EPAC: HILARY - Recon

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 181718
AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 29 20230818
170930 2017N 10912W 4655 06426 0329 -061 //// 151050 052 039 002 01
171000 2015N 10914W 4648 06433 0326 -065 //// 150053 056 039 002 01
171030 2014N 10916W 4652 06422 0321 -063 -075 152056 057 039 002 00
171100 2012N 10918W 4655 06418 0320 -065 -069 151058 058 040 001 00
171130 2011N 10920W 4654 06420 0320 -068 //// 149059 059 040 001 01
171200 2009N 10922W 4653 06417 0319 -069 //// 147060 062 044 006 01
171230 2007N 10925W 4657 06411 0316 -066 -071 141055 057 044 007 00
171300 2006N 10927W 4656 06409 0313 -065 -069 139049 052 043 004 00
171330 2004N 10929W 4656 06407 0313 -065 -069 142043 047 042 001 00
171400 2003N 10931W 4657 06405 0313 -065 -066 145039 041 041 001 00
171430 2001N 10934W 4656 06405 0309 -065 -069 143039 039 040 001 00
171500 1959N 10936W 4655 06399 0303 -069 //// 143042 043 038 000 01
171530 1958N 10938W 4656 06404 0313 -070 //// 138042 043 038 000 01
171600 1956N 10940W 4663 06399 0313 -065 //// 142046 047 037 000 01
171630 1955N 10943W 4755 06247 0305 -061 -064 142046 046 038 000 00
171700 1953N 10945W 4843 06101 0293 -053 -055 143047 048 037 000 00
171730 1951N 10947W 4924 05967 0282 -046 -048 142046 047 039 000 00
171800 1950N 10949W 4999 05843 0270 -039 //// 144045 046 039 000 01
171830 1948N 10951W 5107 05677 0260 -032 -032 142050 051 038 000 00
171900 1946N 10954W 5235 05485 0252 -022 -026 143049 051 037 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 181733
AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 30 20230818
171930 1945N 10956W 5360 05304 0248 -012 //// 145049 050 039 000 01
172000 1943N 10958W 5474 05147 0239 -010 //// 145051 054 042 000 01
172030 1942N 11000W 5591 04963 //// -009 //// 147055 055 043 001 01
172100 1940N 11002W 5713 04775 0038 -001 //// 146058 060 045 000 01
172130 1939N 11004W 5847 04588 0031 +014 //// 143061 061 044 000 01
172200 1938N 11006W 5975 04413 0031 +022 //// 141062 063 042 000 01
172230 1936N 11008W 6120 04216 0035 +033 //// 143060 061 044 000 01
172300 1935N 11010W 6251 04042 0035 +045 +032 142058 060 044 000 00
172330 1933N 11011W 6388 03864 0036 +054 +050 138058 059 042 001 00
172400 1932N 11013W 6519 03697 0044 +057 //// 133058 059 044 001 01
172430 1931N 11015W 6685 03486 0041 +070 +068 136060 062 045 000 00
172500 1929N 11017W 6827 03311 0041 +080 +079 137059 062 045 000 00
172530 1928N 11019W 6954 03157 0033 +093 +092 139058 058 043 000 00
172600 1927N 11020W 6978 03126 0033 +092 //// 140058 058 045 000 01
172630 1926N 11022W 6958 03147 0023 +096 +088 139055 057 045 000 00
172700 1925N 11023W 6972 03129 0024 +095 +091 142056 056 044 000 00
172730 1924N 11025W 6960 03142 0023 +091 //// 144061 064 046 000 01
172800 1923N 11026W 6963 03135 0019 +095 //// 144066 068 047 001 01
172830 1922N 11027W 6968 03126 0020 +092 //// 141067 068 047 001 01
172900 1921N 11029W 6967 03127 0024 +089 //// 142065 066 047 001 01

