ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 17, 2023093000, , BEST, 0, 177N, 558W, 45, 1002, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Question: While the source of shear that's affecting Rina is obvious, where is the shear affecting Philippe coming from?

[Ubuntwo]

Question: While the source of shear that's affecting Rina is obvious, where is the shear affecting Philippe coming from?

Philippe's anticyclone is offset to the southwest:

[Nimbus]

06Z GFS still showing Philippe stalled and strengthening a safe distance from the islands at 72 hours.
Of course they may need high surf advisories.

[cycloneye]

Is now forecast to be a hurricane.

The intensity forecast remains tricky and is complicated by
competing positive and negative environmental factors. On one hand,
moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear is likely to continue at
least for the next 48 hours. However, the magnitude of the shear
will depend on Philippe's exact location, and it could also be
offset by a more diffluent upper-level environment. Since the storm
has already been overachieving in the sheared environment, the NHC
intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening during the next few
days, and is near or just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids
through 60 hours. The atmosphere could become more favorable for
strengthening after that time, and the NHC forecast now shows
Philippe reaching hurricane intensity while it recurves toward the
subtropical Atlantic. It's worth noting that this new forecast is
still on the conservative side, and that many of the intensity
models and consensus aids are at least 20 kt higher on days 4 and 5.
Only the ECMWF and its SHIPS and LGEM derivatives remain on the
weaker end of the scale and don't bring Philippe to hurricane
strength.

[cycloneye]

Center located closer to convection, now 30 miles. Last night it was 75 miles away.

A. 17L (PHILIPPE)

B. 30/1200Z

C. 17.2N

D. 56.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED 30 NM FROM THE DG OVERCAST
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 AND THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

AL, 17, 2023093012, , BEST, 0, 170N, 561W, 45, 999, TS

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Philippe has striped Rina, Philippe main circulation is only half covered as well with the main convection south east. This is could limit Philippe's development until it sorts itself out.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Looks like Philippe has striped Rina, Philippe main circulation is only half covered as well with the main convection south east. This is could limit Philippe's development until it sorts itself out.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/364/FVzkod.gif [/url]

The moment Rina gets away and dissipates, is when Philippe will shine.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like Philippe has striped Rina, Philippe main circulation is only half covered as well with the main convection south east. This is could limit Philippe's development until it sorts itself out.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/364/FVzkod.gif [/url]

The moment Rina gets away and dissipates, is when Philippe will shine.

This is playing out very similar to what the GFS has been showing for days; Rina being absorbed as it rotated around to the N of Phillippe. It will be interesting to see if he can strengthen to a strong hurricane now as the GFS has also been showing.

[cycloneye]

Plane going to make the first pass shortly and we will see how exposed is the center or is close to convection, how is the pressure and how strong are the winds.

[cycloneye]

The highest winds found so far.

172400 1522N 05446W 8435 01560 0120 +134 +068 176034 035 051 044 00
172430 1524N 05446W 8419 01570 0111 +137 +067 179036 045 047 036 00
172500 1526N 05446W 8409 01571 0097 +140 +068 184046 049 048 033 00

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 17, 2023093018, , BEST, 0, 164N, 564W, 45, 999, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 17, 2023100100, , BEST, 0, 162N, 568W, 45, 999, TS

[Sciencerocks]