ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Destin looks “right now” like the landfall area.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's been a while since I've seen an invest thread almost getting to page 2 this soon after being made. The last one was probably pre-Ian.

It's only because it's Florida. An other state and it wouldn't be near this active

[cycloneye]

It's been a while since I've seen an invest thread almost getting to page 2 this soon after being made. The last one was probably pre-Ian.

The sure thing is that this thread will have a lot of pages due to the location and how will the intensity be of future Idalia.

[tolakram]

SO now that the GFS finally shows a storm we trust the GFS? Objectively, split the difference in my opinion, and expect landfall to be somewhere where neither model shows at the moment. I'm worried that much like Harold the models are catching up slowly.

[Ian2401]

It's been a while since I've seen an invest thread almost getting to page 2 this soon after being made. The last one was probably pre-Ian.

It's only because it's Florida. An other state and it wouldn't be near this active

The page over on talkin tropics already had like 12 pages lol this forum loves florida

[CrazyC83]

I believe timing is the key. There will be a trough coming in next week, but where the system is in relation will dictate the track. A faster track would mean farther west on the northern Gulf Coast, a slower track opens up the Florida Peninsula.

[Spacecoast]

UW-CIMSS TCTrak:

[TomballEd]

I think it is a little soon to post a particular Florida city based on the GFS. GEFS are somewhere in Florida, TT GEFS means aren't but N of Tampa seems the densest grouping, but they are ensemble members over all of Florida but the very W edge of the P' handle and extreme SW Florida. I'm picturing a day of competing LLCs and where the exact center forms is impossible to nail down completely. How it develops over or near the Yucatan can't be nailed down. Canadian ensembles close to GFS ensembles in track, although tending to be stronger.

SHIPS is a solid Cat 1. I'd post images, but there doesn't seem to be a file upload capacity and hot linking seems frowned upon.

[CrazyC83]

I think it is a little soon to post a particular Florida city based on the GFS. GEFS are somewhere in Florida, TT GEFS means aren't but N of Tampa seems the densest grouping, but they are ensemble members over all of Florida but the very W edge of the P' handle and extreme SW Florida. I'm picturing a day of competing LLCs and where the exact center forms is impossible to nail down completely. How it develops over or near the Yucatan can't be nailed down. Canadian ensembles close to GFS ensembles in track, although tending to be stronger.

SHIPS is a solid Cat 1. I'd post images, but there doesn't seem to be a file upload capacity and hot linking seems frowned upon.

At this point, we can't even close the door to further west, although the ridge would have to break down first. It's all about timing. The fact is that it is not a long time to prepare considering there isn't even a center yet and landfall would be less than 5 days away.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized,
with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined
low-level circulation. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

Westerlies kicking up fast south of 18N
With the Anti-Cyclone, could spin up fast and hard.

[wxman57]

Between EC & GFS looks most likely. NHC would probably start advisories on Monday. Maybe a PTC to start with at 21Z Monday, since it may not be at TD yet and watches would be needed for 48 hrs out.

With the upper high over Bahamas and low in west-central Gulf, should be a sheared storm by Wed pm.

[MississippiWx]

My thinking is that Franklin is going to play a role in how fast 93L turns north and east. Look at the difference in just the 24 hour placement of where models thought Franklin would be today and where it actually is located. It's a pretty drastic change. Franklin is being very stubborn to turn north and this is slowing down the development of any weakness that would pull 93L north and east. When you factor this in with the consolidation of a low that is rotating around a larger monsoonal gyre, the eventual track is a lot more complicated than face value.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Between EC & GFS looks most likely. NHC would probably start advisories on Monday. Maybe a PTC to start with at 21Z Monday, since it may not be at TD yet and watches would be needed for 48 hrs out.

With the upper high over Bahamas and low in west-central Gulf, should be a sheared storm by Wed pm.

When that ULL to the west moves out this should be right under an anticyclone. The ULL is moving into Mexico at a pretty good clip right now. I don't see there being that much shear in a couple of days

[ObsessedMiami]

It's been a while since I've seen an invest thread almost getting to page 2 this soon after being made. The last one was probably pre-Ian.

It's only because it's Florida. An other state and it wouldn't be near this active

The page over on talkin tropics already had like 12 pages lol this forum loves florida

Did someone say Florida?? Season greetings to all board folks. Curious about this track

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like an LLC is trying to form around 19N 85W

[NDG]

Let's not forget that the GFS, for what is worth, did a good job in it forecasting Harold to intensify right before landfall.

I thought GFS didn't even show Harold forming until almost the last minute?

It was more on Franklin that it failed on development, it was inconsistent on development with Harold, and its ensembles were also bearish, but once the GFS locked on it, it showed it strengthening right before landfall like it did.

[tolakram]

COD loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cozumel-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[TheBigO]

It wouldn’t be the start of college football season if a tropical storm/hurricane didn’t threaten the start of UCF’s season… hopefully Thursday’s season opener isn’t rained out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like an LLC is trying to form around 19N 85W

Definitely some rotation going on under there... I might place it a hair further north but looks like you're looking in the right spot.