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 181738
AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 31 20230818
172930 1920N 11030W 6970 03124 0019 +091 //// 143065 066 045 000 01
173000 1918N 11032W 6969 03122 0015 +094 //// 143068 069 048 000 01
173030 1917N 11033W 6967 03122 0019 +088 //// 141068 069 048 001 01
173100 1916N 11034W 6967 03121 0017 +089 //// 140066 068 046 003 01
173130 1915N 11035W 6967 03119 0017 +087 //// 140065 066 049 003 01
173200 1914N 11037W 6966 03119 //// +084 //// 142064 065 049 003 01
173230 1913N 11038W 6967 03115 //// +085 //// 143064 064 047 004 01
173300 1912N 11039W 6966 03115 0010 +087 //// 142065 065 045 003 01
173330 1911N 11041W 6967 03113 0003 +092 //// 143066 067 048 001 01
173400 1910N 11042W 6969 03109 9999 +093 //// 143068 068 049 001 01
173430 1908N 11043W 6967 03109 9998 +092 //// 144069 069 049 002 01
173500 1907N 11045W 6967 03105 9992 +095 //// 144070 071 051 000 01
173530 1906N 11046W 6969 03102 9987 +095 //// 143072 073 051 000 01
173600 1905N 11047W 6967 03101 9983 +099 +086 143074 075 050 000 00
173630 1904N 11048W 6967 03098 9984 +095 +089 142074 074 052 000 00
173700 1903N 11050W 6968 03096 9985 +092 //// 141074 075 052 000 01
173730 1902N 11051W 6966 03096 9974 +098 +092 140076 077 052 000 00
173800 1901N 11052W 6970 03087 9972 +094 //// 140077 077 053 002 01
173830 1900N 11054W 6966 03088 9975 +090 //// 142075 077 053 002 01
173900 1858N 11055W 6965 03088 9959 +099 //// 139076 076 053 001 01

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 181748
AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 32 20230818
173930 1857N 11056W 6968 03079 9955 +100 +098 141079 080 052 000 00
174000 1856N 11057W 6969 03075 9955 +098 //// 140079 080 053 001 01
174030 1855N 11059W 6968 03070 //// +089 //// 138078 079 054 002 01
174100 1854N 11100W 6963 03074 9943 +100 //// 136071 078 055 004 01
174130 1853N 11101W 6971 03062 9935 +103 //// 137073 074 055 004 01
174200 1852N 11103W 6967 03064 9935 +096 //// 137076 077 053 008 01
174230 1850N 11104W 6965 03068 9932 +104 //// 140074 075 052 006 01
174300 1849N 11105W 6964 03065 9926 +107 +104 139072 075 057 001 00
174330 1848N 11107W 6971 03051 9923 +102 //// 137075 077 060 002 01
174400 1847N 11108W 6964 03058 //// +085 //// 138077 080 058 002 01
174430 1846N 11109W 6962 03052 //// +080 //// 138080 083 058 010 01
174500 1845N 11110W 6966 03046 9917 +098 //// 137077 078 056 003 01
174530 1844N 11112W 6969 03042 9918 +092 //// 135076 078 057 003 01
174600 1843N 11113W 6968 03040 //// +088 //// 134075 076 060 005 01
174630 1841N 11114W 6967 03037 //// +087 //// 134079 080 056 008 01
174700 1840N 11116W 6965 03035 //// +082 //// 135080 082 060 021 01
174730 1839N 11117W 6974 03018 //// +078 //// 137082 084 064 014 01
174800 1838N 11118W 6962 03029 9907 +085 //// 136081 082 064 008 01
174830 1837N 11120W 6973 03012 9909 +083 +077 134081 083 064 008 00
174900 1836N 11121W 6962 03018 9902 +084 +066 134078 081 063 010 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 181758
AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 33 20230818
174930 1835N 11122W 6967 03007 9893 +088 +058 138081 084 066 006 00
175000 1833N 11124W 6969 02999 9865 +108 +054 138084 084 069 001 00
175030 1832N 11125W 6969 02993 9864 +103 +054 136084 084 069 002 00
175100 1831N 11126W 6968 02986 9865 +093 +054 137086 087 069 004 00
175130 1830N 11127W 6966 02980 9847 +102 +053 140089 090 071 001 00
175200 1829N 11129W 6969 02965 9847 +091 +052 142092 092 072 006 00
175230 1828N 11130W 6966 02956 9846 +081 +050 142093 094 072 012 00
175300 1827N 11131W 6970 02941 9835 +080 +046 141097 098 074 016 00
175330 1826N 11132W 6965 02936 9822 +081 +042 141100 100 075 015 00
175400 1825N 11133W 6967 02922 9806 +084 +040 139102 104 076 012 00
175430 1824N 11135W 6967 02907 9783 +091 +038 140105 105 081 008 00
175500 1823N 11136W 6968 02890 9770 +087 +039 142106 106 083 013 00
175530 1822N 11137W 6971 02873 9764 +076 +039 140108 109 086 017 00
175600 1821N 11138W 6965 02861 9742 +079 +036 142110 111 087 010 00
175630 1820N 11139W 6969 02844 9708 +099 +035 144104 113 091 011 00
175700 1819N 11140W 6971 02827 9673 +112 +037 142091 098 093 008 00
175730 1818N 11142W 6967 02807 9644 +119 +042 144091 092 092 000 00
175800 1817N 11143W 6966 02789 9609 +129 +046 145092 093 093 000 00
175830 1816N 11144W 6963 02770 9591 +121 +052 146085 093 089 004 00
175900 1815N 11145W 6967 02745 9570 +124 +055 146071 078 083 007 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure between 947-948 mbs.

