ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WalterWhite]

There are 30 degree Celsius waters in the path of Tammy, and wind shear is moderate to low (indicated by yellow and green lines on the shear map). This could definitely become a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BarbadosMet/status/1714756695115653416

[Hurricane2022]

Another bust, but I think we can also consider that this was (another) collective delusion of the forecast models, since 94L simply obeyed the climatology and is succumbing in the midst of unfavorable conditions for a TCG in the MDR.

Sorry Tammy!!

[msbee]

https://www.meteosxm.com/tropical-weather-update-3/

[zzzh]

There are 30 degree Celsius waters in the path of Tammy, and wind shear is moderate to low (indicated by yellow and green lines on the shear map). This could definitely become a hurricane.

https://i.postimg.cc/50Y0mv6p/cdas-sflux-sst-atl-1.png

https://i.postimg.cc/VLc6jJ1B/wg8shr.gif

current shear doesn't represent future shear.

[AnnularCane]

Another bust, but I think we can also consider that this was (another) collective delusion of the forecast models, since 94L simply obeyed the climatology and is succumbing in the midst of unfavorable conditions for a TCG in the MDR.

Sorry Tammy!!

Everyone gives up so easily. Give them a chance!

[cycloneye]

TXNT21 KNES 190019
TCSNTL

A. 20L (TAMMY)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 13.0N

D. 52.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN LLCC WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS
1.0 AND THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE PULSING
CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Sciencerocks]

[Fego]

Hi. Do you guys consider Tammy a Cabo Verde Cyclone?

[IsabelaWeather]

Hi. Do you guys consider Tammy a Cabo Verde Cyclone?

Yes, what else would it be?

[abajan]

Hi. Do you guys consider Tammy a Cabo Verde Cyclone?

Yes, what else would it be?

What is the definition of a Cabo Verde (Cape Verde) cyclone?

[WalterWhite]

Hi. Do you guys consider Tammy a Cabo Verde Cyclone?

No, it did not form east of 40 W.

[IsabelaWeather]

Hi. Do you guys consider Tammy a Cabo Verde Cyclone?

No, it did not form east of 40 W.

Yes it is. A CV storm is one that forms from an AEW in the MDR. I don't see why the 40W is relevant, very few storms form east of there, this is the same disturbance that formed over Africa.

[aspen]

The first pass supports 45 kt/1004 mbar.

[TallyTracker]

NHC just issued an update that the Hurricane Hunters found 60 mph winds. They’re doing a special advisory at 8 am to update the intensity forecast.

[MarioProtVI]

Wow Tammy is stronger then I thought this morning. Making up for the train wreck that was Philippe?? (Already kinda has so since it got to 50 kt - something Philippe could never achieve) Also an H is in the cone now in the MDR, so looks like we could get a rare October MDR hurricane after all.

[Nimbus]

NHC just issued an update that the Hurricane Hunters found 60 mph winds. They’re doing a special advisory at 8 am to update the intensity forecast.

And the track according to recon is more w than NW ATM.
I was expecting Tammy to cross 13.5N near -56.5.
Makes a difference for the forecast as Tammy may have hurricane force winds affecting several islands.

[Sciencerocks]

[jconsor]

Given that Tammy has just formed and the 0Z models didn't have recon data, uncertainty on track and intensity is rather high. The ECMWF and EPS have been handling Tammy's intensification and track poorly (GEFS has had better handle). Hopefully with the 12Z run the EPS should be a more useful tool, once recon data is ingested.

I think the risk to the US/British Virgin Islands and PR is higher than the NHC track would suggest, as I explain in this thread.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1714988549710233961




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1714990707994231134




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1714995399608381927




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1714998838740561949




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1715001370103669183

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1715018656478904337