ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

First ssd dvorak classification is 1.5:

TXNT28 KNES 190006
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 10.7N

D. 35.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE ARE NOT CONSISTENT AND
CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Kingarabian]

Easily a TD already.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good right now, I think if it can take advantage of DMAX tonight, we should see TD 3 maybe as early as tomorrow morning.

[chaser1]

On IR it has that look like it's starting to wrap a bit. Certainly looks like its on its way to being a tc. Outflow also looks improved.

I think you're right. IR can trick you from time to time but it does appear to me that the low to mid circulation has tightened up and for the first time, may finally have a COC that is consolidating just north of 10N and co-located within a region of bursting convection. Barring any DMIN crash, we may finally have a TD between first visible satellite and noon, and potentially a further upgrade to named storm later in the day. This should go a long way toward better initialization for upcoming model runs.

[Sciencerocks]

[ouragans]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight. This system is forecast to move
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic through the middle part of this week. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[CrazyC83]

There's no need to rush since land is not immediately threatened, although a solid case could be made that it is a TD or TS.

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 190539
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 19/0530Z

C. 10.8N

D. 36.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.0 AND PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023061906, , BEST, 0, 105N, 371W, 30, 1009, LO

[abajan]

There's no need to rush since land is not immediately threatened, although a solid case could be made that it is a TD or TS.

This should not be one of the criteria for upgrading a system to a TD or TS. We want accurate records of the histories of systems. If it's a TD or TS, then that's what it is, regardless of it's proximity to populated lands.

[JetFuel_SE]

There's no need to rush since land is not immediately threatened, although a solid case could be made that it is a TD or TS.

This should not be one of the criteria for upgrading a system to a TD or TS. We want accurate records of the histories of systems. If it's a TD or TS, then that's what it is, regardless of it's proximity to populated lands.

And time of year.

[GCANE]

Fast moving, high helicity hot tower fired off.
Looks like it imparted some spin into 92L

[aspen]

ASCAT would be super helpful right now. I wonder why we haven’t gotten a single pass throughout the duration of 92L’s life so far. I’m still not totally positive that it has a closed circulation, but if it doesn’t, it’s very close.

[LemieT]

There's no need to rush since land is not immediately threatened, although a solid case could be made that it is a TD or TS.

This should not be one of the criteria for upgrading a system to a TD or TS. We want accurate records of the histories of systems. If it's a TD or TS, then that's what it is, regardless of it's proximity to populated lands.

This is how it should be.

[Beef Stew]

92L is close to, if not already at, TD/TS status. The only thing that may be holding it back is its elongation, but I’d expect an upgrade within the next two advisories.

[cycloneye]

100%

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has become
better organized overnight and is close to becoming a tropical
cyclone. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated
on a tropical depression later today. This system is forecast to
move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph with further development
across the central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this
week. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[BobHarlem]

I don't recall the NHC putting up 100% numbers before just putting up advisories. (Even if it's technically "near 100%")

[KirbyDude25]

I don't recall the NHC putting up 100% numbers before just putting up advisories. (Even if it's technically "near 100%")

They sometimes do this when they plan to start issuing advisories with the next cycle 3 hours later. I remember Paulette was 100/100 right before its first advisory, plus a few other storms I can't remember right now.

[Beef Stew]

I don't recall the NHC putting up 100% numbers before just putting up advisories. (Even if it's technically "near 100%")

It has happened before, although it’s not very common and I can’t remember the specific storms off the top of my head. Usually it’s an indication that advisories will be initiated during the next cycle. In this case, they may just be waiting to confirm given the lack of an ASCAT pass.

[cycloneye]

2.0.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 19/1130Z

C. 11.8N

D. 39.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5
AND THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN