stronger but seems weaker than anticipated if we are anywhere near CPA right now.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Mangkhut

[doomhaMwx]

It appears the center of Mawar will pass just off Guam's northern coast instead. This puts Guam in the more robust southern eyewall, however!

https://i.imgur.com/Y7sXYd0.png
https://i.imgur.com/a1G8MVY.png

Could have been a lot worse. So far, this is still weaker than 2018 Mangkhut. It could still get stronger but seems weaker than anticipated if we are anywhere near CPA right now.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Mangkhut

That's interesting, cause Mangkhut passed north of Rota. Mangkhut was a more expansive storm though, so I guess that's why it was felt more strongly in Guam compared to Mawar thus far.

[Hayabusa]

00Z Euro became south again, goes over the Batanes islands

[Hayabusa]

06Z synop from Guam airport, 55 knots wind speed, 78 knots gust, 979.8 mb MSLP, -8.9 mb pressure change in the last 3 hours

AAXX 24064 91212 11316 83255 10261 20250 39718 49798 56089 60071 761// 90554 333 91078 96010 555 92406

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[dexterlabio]

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/MIRH02M.png

Reminds me of 2015 Goni's track.

[Guamphoon]

https://youtube.com/shorts/Fq0IO0f2cwY?feature=share3

It has picked up quite a bit the past hour

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Mawar will pass north of Guam and possible over Rota

[doomhaMwx]

It's rapidly reorganizing while passing near/over the northern coast of Guam!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lots of lightning. May be a sign that Mawar is actually strengthening at the moment
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1661299796387446784

[doomhaMwx]

Based on the reemerging eye on satellite images, looks like Mawar didn't make landfall over Guam. 09Z position updates by JTWC and JMA also have the storm centered north of the island. Something important to note in future discussions, though this assessment may still change in the best track.




So, this would technically mean that Guam still hasn't seen a category 4 landfall since 1976, and a category 5 landfall since 1962!
 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1661100429655314432




(Edited to fix broken image link).

[Guamphoon]

Definitely on the wet side of the storm .

Rainfall has increased dratically. Water forcing its way.in through windows and shutters.

Lightening is rapid, but cannot discern any thunder over the wind.

Pressure is about 973 at my place in Tamuning. Was 974 an hour ago. Doesn't seem to be dropping or rising much at this point.

[Foxfires]

Based on the reemerging eye on satellite images, looks like Mawar didn't make landfall over Guam. 09Z position updates by JTWC and JMA also have the storm centered north of the island. Something important to note in future discussions, though this assessment may still change in the best track.

https://i.imgur.com/G8PpoHR.png
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp02232409.gif

So, this would technically mean that Guam still hasn't seen a category 4 landfall since 1976, and a category 5 landfall since 1962!
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1661100429655314432

Didn't Pongsona technically make landfall on Guam as a category 4? The Northern part of Guam was in its large eye, although not at the center of said eye.

[al78]

Was Paka 1997 another near miss?

[doomhaMwx]

Based on the reemerging eye on satellite images, looks like Mawar didn't make landfall over Guam. 09Z position updates by JTWC and JMA also have the storm centered north of the island. Something important to note in future discussions, though this assessment may still change in the best track.

https://i.imgur.com/G8PpoHR.png
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp02232409.gif

So, this would technically mean that Guam still hasn't seen a category 4 landfall since 1976, and a category 5 landfall since 1962!
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1661100429655314432

Didn't Pongsona technically make landfall on Guam as a category 4? The Northern part of Guam was in its large eye, although not at the center of said eye.

That's an interesting point. The definition of "landfall" can vary between sources, but for the sake of comparing records, I think the definition by the NHC is more appropriate.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline, where, the center is the vertical axis of a tropical cyclone, usually defined by the location of minimum wind or minimum pressure.
- So, I would count landfall as when the "actual center" (where the minimum pressure is) passes over land.

[doomhaMwx]

A personal weather station on western Guam is still reporting data after recording a max gust of 206kph (111kts) tonight, plus a daily rainfall of >500mm!




Update: Max gust of 240kph (130kts) at 22:14 CHST (12:14Z)!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/macedo_weather/status/1661341627636408322

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/gingercruz/status/1661322627175297024

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[doomhaMwx]

00Z and 06Z estimates were slightly lowered to 115kts.

02W MAWAR 230524 1200 13.8N 144.7E WPAC 120 940
02W MAWAR 230524 0600 13.6N 145.2E WPAC 115 947
02W MAWAR 230524 0000 13.0N 145.6E WPAC 115 947