ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

A big piece of the storm went missing overnight. Not looking particularly healthy to my eye this morning.

[CronkPSU]

the core itself looks pretty good for now but eventually what i assume is that moat of dry air that is wrapping around will mix in and really disrupt the storm in a few hours

[dukeblue219]

There was a scheduled USAF recon overnight that seems to have dropped. It's been a while since we had a non-GIV recon flight. Not that there's much of substance we might be missing, I suppose.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

the core itself looks pretty good for now but eventually what i assume is that moat of dry air that is wrapping around will mix in and really disrupt the storm in a few hours

The more Lee weakens before he gets here the better I'll feel.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kazmit]

Probably down to a cat 2 now

[CronkPSU]

Probably down to a cat 2 now

not officially yet at least...

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

but within the next day...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.6N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.8N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 34.6N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 37.9N 67.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.1N 67.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 46.1N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 52.1N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

[wxman57]

Plane found 70 kts SW of the center, though there was a large gap in what looks like a moat. I doubt it'll find more than 80-85 kt wind NE. Definitely not a Cat 3.

[canebeard]

Lees's rain in Maine.
Falls mainly on my Nova Scotia Lox sandwich.

Coming during the peak of salmon season.

[wxman57]

More like 75 kts in NE quadrant. Could make an argument that there may be higher winds not sampled, so maybe 80 kts now. Not even a Cat 2. 100kts was too high, even for last evening. I can't see NHC dropping 2 categories from one advisory to another, so I bet they go 85-90 kts. Surprise me, NHC.

[psyclone]

Lee has long been undergoing an exchange of peak intensity for an increase in size. It's a huge storm and will remain so..

[bob rulz]

The process of going from a small hurricane with an easily-disrupted core at its peak to a massive beast set to be one of the largest TCs on record is fascinating to me.

[wxman57]

The process of going from a small hurricane with an easily-disrupted core at its peak to a massive beast set to be one of the largest TCs on record is fascinating to me.

A TC that is transitioning to an extratropical storm always has a much larger wind field. As a tropical cyclone, it's a little larger than average for the Atlantic Basin, but near average for the NW Pacific.

[bob rulz]

I should have specified one of the largest Atlantic* TCs.

And many of these cyclones transition into extratropical storms, but only a handful become these massive behemoths like Sandy, Teddy, and now Lee.

[wxman57]

I should have specified one of the largest Atlantic* TCs.

And many of these cyclones transition into extratropical storms, but only a handful become these massive behemoths like Sandy, Teddy, and now Lee.

It's really not so uncommon for a hurricane that transitions to ET to have a very large wind field, like Lee will have. When it happens away from land, like east of Newfoundland, no one notices. Looking at Lee's TS wind as a TC, it ranks in the top 10% since 1988.

[Sciencerocks]

[CronkPSU]

it is looking much better on visible and IR than it did 8 hours ago...weird, the moat is almost completely gone

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/JV6dFVV9dAw

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Watch has been issued for Maine.

[HurricaneBelle]

Hurricane Watch has been issued for Maine.

Lee is going to be the Maine event.