WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

[ElectricStorm]

Probably at least a mid-range Cat 4, hopefully NHC increases the intensity a bit for the upcoming advisory. What an impressive storm

[Kingarabian]

Very impressive system.

[lilbump3000]

[cycloneye]

Very impressive system.

We were expecting this presentation as I said days ago. Not like Marie, but photogenic enough.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Estimate: 120 knots

[Kingarabian]

Losing a lot of banding on IR. Could be going annular soon.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

Satellite data reveal that compact Dora has rapidly strengthened. A
small, symmetric eye has emerged and warmed during the past several
hours, surrounded by a solid ring of very deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -70 to -75 deg C. As a result, the latest satellite
intensity estimates have significantly risen since earlier today.
Based on a blend of the 00 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T6.0/115
kt) and SAB (T5.5/102 kt), the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt
for this advisory, which marks a 45-kt increase in intensity over
the past 24 hours. Dora is now the second major hurricane of the
season in the eastern North Pacific basin.

Dora continues to move westward at 260/14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged, as a well-established ridge to the north of
Dora will keep the hurricane moving quickly on a heading just south
of due west for the next several days. The latest track guidance
remains in very good agreement, and overall confidence is above
average on this component of the forecast. The updated NHC track is
very similar to the previous one, generally falling in between the
HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids.

Given its impressive satellite structure and well-formed inner core,
some additional near-term strengthening seems likely tonight as Dora
moves over SSTs greater than 28C and within a low deep-layer shear
environment. The updated peak intensity of 125 kt lies just above
the consensus aids but below the latest HAFS-A/B runs. The easterly
shear is forecast to increase on Thursday and into Friday while Dora
moves over somewhat cooler SSTs, which is expected to bring an end
to its intensification and induce some weakening of the small
hurricane. However, the deep-layer shear diagnosed in both the GFS
and ECMWF SHIPS guidance diminishes between 60-120 h, and the
forecast track keeps Dora over SSTs of 26.5-27C through the end of
the period. Thus, the official forecast does not show as much
weakening and follows the multi-model consensus during this time.
Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast since the
compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity fluctuations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 15.2N 116.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.3N 125.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.2N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 12.9N 141.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 13.0N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Ntxw]

Dora has held W ring for some time now.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye is now in positives too.

[Yellow Evan]

Stunning.

[Hurricane2022]

Big chance of this becoming a C5, atleast not officially

[Chris90]

Losing a lot of banding on IR. Could be going annular soon.

I noticed this too, microwave imagery shows a small, intense core with a distinct lack of banding. Going annular with a pinhole eye would be quite a feat though since annular canes usually require a larger, more stable eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Annular pinholes exist - they just aren't super common. The 1993 version of Dora is probably the most classic example of such actually. I agree this is another.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO warming on the south while convection takes more of a bursting pattern and the eye cools slightly.

[lilbump3000]

[Chris90]

:uarrow: Annular pinholes exist - they just aren't super common. The 1993 version of Dora is probably the most classic example of such actually. I agree this is another.

Awesome, thank you for providing a reference, I'm going to go dig through some satellite archives and check the 1993 version out. It's interesting that multiple iterations of Dora have reached Cat 4, and now 2 of them have become annular pinholes. I guess there's just something about Dora.

Congrats on earning your degree by the way, that's a lot of hard work. Wishing you all the best in your future professional endeavors.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO looking more ragged and outflow looking poor out of the NE. I think this has probably peaked for now.

Next chance at re-intensification comes in a couple days once shear dies down.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/michaeligbino10/status/1686889705173114880