EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[doomhaMwx]

Is there any available radar in the landfall area?

[Hurricane Mike]

Unbelievable nightmare scenario for Acapulco.

Video Update on Otis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYyXSjkkJZ4

[Cyclenall]

Maybe the models missed this feat because they didn't detect an inner-core being established. Models were all on team weak-sauce. Thing is it had a good core even yesterday morning...

[CrazyC83]

Now 165 mph winds.

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Even in the WPAC, very few storms of such extreme intensity have had eyewalls hit major cities of 1 million or more people. It's a very rare circumstance unfolding.

[lilbump3000]

Otis closing in on Acapulco Mexico tonight while still continuing to intensify.

[Astromanía]

It's gonna break the record for strongest landfall in the pacific by a lot

[Yellow Evan]

Eye has shot up about 20C in a half an hour on Goes 18. I doubt this is structurally any different from your classic pinhole WPAC >140 kt TC.

[galaxy401]

In addition to this likely being the strongest EPAC hurricane to make landfall, Otis will be the first ever Cat 5 landfall as well. Right over a city too...

[CrazyC83]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1166591065793495101/IMG_2317.png?ex=654b0b98&is=65389698&hm=2cadcf88b764b21995191b59c51c31e97c2e27a7d4a1b28379d68bf7a416c70e&

Eye has shot up about 20C in a half an hour on Goes 18. I doubt this is structurally any different from your classic pinhole WPAC >140 kt TC.

I'd estimate an intensity of 150-155 kt based on that imagery.

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I think NHC should have hourly position updates until landfall. While radar isn't readily available, the eye is as clear as daylight on satellite.

[zeehag]

In addition to this likely being the strongest EPAC hurricane to make landfall, Otis will be the first ever Cat 5 landfall as well. Right over a city too...

what was patricia if not an intensifying cat 5 on landfall in 2015..... i was immediately under that beast.

this willbe beyond horrible for alcaputo.

[Astromanía]

In addition to this likely being the strongest EPAC hurricane to make landfall, Otis will be the first ever Cat 5 landfall as well. Right over a city too...

what was patricia if not an intensifying cat 5 on landfall in 2015..... i was immediately under that beast.

It made landfall as a category 4

[CrazyC83]

In addition to this likely being the strongest EPAC hurricane to make landfall, Otis will be the first ever Cat 5 landfall as well. Right over a city too...

what was patricia if not an intensifying cat 5 on landfall in 2015..... i was immediately under that beast.

Patricia weakened dramatically in the last few hours and was cat 4 at landfall.

[Astromanía]

Does anyone know which was the strongest hurricane by wind speed to make landfall on Mexico? I know Gilbert had 140 kt at landfall but Idk about Dean

[Ntxw]

In addition to this likely being the strongest EPAC hurricane to make landfall, Otis will be the first ever Cat 5 landfall as well. Right over a city too...

what was patricia if not an intensifying cat 5 on landfall in 2015..... i was immediately under that beast.

Patricia weakened dramatically in the last few hours and was cat 4 at landfall.

Patricia peaked out at Sea and weakened on the recurve to land. Otis is peaking right to landfall. Timing differences, eye is just about clean. Wind is going to the big story given elevation and system's intense small core. Wish we had some recon, if there was a candidate for sub 900mb at landfall here, this is as close as it gets for this basin.

[Teban54]

At this point, I think NHC should have hourly position updates until landfall. While radar isn't readily available, the eye is as clear as daylight on satellite.

From my recent memory, it feels that the only times NHC has done hourly updates were for extremely intense hurricanes nearing landfall in the US (Laura, Ida, Ian and Idalia are the ones I found with a quick search), plus Dorian. Notably, Eta and Iota didn't get hourly fixes, despite being just as catastrophic.

Not sure if there's some US bias here, though it would be understandable as NHC is an American agency after all. I do agree that Otis makes a strong case for hourly updates.

[weeniepatrol]

Horrific, worst case scenario

[KirbyDude25]

At this point, I think NHC should have hourly position updates until landfall. While radar isn't readily available, the eye is as clear as daylight on satellite.

From my recent memory, it feels that the only times NHC has done hourly updates were for extremely intense hurricanes nearing landfall in the US (Laura, Ida, Ian and Idalia are the ones I found with a quick search), plus Dorian. Notably, Eta and Iota didn't get hourly fixes, despite being just as catastrophic.

Not sure if there's some US bias here, though it would be understandable as NHC is an American agency after all. I do agree that Otis makes a strong case for hourly updates.

They already put out an update at 11:00 CDT, so I wouldn't be surprised if there was another at midnight before the intermediate advisory at 1:00

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1717019824990159101