ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Landy]

AL, 04, 2023062418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 541W, 50, 1009, TS,

This is a silly wind/pressure ratio, but valid.

One minute later: may need to be adjusted since a sonde just found support for 1005mb.

[Landy]

Now this is more normal...

AL, 04, 2023062418, , BEST, 0, 172N, 540W, 50, 1005, TS,

[MarioProtVI]

Based on recon this is MUCH weaker than anticipated. Only 1010 mb dropsonde at the center with 11 kt winds.

You were saying?

Based on recon data and how it still is 60 mph with this look, I believe it’s possible that Cindy nearly became a hurricane last night when it was at 65 mph with rotating VHT. TCR will probably bump it to 70 mph in TCR but there is a stronger case for upgrading it (at like 00z or 06z today) to a C1 then Bret.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmI07hQBg

Whoa, that has got to be one of the most violent convective bursts I’ve seen in a weak TS.

[Kingarabian]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmI07hQBg

Whoa, that has got to be one of the most violent convective bursts I’ve seen in a weak TS.

Benefits of very warm water and lower than normal SAL values.

[cycloneye]

And is still at 50kt.

AL, 04, 2023062500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 551W, 50, 1005, TS

[cycloneye]

NHC may do it after all.

A possible regeneration will not be included in the
official forecast at this time, but could be added in later
advisories.

[Teban54]

The GFS is the most aggressive with this development, but all of the models except the ECMWF show it to some degree.

Sounds familiar...

[MarioProtVI]

The GFS is the most aggressive with this development, but all of the models except the ECMWF show it to some degree.

Sounds familiar...

Fiona 2016 had this exact same predicament, almost down to the track and everything, but it ended up not regenerating. Cindy may very well be following in her footsteps.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

[Nimbus]

Center is still partially exposed on the west side of the convection.
The models are tracking east of Bermuda and the NHC still suggesting probable dissipation in 48 hours.
Doesn't look like a dangerous storm except to marine traffic.

[cycloneye]

Down to 40kt.

AL, 04, 2023062512, , BEST, 0, 204N, 575W, 40, 1009, TS

Center well exposed.

[wxman57]

We now have 100% model agreement on at least some redevelopment north of Bermda, with a Nova Scotia landfalling TS next Friday. NHC will likely stop advisories tomorrow, but they'll probably have to resume on Wednesday due to TS watch needed for NS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like the burst is destroying whatever’s left of Cindy’s very weak and fragile circulation, similar to what happened with Rene in 2020 (also by a convective burst destroying the very weak center) Recon supports this as well with an elongated center. Probably will be declared dead at 5, if not then certainly at 11.

[Sciencerocks]