WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Foxfires]

https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1683931497131307012

Overridden to 115kt for that time (25/18Z).

[Hayabusa]

09z smap, barely a typhoon 63 kts

WP, 05, 202307260936, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 12060E, , 1, 59, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 117, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 05, 202307260936, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 12060E, , 1, 59, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 15, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 05, 202307260936, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 12060E, , 1, 59, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[Hayabusa]

There has to be some unreal rain over N Luzon right now.

Baguio and Laoag synoptic stations recorded a total rainfall 487 mm and 461 mm respectively, from 25/00z to 26/12z, a total of 36 hours of accumulated rainfall.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 120.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 393 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
EQUATORWARD FLOW HAS REMAINED ROBUST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED 8NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 261302Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK, ERODING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 261130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACKS AND CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PAST SOUTHERN TAIWAN INTO
SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH LANDFALL AT TAU 36. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE GALE
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 35 PLUS KNOTS THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS TY 05W
APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS TY 05W TRACKS AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON, THERE
IS A SHORT PERIOD OF OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN A BRIEF
REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH TAIWAN. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36, TY DOKSURI WILL MAINTAIN A
POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STR DEEP INTO CHINA WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF TRACK, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 20NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY OVERLAND BUT REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THUS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORT
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BUT THIS PEAK IS OBVIOUSLY
TIED TO THE HOW LOW THE DIP GOES; SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
COULD WEAKEN TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE 260600Z COAMPS
ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INDICATES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 30 SUPPORTING JTWC'S MODEST
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1684236367390457857

[cycloneye]

05W DOKSURI 230726 1800 20.0N 120.1E WPAC 90 947

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1684276919997456401

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 120.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 316 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261302Z GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED
EYE DEPICTS IN EIR, ALONG WITH THE TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION
FIXES.THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 261730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
PAST SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DUE TO WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS),
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
THE SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF WINDOW IN WHICH IT WILL EITHER MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO TRACK WITH ONLY A 75NM IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU
36 AT TIME OF LANDFALL. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TRACK GUIDANCE
SPREAD INCREASES SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION
PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LUZON INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 36, ALL MODELS GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LAND DISSIPATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MEAN BEYOND TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

05W DOKSURI 230727 0000 20.6N 119.7E WPAC 75 969

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1684378203870359554

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.7N 119.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A RECENT 262250Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.
ADDITIONALLY, MSI NOW SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME COMPLETELY
CLOUD FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 262250Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE 230000Z ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES RANGING 63 TO 72 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT D-PRINT AND D-MINT ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
SHARPLY WITH THE RECENT ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 68 TO 70 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 262330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TYPHOON 05W CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN DUE TO DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE INFLOW DISRUPTION. 05W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL REMAIN WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 24,
05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRACK WITH ONLY A 90NM IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD
BY TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH GFS AND HWRF
INDICATING A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO 90 KNOTS,
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY AND EVEN WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, ALL MODELS GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1684400844748247041

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 119.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 269 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A RECENT 270530Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT TYPHOON (TY) 05W
(DOKSURI) IS IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC), WITH A SMALL (35NM) INNER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
NASCENT PINHOLE EYE, SURROUNDED BY A MOAT AND AN OUTER EYEWALL OUT
55NM TO 70NM FROM THE CENTER. THE ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION AND VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) ARE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING EYE WHILE THE OUTER EYEWALL REMAINS FAIRLY
ROBUST AS WELL. COMPARISON OF THE AMSR2 IMAGERY WITH AN EARLIER
ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS THE OUTER EYEWALL IS ALREADY STARTING TO
SHRINK DOWN. ANALYSIS OF CWB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
TOOK A SHARP WESTWARD TURN FROM APPROXIMATELY 0000Z-0300Z, BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE IN BOTH THE MSI AND THE AMSR2
IMAGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE BULK OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SMALL NATURE OF THE INNER CORE AND THUS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO LOW. THE DMINT HOWEVER IS 80 KNOTS, AND SATCON IS
AROUND 75 KNOTS, BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT EARLIER 272200Z SENTINEL-1
AND RCM-3 SAR MEASUREMENTS OF 79 KNOTS. THE TURN WAS SHARP ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN INTERMEDIATE 0300Z POSITION. ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND IS
STARTING TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PARKED WEST OF SHANGHAI, IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY STRONG
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS ARE INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA OF UPWELLING NORTH OF LUZON, AND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SHALLOW COAST OF CHINA, COASTAL DOWNWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
INCREASED SSTS AND OHC RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. BOTH THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) AND THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SAR AND ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 75 KTS AT 270129Z
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 270530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF THE ERC AND SOME LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE PROXIMITY
OF TAIWAN, TY 05 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT, THOUGH
TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE GENERAL STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE COAST IN THE VICINITY
OF XIAMEN, CHINA BY AROUND TAU 18. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, SEVERAL
FACTORS ARE AT PLAY THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
FIRST, THE SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF SHANGHAI, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
OUTFLOW TO THE ALREADY EXISTING STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL FILL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE FLOWING NORTHWARD LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM SSTS
ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
THE STORM APPROACHES DUE TO COASTAL DOWNWELLING, PROVIDING A BOOST
IN ENERGY TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. LASTLY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
CLEAR OF TAIWAN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT,
SOME FUNNELING AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL HELP SUPPORT A DECREASE
IN THE OUTER EYEWALL, ALSO SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. THE NET
EFFECT WILL BE A FORECASTED INCREASE TO AT LEAST 90 KNOTS BY TAU
12, WITH A POTENTIAL HIGHER PEAK OCCURRING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 18. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 05W WILL TRAVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING WEST
OF SHANGHAI BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANNOT CAPTURE THE LIKELY NEAR-TERM WOBBLES IN THE TRACK
DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRACK SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW FOR THE FIRST
12 HOURS AS THE WOBBLES SLOW THE EFFECTIVE FORWARD SPEED, BUT TRACK
SPEEDS PICK UP FROM THERE THROUGH LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS
MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, BUT WITH THIS RUN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC
(GFS). THE JTWC FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE GUIDANCE IN INTENSIFYING
THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT THEN REJOINS THE PACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS THUS MEDIUM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hurricane2022]

