BoB: MOCHA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1655987973022679062

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1656041924627955714

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

[aspen]

Dang, the 06z HWRF has a peak intensity of 901 mbar. That’s one of the strongest post-update HWRF runs I’ve seen.

[zzzh]

HWRF has no clue what is going on

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3753/aBfgWZ.gif

This is tropical Storm.

[aspen]

12z HWRF is the first sub-900mb run in years, with a peak intensity of 898mb less than 24 hours before landfall. It’s quite sus though because it reaches this peak with a gigantic outer eyewall.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 11.2N

D. 88.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON A 24 HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[Hurricane2022]

JTWC is forecasting a 90 kt peak at Warning I

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351MAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.4N 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6N 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.5N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.7N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.0N 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.7N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.7N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 88.2E.
11MAY23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 101400).//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Nascent eye is starting to appear on visible sat imagery.

[doomhaMwx]

Now named by IMD.

Sub: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic
storm “Mocha” pronounced as “Mokha”

The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northnorthwestwards with a speed of 8 kmph during past 06 hours,
intensified into a cyclonic storm “Mocha” pronounced as “Mokha” and lay centered at 0530 hours IST of 11th May 2023 over
the same region near latitude 11.2°N and longitude 88.1°E, about 510 km west-southwest of Port Blair, 1210 km
south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and 1120 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar).

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

The name Mocha is starting to appear on the models,

Here's Mocha at 0800z