EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Since 1951, that area has not had a landfall.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1716994016678392164

[Yellow Evan]

Only SAB uses CDG embedded anyway. It’s not an original part of Dvorak (1984).

[Teban54]

Eye is quickly clearing out even on 1-min imagery. So much for the hopes of shear - this is not like Eta which never really managed to clear out its eye as much as Raw #.

[CrazyC83]

As for the advisory, the question is how high to place the intensity.

Based on the recent trends and analysis, I'd trust the Raw T# and go with 140 kt at the 10 pm advisory (pressure 927 mb). With landfall right around 12Z, I'd put a forecast intensity of 155 kt there, saying "On Coast", with a track shifted east to almost directly over Acapulco.

[msbee]

Scary. Wishing the best for everyone.

[Hurricane2022]

I think that NHC will go with 135 kt for the 03z advisory, and 140 - 145 kt at 06z intermediate advisory, if Otis continues his ERI.

[Hurricane2022]

Ok folks...many of us know that hope is just a water gun in a situation like this...Unless the people of Acapulco get informed and try to organize themselves quickly...I think that only a miracle from divine forces can prevent a major disaster here, unfortunately...

[CrazyC83]

:lol:
https://imageshack.com/i/poqEJovkj

That's definitely getting changed in the TCR post-season, but for now, it definitely shows just how rapid Otis's intensification has been. Even after it's smoothed out to account for inaccuracies in pre-recon estimates, it still likely strengthened about 65 knots in 24 hours.

My guess for the BT intensities for the last 24 hours:

24/0000 - 45 kt, 1005 mb
24/0600 - 55 kt, 1000 mb
24/1200 - 70 kt, 991 mb
24/1800 - 100 kt, 971 mb
25/0000 - 130 kt, 940 mb

That's still an 85 kt increase in 24 hours if that is how it is set, even though hurricane status is a little earlier.

[Astromanía]

He is getting closer and closer to Acapulco, pray for my fellows there please

[KirbyDude25]

:lol:
https://imageshack.com/i/poqEJovkj

That's definitely getting changed in the TCR post-season, but for now, it definitely shows just how rapid Otis's intensification has been. Even after it's smoothed out to account for inaccuracies in pre-recon estimates, it still likely strengthened about 65 knots in 24 hours.

My guess for the BT intensities for the last 24 hours:

24/0000 - 45 kt, 1005 mb
24/0600 - 55 kt, 1000 mb
24/1200 - 70 kt, 991 mb
24/1800 - 100 kt, 971 mb
25/0000 - 130 kt, 940 mb

That's still an 85 kt increase in 24 hours if that is how it is set, even though hurricane status is a little earlier.

Considering that it's been 5 hours since I posted that when the 5 PM EDT advisory pegged this at 110 knots, your estimate is likely accurate given Otis's continued RI

[zzzh]

Cat 5.

WTPZ23 KNHC 250247
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[Iceresistance]

They actually did it! Otis is a Category 5!

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES ONSHORE...
10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 24
Location: 16.1°N 99.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 927 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES




Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite
images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak
Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The
initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values,
making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively
intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in
modern times by Patricia in 2015.

Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes
landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday.
The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is
that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the
east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest
motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid
weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate
tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco
metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely
to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early
Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in
portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage
expected.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

, hope all the possible people stay safe

[Iceresistance]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES




Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite
images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak
Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The
initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values,
making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively
intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in
modern times by Patricia in 2015.

Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes
landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday.
The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is
that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the
east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest
motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid
weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate
tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco
metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely
to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early
Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in
portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage
expected.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

That discussion scared me...

[Teban54]

24 hours ago:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Now:

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH

Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015.

[Hurricane2022]

Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.

[KirbyDude25]

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline.

That's an absolutely horrifying statement to read in an NHC discussion. I hope everyone in the affected areas can at least get out before Otis hits, though it may be too late at this point. They're right, it truly is a nightmare scenario.

[CrazyC83]

Dear God, please protect the people of Acapulco and area.

This is truly a nightmare scenario of epic proportions. All I can say is - they need to find the strongest buildings, get helmets on like a tornado, and stay at least 12 to 15 feet above sea level to stay out of the surge.

[CrazyC83]

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline.

That's an absolutely horrifying statement to read in an NHC discussion. I hope everyone in the affected areas can at least get out before Otis hits, though it may be too late at this point. They're right, it truly is a nightmare scenario.

With the road network there, it would take at least 48 hours to evacuate Acapulco.