Looks very similar to Hinnamnor '22

[Hurricane2022]

Incredible!!
 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1684546164031475712

[cycloneye]

Wow.

WP, 05, 2023072712, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1192E, 105, 943, TY

[mrbagyo]

Wow.

WP, 05, 2023072712, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1192E, 105, 943, TY

I think that upgrade is justified since there's a 13z surface obs from a buoy in the Taiwan strait that recorded 34.5 mps (10 minute sustained).

Btw, HKO sent a Bombardier Challenger 605 reconnaissance mission into Doksuri to measure its wind profile.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1684546164031475712

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 119.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS EMBARKED UPON ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS IT PICKS UP SPEED
TOWARDS A RENDEZVOUS WITH THE CHINESE COAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE WHAT IS
FRANKLY AN INCREDIBLE METAMORPHOSIS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THE MSI SHOWS 6NM WIDE PINHOLE EYE, WHILE THE ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE DRASTICALLY COOLED,
NOW APPROACHING -85C WHILE THE EYE TEMPERATURE IS NEAREST POSITIVE
TERRITORY. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 271005Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE PINHOLE EYE WITH AN INNER EYEWALL AT ABOUT
6NM, SURROUNDED BY A MOAT OF CLEAR AIR AND A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT
ABOUT 50NM, WHICH IS STEADILY SHRINKING AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI, MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A BIT MORE TRICKY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES STILL TOO LOW AND PLAYING CATCH-UP, WHILE EVEN SOME OF
THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AS WELL. THUS THE
INTENSITY IS HEDGED UPWARDS TOWARDS THE PGTW T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND
THE RAW ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.6, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLEARLY THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE, WITH LOW SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH ADDING TO THE ALREADY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE LATEST SST ANALYSIS FROM NOAA SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF EXTREMELY WARM WATERS (31C) WITH
EVEN WARMER WATERS UP TO 32C ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA, LIKELY DUE
TO COASTAL DOWNWELLING INDUCED BY THE TYPHOON ITSELF.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 271130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FROM THE LATEST RADAR DATA, IT APPEARS THAT TY
05W HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO GET A MOVE ON, AND ACCELERATED TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. FURTHER ACCELERATION TOWARDS
THE COAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS AND MOVES WEST,
TIGHTENING THE STEERING GRADIENT. LANDFALL IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF XIAMEN, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TO A POINT WEST OF SHANGHAI
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE LATEST
SST ANALYSIS FROM NOAA AND CIMSS SUGGEST EXTREMELY WARM WATERS LIE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA, INDUCED MOST LIKELY BY
THE COASTAL DOWNWELLING PROCESS AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A
TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF TY 05W, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED STRONG OUTFLOW AND SCORCHING SSTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS, BUT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) CAN FULLY COMPLETE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH
MINIMAL CROSS OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH LANDFALL AND ONLY A
MODEST AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
UNSURPRISINGLY IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATING WEAKENING
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. SOMEWHAT SURPRISING IS THE FACT
THAT DECAY-SHIPS (GFS) IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST DEVIATES HIGHER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12, THEN REJOINS THE PACK BY TAU
24, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN