TomballEd wrote:I know it faces issues, but of the lemons, oranges and cherries it looks best, to me, of all of them. Hard to tell from satellite, but it may not be that far from closing a circulation.
It has a vigorous low-level circulation, this is evident in satellite imagery:
If you were to just look at the low-levels, you would say this area should be dominant:
But the issue is, if we look further up at 500mb (the upper-levels), it paints a different picture:
As this continues to gain latitude, the environment becomes unfavorable, and there isn't much there at the upper-levels to sustain it. You can see this in WV imagery as well as the 06z ECMWF sounding for the area this is tracking into in the next 24 hours:
At 42 hours, there is barely a reflection of vorticity at the upper-levels (the dominant feature is the area to the SW of 99L):