ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[abajan]

Already starting to see the first evidence of what looks like banding, with the earlier ASCAT pass, it only needs persistent deep convection and it's pretty much a TC. Will be interesting to see whether models continue to play catchup like with other miniature systems. Very healthy so far
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/888447712624779384/1131887158232367185/goes16_ir_95L_202307210935_lat11.5-lon-38.7.jpg

Yes, banding is very evident in this morning's first visibles.

[tolakram]

AL, 95, 2023071918, , BEST, 0, 94N, 404W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072000, , BEST, 0, 98N, 400W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072006, , BEST, 0, 103N, 394W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072012, , BEST, 0, 107N, 390W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 388W, 25, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 387W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al952023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

For some odd reason, the link you posted in the last reply in the Low Pressure / Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde (is Invest 95L) topic, that points to this topic, logs me out of S2K whenever I click it.

It didn't log me out but took me to a very odd page with a super small font. I replaced the link and it works now.

[MHC Tracking]

It sort of reminds me of Gonzalo 2020 in its early phases, with the lacking model response, small size and (somewhat) unexpected organization

[Blown Away]

Going N of W based on the positions.


Looking fairly good this morning, watching closely if that SW dip happens. IMO doesn't look that way unless the LLC weakens and reforms.

[Ivanhater]

Code Orange

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (95L):
A small area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form in the next several days, as it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Brown

[GCANE]

Water-Vapor satellite imagery shows convection firing along the dryline.
A classic protected pouch.
Let's see how it holds up when it gets to 50W.

[cycloneye]

Looks good and is very small.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's gonna be interesting to see where exactly this ends up once further west. It may not have a good chance if completely within the ECAR, but some models do bring the system toward the northern fringes of the ECAR, and you would think that that could be more favorable than if the system were more south given the graveyard nature of this region of the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023072112, , BEST, 0, 117N, 392W, 25, 1014, LO

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1682372940753428482

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/weatherffolkes/status/1682381125316931585

[tiger_deF]

95L is firing off some -75C degree hot towers in two separate locations now. While the organizational trend could reverse any moment due to the huge mass of dry air right nearby, we might have a tropical depression or storm by this evening.

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear to have much of a future. Wind shear will increase as it nears or enters the Caribbean. Will probably move into Central America in a week as a wave. Might be classified as a depression at some point east of the Caribbean.

[GCANE]

From MIMIC-TPW, it appears to be pulling a lot of moisture out of the ITCZ.
Impressive helicity with the hot towers.
50W is usually when waves / TCs in the MDR start pulling moisture out the Amazon.
Oh, BTW, water temps are at or near record highs.

[LarryWx]

It doesn't appear to have much of a future. Wind shear will increase as it nears or enters the Caribbean. Will probably move into Central America in a week as a wave. Might be classified as a depression at some point east of the Caribbean.

Regardless of your downplaying, the Lesser Antilles are in the path before it gets into the hostile Caribbean and will thus be affected by a tropical entity of unknown strength. Nobody knows how strong or weak it will be then. A TS is a distinct possibility.

[aspen]

There’s a lot of dry air just to the north of 95L. While the hurricane models show it maintaining a nice moisture pocket and being able to develop in a few days, I’m on the fence. It’s a tiny disturbance in a precarious situation with very marginal support from the global models. This could be a system that sneaks up on them, or a disturbance that initially shows promise before fizzling out.

[GCANE]

Looking at GFS, 144 hrs out.
Should be crossing the islands,
Minimal El-Nino effect, seeing nothing at this time in the EPAC to blow upper tropospheric winds in the direction of this system,

[ScottNAtlanta]

That structure doesn't look 20/40 to me

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at GFS, 144 hrs out.
Should be crossing the islands,
Minimal El-Nino effect, seeing nothing at this time in the EPAC to blow upper tropospheric winds in the direction of this system,

Yeah, there seems to be a lull in the westerly upper level winds that have been blowing in the Caribbean most of this season

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Small system, I think it's possible the global models may not be resolving it very well. Think of how badly the models struggled with pre-Dorian.