ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

991mb extrap from NOAA plane this pass

[tolakram]

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA eye drop supports around 993-994mb, slightly up this pass

[zzzh]

Such a tight pressure gradient per the recon.

[galaxy401]

All four hurricane models now have Tammy becoming a significant hurricane north of the islands, and 3 of the 4 have it becoming a hurricane within the next 12 hours before weakening near the islands before re-strengthening again. Not sure I completely buy the short term hurricane solution yet but given tonight's trends it's not impossible. Looks like it's pretty likely Tammy ends up becoming much stronger than I originally expected it to.

Those models nailed it.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What should we expect in Barbados

[abajan]

What should we expect in Barbados

I'm no meteorologist but I think there's a good chance we'll get tropical-storm-force gusts at some point tonight.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1715392299922755614

[zal0phus]

How strong could Tammy reasonably get? It already seems like it's overperforming

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php

[wxman57]

What should we expect in Barbados

Winds are fairly light in Barbados, currently. However, there is a feeder band just south of Barbados that will be moving north into you this evening. That feeder band could produce a few inches of rain and some gusty wind.

[wxman57]

How strong could Tammy reasonably get? It already seems like it's overperforming

Small storms, like Tammy, can fluctuate up and down in intensity quite rapidly. Probably Cat 1 north of the islands, maybe Cat 2 possible as it accelerates out to sea to the NE.

[HurricaneRyan]

Definitely making up for Philippe

[ThunderForce]

Here's the latest 48 hour microwave imagery for Tammy. The slowdown and strengthening can be seen here, and both are pretty concerning. Hoping that the Leewards and Windwards won't get much damage from this.


I've been getting these GIFs from this website. It's at the bottom of the page in "MIMIC-TC".
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/summary/summary.20L_2023.html

[Chris90]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1715392299922755614

Tammy really had to work hard to get that record. Tomas became a hurricane at 60.1W on October 30th back in 2010.

Interesting that they are both the T-named storms, later in October, affecting the same general area.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Unofficial reports saying the storm is wobbling wsw is this true ?

Also saying Barbados could have greater impacts as a result

[wxman57]

Unofficial reports saying the storm is wobbling wsw is this true ?

Also saying Barbados could have greater impacts as a result

Any impacts in Barbados will be from that feeder band south of the island, not from anything near Tammy's center. The center has already made its closest approach.

[wxman57]

I think Tammy is going through one of those fluctuations that is common with weak storms. Looks a lot less impressive on satellite now. Outflow boundaries shooting out from the central convection. Last recon pass indicated maybe 55-60 kt winds.

[aspen]

How strong could Tammy reasonably get? It already seems like it's overperforming

I think it’ll stay around 60-70 kt for the next 2-3 days. The hurricane models have been showing it developing a tight core like we saw verify today, but shear keeps it in check from bombing out. However, they’ve been showing shear lessening and a more persistent eyewall building once it gets north of the islands in 4-5 days, so maybe it could peak as a Cat 2-3 there.

[cycloneye]

For Msbee and Patti in St Marteen, there is now a Hurricane Warning.

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
215 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Hurricane Warning for
St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Anguilla.

$$
Forecaster Brown