ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023101218, , BEST, 0, 92N, 242W, 25, 1010, LO

[ThunderForce]

The fact we have yet another possible MDR developing storm in October during a strong El Nino is abnormal. Very abnormal.

Hoping this thing either doesn't develop at all, or develops quickly enough that it'll recurve before making landfall anywhere.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited and disorganized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system early next week, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of the week while moving westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Keeps dipping.

AL, 94, 2023101300, , BEST, 0, 83N, 247W, 25, 1010, LO

[Hurricane2022]

Keeps dipping.

AL, 94, 2023101300, , BEST, 0, 83N, 247W, 25, 1010, LO

https://i.imgur.com/UHkFpgO.png

The further south 94L moves, the greater the chances that our friends who live on the Caribbean islands and you will suffer heavy consequences. But let's wait and see what happens in the next few days before drawing conclusions.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited and
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. However, the
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development of this system by early next week. A tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101300, , BEST, 0, 85N, 249W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 94, 2023101306, , BEST, 0, 85N, 261W, 25, 1010, LO

[al78]

The fact we have yet another possible MDR developing storm in October during a strong El Nino is abnormal. Very abnormal.

Hoping this thing either doesn't develop at all, or develops quickly enough that it'll recurve before making landfall anywhere.

Or gets ripped apart by wind shear. Given Philippe, Rina and now Sean have followed that scenario, I would not be surprised to see this disturbance go the same way. We should be out of the MDR threats to land now although this year seems to have little interest in climatology.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a few
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of
this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins
to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as
the system moves steadily westward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[LarryWx]

Going back to 1950, here are the latest TS+ hits from the east on the Lesser Antilles:

- Alice of 1954 was cat 1 H in Leewards Jan 2 moving WSW:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica ... ember_1954)



- Tomas of 2010 was 100 mph cat 2 H in Windwards Oct 30:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Tomas



- Helena of 1963 was TS in Leewards Oct 26-7:

*During El Nino*

https://www.meteo-tropicale.fr/en/detai ... m=AL091963



- Jose of 1999 was cat 1 H in Leewards Oct 20:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jose_(1999)



- Joan of 1988 was TS in Windwards Oct 15:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Joan–Miriam



- Gonzalo of 2014 was cat 1 H in Leewards Oct 13:

*During El Nino*

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gonzalo

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101312, , BEST, 0, 86N, 272W, 25, 1010, LO

[LarryWx]

I can now add pre-1950 latest Lesser Antilles TS+ hits on record. What’s odd is that while there are none on record for Oct 10+ for the years 1899-1942, there are a whopping 7 just during the 12 year period of 1887-1898, including three during El Niño!

Starting from latest:

- Dec 7, 1887, TS Windwards *during weak El Nino*
- Nov 27-9, 1896, TS Windwards to Leewards *during strong El Nino*
- Nov 27-8, 1878, TS Leewards
- Nov 1-2, 1888, TS Windwards to Leewards *during superstrong El Nino*
- Oct 29, 1867, 110 knots cat 3 H Leewards
- Oct 27, 1898, TS Leewards
- Oct 15, 1895, TS Windwards
- Oct 12, 1891, TS Windwards
- Oct 11-12, 1894, H (cat 1?) Windwards to Leewards
- Oct 11, 1943, TS Windwards

[Blown Away]

AL, 94, 2023101312, , BEST, 0, 86N, 272W, 25, 1010, LO

Seems to be taking shape just W of @9N/28W..

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by the end of the
weekend while the disturbance begins to move westward across the
central tropical Atlantic. Additional development is expected after
that, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early
to middle portion of next week as the system moves steadily westward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Nimbus]

There are some thunderstorms and maybe even a low level circulation near 9.26 N -28.56.
Looks like it is becoming better organized.
Not sure about the shear forecast as this tracks further west, if there is high pressure to the north shear is usually less destructive.

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101318, , BEST, 0, 91N, 287W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

Looking much better tonight.

[cycloneye]

And they go up to 40% in 2 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing near an area
of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, although recent satellite images indicate that the
surface circulation remains broad. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early to middle portion of next week as the system moves westward
or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023101400, , BEST, 0, 91N, 288W, 25, 1009, LO

[Sciencerocks]