AF300 0109E HILARY HDOB 34 20230818
175930 1813N 11147W 6962 02738 9537 +140 +056 147061 067 077 003 00
180000 1812N 11148W 6964 02721 9523 +141 +059 146045 056 058 000 00
180030 1811N 11150W 6980 02693 9509 +144 +066 150032 039 041 001 00
180100 1810N 11151W 6965 02706 9498 +148 +070 159022 027 032 001 03
180130 1810N 11153W 6968 02700 9484 +162 +075 172011 017 028 000 00
180200 1809N 11155W 6967 02700 9476 +167 +079 197004 009 025 000 00
180230 1809N 11157W 6967 02706 9474 +174 +082 335002 005 023 000 00
180300 1809N 11159W 6967 02710 9478 +174 +085 348010 013 024 000 00
180330 1809N 11201W 6961 02722 9493 +163 +087 358019 024 026 000 00
180400 1808N 11202W 6971 02722 9511 +157 +088 340029 030 /// /// 03
180430 1806N 11201W 6963 02750 9524 +163 +087 316027 030 /// /// 03
180500 1806N 11159W 6970 02760 9538 +165 +086 292018 023 026 000 03
180530 1807N 11157W 6966 02738 9520 +169 +085 269010 014 025 000 00
180600 1808N 11156W 6965 02732 9501 +171 +084 224007 009 022 000 03
180630 1810N 11157W 6967 02712 9486 +169 +083 183009 009 024 000 00
180700 1812N 11157W 6963 02714 9493 +160 +081 101012 016 022 000 00
180730 1812N 11159W 6967 02733 9508 +160 +079 057017 019 /// /// 03
180800 1811N 11200W 6961 02725 9498 +160 +080 013011 018 /// /// 03
180830 1810N 11158W 6976 02697 9481 +168 +080 240006 009 024 000 00
180900 1809N 11156W 6963 02705 9475 +169 +078 213012 013 024 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Mission is over. It was 948 mbs, the lowest pressure.

[cycloneye]

Who is going to post the overnight mission? Plane has departed from Keesler Base.

[cycloneye]

Is in Mexico. Who will volunteer to post the overnight mission?

[Hurricane2022]

what happened to Recon? Since ~0330Z they have not sent any more data.

[Hurricane2022]

what happened to Recon? Since ~0330Z they have not sent any more data.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches).

[cycloneye]

Here are the two passes of the past mission.

[NDG]

I doubt those 128 knot winds found at flight level are mixing down to the surface, especially since SFMR only found 100 knot winds.

