ATL: BRET - Models

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:10 am

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#22 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:58 am

06z Euro looks stronger than last run by 90hrs out.

The GFS and Euro both show a similar evolution over the next few days. They both show a broad wave envelope with a SW and NE lobe, with the two merging in the middle and the SW lobe becoming dominant in about 24-30 hours. It then takes between 1-2 additional days for 92L to become a classifiable or named storm. The fact that the two best models agree this well on the short-term evolution of this disturbance is a good sign for its development odds, but we’ll have to see if it actually follows those predictions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:40 am

Is very unclear what outcome will prevail.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1670103563811569664


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:53 am

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1670060165104533504


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:44 pm

12z Euro reach the islands as a moderate TS and after that, it begins to weaken.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#26 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:50 pm

I think it will be somewhere between the Euro and GFS. The GFS recurve depends on it being stronger. I think the Euro is too weak. I do think that it is traveling too fast (15 to 20mph) for the GFS to be right. I also think that the Euro weakens it too much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 2:23 pm

The new experimental model HSFB.

 https://twitter.com/Nrtiwlnvragn1/status/1670131757767708673


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#28 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:13 pm

12z EC Ensemble:
Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#29 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:35 pm

Spacecoast wrote:12z EC Ensemble:
Image
Long runner in June is a bit unusual.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:00 pm

Euro ensembles still have the two camps.

[Tweet]Image[/Tweet]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#31 Postby skillz305 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:43 pm

18z GFS model about to digest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:33 pm

18z Euro a little more stronger.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#33 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:08 pm

:double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:10 pm

Dont like those words strong hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/Nrtiwlnvragn1/status/1670221247454621696


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#35 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:17 pm


Image
Image
Image
Yes, of course. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:46 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1670238062616477696




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1670238909794533377


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#37 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:51 pm


So HAFS-A and HAFS-B are even more aggressive intensity-wise than HWRF? Wow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#38 Postby Ianswfl » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:44 pm

Teban54 wrote:

So HAFS-A and HAFS-B are even more aggressive intensity-wise than HWRF? Wow.


I can't remember, it's such a blur but I recall didn't the hafs model predict the intensity and track of Ian pretty well and no one believed it would get that strong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#39 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:23 am

Ianswfl wrote:
Teban54 wrote:

So HAFS-A and HAFS-B are even more aggressive intensity-wise than HWRF? Wow.


I can't remember, it's such a blur but I recall didn't the hafs model predict the intensity and track of Ian pretty well and no one believed it would get that strong?

It also had recon data to work with then.
I'm guessing it'll be just like the HWRF in that regard. Garbage without recon, godlike with recon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:45 am

00z Euro goes to hurricane and later it weakens after it reach the islands.

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