ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

[Blown Away]

Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wxb6GfNk/642-A4116-9-C6-F-452-B-94-C8-D1-A3-B949-CEF1.jpg [/url]

Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.

Why you say is going to get trapped?

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wxb6GfNk/642-A4116-9-C6-F-452-B-94-C8-D1-A3-B949-CEF1.jpg [/url]

Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.

Why you say is going to get trapped?

90L continues moving faster almost due W when it’s expected to move WNW and won’t gain enough latitude to allow trough to tug it NE. Or it doesn’t develop and continues W into CA. Mostly it’s b/c I put a lot of value in simple climatology and current modeling does not fit.

[Blown Away]

12z EPS… Much more uncertainty from GOM to OTS.

[Nimbus]

Stronger systems all recurve 958 mb is a strong hurricane.
Weaker systems could miss and there is a timing issue depicted on the latest Euro where the ridge could trap any weaker storms that do.
So no guarantee of an OTS outcome yet.

[Spacecoast]

Good observation(s)..
It's looks like some 12z EPS members have drifted westward, and it remains true that the stronger systems get pulled N earlier.
My observation is : Where did all the members go?
Many members (not shown) have chosen not to participate, (or were too weak).

Clearly 6z (& previous EPS runs), had close to 51 members, while the 12z has significantly less.

[gatorcane]

EPS consensus shows a lot of shear in the area just north of Hispaniola. No wonder the ensembles are generally not as strong:

[Blown Away]

EPS consensus shows a lot of shear in the area just north of Hispaniola. No wonder the ensembles are generally not as strong:

https://i.postimg.cc/HLTYZg9s/eps-shear-watl-21.png

90L has a tough road with the Caribbean, land, and shear.
12z EPS has a very wide range of possibilities.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS more reasonable with an up and out over moving way W and pulled NE from Caribbean during August. Could be nasty for DR/PR.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with a 969MB hurricane clipping Halifax and landfalling in Newfoundland. Quite a shift west.

[Spacecoast]

Super-ensemble....

18z GEFS:slightly stronger than 12z,through the middle of Hispaniola:

[SFLcane]

Huge spread…

[Ianswfl]

Could we see something similar to Jeanne? Weak hurricane or TS into Haiti, reorganizes after getting shredded then gets trapped and moves west? Models a couple days ago was showing this.

[Hurrilurker]

Could we see something similar to Jeanne? Weak hurricane or TS into Haiti, reorganizes after getting shredded then gets trapped and moves west? Models a couple days ago was showing this.

If it stays weak and more south I think it could thrive, since there’s a large pocket of very low shear over Jamaica. That could really power it up and by the time it turns north the strong shear currently over Cuba could move or dissipate.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS gets to 993mb before Hispanola, and then slams Bermuda at 962mb.

Kind of an odd track on this run but if it can get north of the islands intact I think there's potential for a more significant storm.

[IsabelaWeather]

0z GFS gets to 993mb before Hispanola, and then slams Bermuda at 962mb.

Kind of an odd track on this run but if it can get north of the islands intact I think there's potential for a more significant storm.

I wonder if this storm going up the mona channel is still a possibility. Would be interesting to see how it reacts if it did.

[tolakram]

GFS still showing some deepening as it makes the north turn.

[tolakram]

HAFS-A shows a pretty decent storm.



HWRF does not show as strong, but lowest pressure over land (1001 before landfall, 995 after)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with a hit on Halifax, Novia Scotia. I am getting somewhat concerned that this system might not just recurve out to sea as models are hinting at a large ridge building over Eastern Canada and over the Northern Atlantic:

[aspen]

12z HWRF has a disorganized named storm tomorrow morning.