100 knots
(~ 115.1 mph)

http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... 3--124-100

[CrazyC83]

296
URPN15 KNHC 200439
AF305 0409E HILARY HDOB 17 20230820
043100 2715N 11344W 6963 03066 9925 +106 +100 135080 081 /// /// 03
043130 2713N 11345W 6963 03064 9925 +107 +100 137078 079 /// /// 03
043200 2713N 11345W 6963 03064 9922 +109 +100 136078 078 /// /// 03
043230 2711N 11348W 6970 03057 9915 +116 +095 135079 079 /// /// 03
043300 2710N 11349W 6963 03062 9907 +119 +091 135077 079 /// /// 03
043330 2709N 11351W 6967 03053 9900 +124 +093 136080 080 /// /// 03
043400 2708N 11352W 6965 03056 9896 +126 +094 136080 080 /// /// 03
043430 2706N 11354W 6973 03043 9896 +121 +095 136080 081 /// /// 03
043500 2705N 11355W 6964 03050 9900 +116 +100 136080 081 /// /// 03
043530 2704N 11356W 6965 03047 9908 +107 //// 133077 080 /// /// 05
043600 2703N 11358W 6969 03041 9902 +110 //// 131077 078 /// /// 05
043630 2702N 11359W 6967 03039 9901 +107 //// 129076 078 /// /// 05
043700 2700N 11400W 6967 03036 //// +096 //// 127077 078 /// /// 05
043730 2659N 11402W 6965 03035 9896 +105 //// 126077 078 066 002 05
043800 2658N 11403W 6967 03032 9887 +110 //// 126076 077 047 001 01
043830 2657N 11405W 6965 03032 9887 +108 //// 126076 077 039 004 01
043900 2655N 11406W 6967 03025 9894 +100 //// 126073 075 039 004 01
043930 2654N 11408W 6962 03029 9884 +104 //// 125072 073 037 003 01
044000 2653N 11409W 6971 03016 9878 +110 //// 125072 072 043 004 01
044030 2652N 11410W 6958 03028 9869 +112 +112 125071 072 046 003 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

510
URPN15 KNHC 200449
AF305 0409E HILARY HDOB 18 20230820
044100 2650N 11412W 6971 03010 9864 +115 +110 124071 072 047 003 00
044130 2649N 11413W 6964 03014 9864 +111 +110 125071 071 044 005 00
044200 2648N 11415W 6966 03011 9855 +119 +108 128069 070 043 003 00
044230 2646N 11416W 6965 03008 9853 +116 +108 126066 067 044 004 00
044300 2645N 11418W 6967 03004 9855 +111 +111 126064 065 044 004 00
044330 2644N 11419W 6966 03000 9850 +113 //// 127064 064 042 004 01
044400 2642N 11420W 6967 02996 9845 +115 +113 127065 065 046 003 00
044430 2641N 11421W 6965 02997 9843 +114 +113 125066 067 045 004 00
044500 2640N 11423W 6966 02993 9839 +114 +113 125068 069 043 005 00
044530 2638N 11424W 6966 02988 9836 +111 //// 124069 069 043 005 01
044600 2637N 11425W 6967 02983 9837 +109 //// 123068 069 043 004 01
044630 2636N 11426W 6967 02979 9833 +108 //// 122066 068 043 005 01
044700 2634N 11427W 6967 02977 9832 +107 //// 123063 065 043 006 01
044730 2633N 11428W 6966 02975 9825 +110 +110 122064 067 043 004 00
044800 2631N 11430W 6966 02973 9821 +110 +110 121065 066 043 003 00
044830 2630N 11431W 6963 02968 9816 +110 //// 119062 064 044 004 01
044900 2628N 11432W 6964 02962 9812 +107 //// 118061 062 043 004 01
044930 2627N 11433W 6967 02954 9804 +109 //// 117058 061 042 005 01
045000 2625N 11434W 6964 02951 9808 +093 //// 111054 056 043 008 01
045030 2624N 11435W 6966 02945 //// +089 //// 111053 054 043 008 01
$$
;

It's a large, broad storm. So far nothing to support higher than about 65 kt, but the pressure is quite low.

