ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of Bermuda is
producing gale-force winds and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that the
system does not have a well-defined low-level center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for this system to
become a subtropical storm during the next day or so, as it meanders
over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low should turn
northward bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially
limiting additional development. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

[wxman57]

Nope, no advisory from NHC this pm. Doesn't have a well-defined LLC? Scatterometer data indicated a quite well-defined LLC earlier this morning with at least 35 kt winds:

I don't know, but I think I can just BARELY make out a circulation here:

[tiger_deF]

It's interesting that the GFS is predicting a westward motion of 94L in a few days at such a latitude. I'm curious, has a storm ever impacted Atlantic Canada or New England coming in from the *East*?

[wxman57]

It's interesting that the GFS is predicting a westward motion of 94L in a few days at such a latitude. I'm curious, has a storm ever impacted Atlantic Canada or New England coming in from the west?

I assume you meant from the east and not west? That would be unusual, but this one should be a total fish storm.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd say that this is now deserving of an upgrade.

[MGC]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

[Teban54]

I'd say that this is now deserving of an upgrade.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3260/pNAnu6.gif

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

The duality of S2K strikes again

[JetFuel_SE]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

What are you talking about? It's basically already there, just needs to improve its circulation a bit.
Also the chances would only decrease in the short term, as this'll have another shot when it dips back south.

[aspen]

Getting close. We could have STS or TS Don by tomorrow morning. I hope this isn’t another STS-1 situation where it’s clearly a name-worthy system but isn’t upgraded.

[Hammy]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

Both the models and real time satellite show increased organization, and that will likely continue for at least the next 2-3 days. This has been organizing quite rapidly over the last several hours.

[LarryWx]

So, it appears that Don will turn out to be still another named system in the subtropics initially underestimated for potential. It wasn't even mentioned in the 7 day TWO til 4.5 days ago.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1679608121960849410

[johngaltfla]

Another poor excuse of a storm from the NHC to deny me the S2K Hurricane Prediction Title. Bleh.

[wxman57]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

I think it has reorganized near the convection. Appears to qualify for at least a subtropical storm now. Center is where I put the crosshairs.

[Hurricane2022]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of
the Azores has become more organized today, with increased
thunderstorm activity near a better-defined low-level center, along
with gale-force winds. Although the environment is only marginally
conducive, this system will likely become a subtropical storm during
the next day or so as it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the
weekend, the low should turn northward, bringing the system over
cooler waters and potentially limiting further development.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7
days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Blake

[Category5Kaiju]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

Well it’s now red, so…

[cycloneye]

45kt

AL, 94, 2023071400, , BEST, 0, 327N, 465W, 45, 1002, LO,

[Jr0d]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

I think it has reorganized near the convection. Appears to qualify for at least a subtropical storm now. Center is where I put the crosshairs.

http://wxman57.com/images/94La.JPG

I feel like the NHC likes to go in 10% increments on these systems that pose no threat to land..i wouldn't be surprised if the 2am update is at 80%, tomorrows 8am at 90% and we wont have a classified system until 11am tomorrow.

Not sure if this post is appropriate but I feel like one of the early MDR storms this season had a similar pattern before it was (finally) classified.

Just my opinion.

Bases on satellite this certainly seems like it warrants an upgrade in my amateur opinion.

[abajan]

Train wreck....unless it reorganizes closer to the convection to its east. Formation odds should start to decrease soon......MGC

I think it has reorganized near the convection. Appears to qualify for at least a subtropical storm now. Center is where I put the crosshairs.

http://wxman57.com/images/94La.JPG

I feel like the NHC likes to go in 10% increments on these systems that pose no threat to land..i wouldn't be surprised if the 2am update is at 80%, tomorrows 8am at 90% and we wont have a classified system until 11am tomorrow.

Not sure if this post is appropriate but I feel like one of the early MDR storms this season had a similar pattern before it was (finally) classified.

Just my opinion.

Base[d] on satellite this certainly seems like it warrants an upgrade in my amateur opinion.

That and the 45kt quoted in cycloneye's latest post above.
Surely, it'll be Don by dawn, if it isn't already.

[ElectricStorm]

What a difference a few hours can make, looks much better now and looks upgradable to me. Should see Don soon.