[CrazyC83]

295
URPN15 KNHC 200459
AF305 0409E HILARY HDOB 19 20230820
045100 2622N 11436W 6965 02943 9794 +104 //// 112052 055 043 007 01
045130 2621N 11436W 6967 02935 9794 +100 //// 111049 050 042 008 01
045200 2619N 11437W 6966 02932 //// +095 //// 111050 050 042 009 01
045230 2617N 11438W 6966 02926 //// +086 //// 107049 050 040 011 01
045300 2616N 11439W 6965 02922 //// +085 //// 102047 050 041 012 01
045330 2614N 11439W 6967 02918 //// +085 //// 098044 045 037 013 01
045400 2612N 11440W 6965 02913 //// +084 //// 096043 044 037 015 01
045430 2610N 11440W 6967 02906 //// +085 //// 097039 042 036 017 01
045500 2609N 11441W 6968 02898 //// +085 //// 095035 038 038 015 01
045530 2607N 11441W 6966 02896 //// +087 //// 086029 032 035 016 05
045600 2605N 11441W 6967 02891 //// +092 //// 085023 026 035 016 01
045630 2603N 11441W 6966 02890 9723 +111 //// 104014 019 030 009 01
045700 2601N 11441W 6967 02888 9721 +117 //// 107009 011 021 004 05
045730 2600N 11442W 6970 02884 9713 +121 //// 080003 009 011 004 01
045800 2600N 11442W 6970 02884 9710 +127 //// 326009 014 014 004 01
045830 2556N 11443W 6965 02894 9708 +132 +117 320019 023 014 004 00
045900 2555N 11444W 6963 02897 9710 +135 +108 323028 030 014 003 03
045930 2553N 11445W 6967 02897 9712 +136 +105 323031 031 014 002 00
050000 2552N 11447W 6966 02905 9722 +133 +106 322031 031 014 003 00
050030 2551N 11448W 6966 02911 9730 +130 +106 318032 033 010 002 00
$$
;

Pressure 971 mb.

[CrazyC83]

196
URPN15 KNHC 200509
AF305 0409E HILARY HDOB 20 20230820
050100 2550N 11450W 6966 02916 9734 +133 +106 315034 035 012 002 00
050130 2548N 11451W 6958 02928 9741 +128 +103 317037 037 012 002 00
050200 2547N 11453W 6963 02925 9749 +128 +102 319038 038 016 003 00
050230 2546N 11454W 6967 02927 9759 +125 +102 319039 039 020 002 00
050300 2544N 11456W 6963 02935 9756 +131 +099 319041 041 023 002 00
050330 2543N 11458W 6967 02936 9759 +135 +097 319042 043 023 002 00
050400 2541N 11459W 6965 02944 9758 +139 +094 318043 044 025 003 00
050430 2540N 11501W 6966 02947 9763 +140 +096 316044 044 027 002 00
050500 2539N 11502W 6966 02952 9763 +144 +095 316043 044 032 002 00
050530 2537N 11504W 6965 02956 9763 +145 +092 312042 043 033 002 00
050600 2536N 11505W 6963 02959 9769 +143 +093 314042 043 034 002 00
050630 2535N 11507W 6966 02961 9770 +145 +094 316042 043 035 003 00
050700 2533N 11509W 6963 02967 9772 +149 +092 315041 043 036 002 00
050730 2532N 11510W 6965 02968 9781 +141 +093 318040 041 037 002 00
050800 2530N 11512W 6963 02972 9790 +137 +095 319038 040 036 003 00
050830 2529N 11513W 6967 02973 9799 +134 +095 316036 038 038 001 00
050900 2528N 11515W 6961 02981 9799 +135 +095 319035 036 036 002 00
050930 2526N 11516W 6965 02980 9801 +137 +095 317034 034 037 002 00
051000 2525N 11518W 6966 02984 9807 +135 +095 315035 035 038 002 00
051030 2524N 11520W 6964 02987 9811 +134 +094 314034 035 038 002 00
$$
;