ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Rotation looking pretty good on radar.

https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html

Indeed!

[GCANE]

The anticyclone has stretched out to be a large UL High.
A lot of MCS's firing in it and competing for dominance which creates short term LL Vorts.
Radar has one off Cancun.
One satellite has one in the middle of the Yucatan.
ASCAT SE of Cozumel.

Basically, this is what the models are showing.
Surface lows jumping all over the place for the next couple days.

One idea maybe a low created over the Yucatan by strong afternoon pop ups.
Max TPW is approaching the tip of the Yucatan.
A lot of variables to take into account.
Need to see clear skies in the morning.
Then if the popups happen, how long they can persist into the night.

[GCANE]

Interesting setup once this gets in the GoM.
An UL trof will be anchored in the W GOM.
If this develops further west, it will be shredded by the trof.
If more east, the trof enhances outflow and it'll be over the Loop Current.
Even more east and in a moderate anti-cyclonic wave break from the trof but less over the Loop Current.
Looks like one sweet spot for max intensification.
A lot of dice rolling.

[ChrisH-UK]

Cuban radar at La Bajada 1 hour loop.

Source - http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[eastcoastFL]

Convection continues to increase on IR. I do wonder where this COC will eventually form and if it will actually end up over the Yucatán for a short period. It seems most persistent convection is further to the east near the western tip of Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting setup once this gets in the GoM.
An UL trof will be anchored in the W GOM.
If this develops further west, it will be shredded by the trof.
If more east, the trof enhances outflow and it'll be over the Loop Current.
Even more east and in a moderate anti-cyclonic wave break from the trof but less over the Loop Current.
Looks like one sweet spot for max intensification.
A lot of dice rolling.

I guess some upside to a further east development would be less time over water before it reaches Florida. That’s if it ends up heading more NE rather than a NNE heading towards the panhandle / central gulf coast.

[GCANE]

Pressure is dropping at the Yucatan Buoy

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[REDHurricane]

Interesting setup once this gets in the GoM.
An UL trof will be anchored in the W GOM.
If this develops further west, it will be shredded by the trof.
If more east, the trof enhances outflow and it'll be over the Loop Current.
Even more east and in a moderate anti-cyclonic wave break from the trof but less over the Loop Current.
Looks like one sweet spot for max intensification.
A lot of dice rolling.

It looks like the fate of Idalia* will be closely tied to whatever Franklin ends up doing. I'm not going to pretend that I understand how exactly Franklin's strength and location will affect the UL environment for Idalia* in the next several days, but I'm guessing that a stronger/more west Franklin could favor the more east track for Idalia* and a weaker/more east Franklin could favor the more west track?

The fact that this system is going to hit Florida in like 4 days and no one has any idea what it's going to do could be very dangerous if the ingredients line up perfectly... let's hope the models actually have a good grasp on this one like they did with Ian (despite the landfall location flip flopping, the models were calling for at least a decent hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida around 5-7 days before Ian made landfall iirc, so people were aware of the possibility of severe impacts that far in advance) — 2-3 days warning is a whole different ballgame with regards to hurricane preparation/evacuation/etc. and people could get caught way off guard if this is really going to be the next big bad "I" storm. NHC should give it a PTC soon since Yucatán/western Cuba could realistically experience tropical storm conditions within 48 hours or less, not to mention getting people's attention in Florida and surrounding states as quickly as possible just in case.

[Landy]

[tropicwatch]

Convection looking good this morning. We might see a PTC some time today. Buoy 42056 in the area, has reported about a 2mb drop in pressure the past 3 hours and the wind is out of the south.

[caneman]

Convection looking good this morning. We might see a PTC some time today. Buoy 42056 in the area, has reported about a 2mb drop in pressure the past 3 hours and the wind is out of the south.

I have been watching the same buoy and the last reading the wind is now coming from the SSW. I believe this is now close to a tropical depression. Very impressive satellite and radar presentations as well. With it now about 4 days out from Florida, I'd be surprised if it isnt classified by tonight.

[Michele B]

Interesting setup once this gets in the GoM.
An UL trof will be anchored in the W GOM.
If this develops further west, it will be shredded by the trof.
If more east, the trof enhances outflow and it'll be over the Loop Current.
Even more east and in a moderate anti-cyclonic wave break from the trof but less over the Loop Current.
Looks like one sweet spot for max intensification.
A lot of dice rolling.

It looks like the fate of Idalia* will be closely tied to whatever Franklin ends up doing. I'm not going to pretend that I understand how exactly Franklin's strength and location will affect the UL environment for Idalia* in the next several days, but I'm guessing that a stronger/more west Franklin could favor the more east track for Idalia* and a weaker/more east Franklin could favor the more west track?

The fact that this system is going to hit Florida in like 4 days and no one has any idea what it's going to do could be very dangerous if the ingredients line up perfectly... let's hope the models actually have a good grasp on this one like they did with Ian (despite the landfall location flip flopping, the models were calling for at least a decent hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida around 5-7 days before Ian made landfall iirc, so people were aware of the possibility of severe impacts that far in advance) — 2-3 days warning is a whole different ballgame with regards to hurricane preparation/evacuation/etc. and people could get caught way off guard if this is really going to be the next big bad "I" storm. NHC should give it a PTC soon since Yucatán/western Cuba could realistically experience tropical storm conditions within 48 hours or less, not to mention getting people's attention in Florida and surrounding states as quickly as possible just in case.

Believe me, people in SW FL are aware of Idalaia’s existence! We were shopping for window coverings yesterday and we weren’t the only ones. Saw a guy in line as the gas station filling up multiple gas cans.

I don’t anticipate this being Ian, but we finally figured out the easiest solution for window cover (old and unable to handle difficult preparations), so we were just planning this out and up popped this Invest. So we stepped it up and went to get the stuff.

[jlauderdal]

Interesting setup once this gets in the GoM.
An UL trof will be anchored in the W GOM.
If this develops further west, it will be shredded by the trof.
If more east, the trof enhances outflow and it'll be over the Loop Current.
Even more east and in a moderate anti-cyclonic wave break from the trof but less over the Loop Current.
Looks like one sweet spot for max intensification.
A lot of dice rolling.

It looks like the fate of Idalia* will be closely tied to whatever Franklin ends up doing. I'm not going to pretend that I understand how exactly Franklin's strength and location will affect the UL environment for Idalia* in the next several days, but I'm guessing that a stronger/more west Franklin could favor the more east track for Idalia* and a weaker/more east Franklin could favor the more west track?

The fact that this system is going to hit Florida in like 4 days and no one has any idea what it's going to do could be very dangerous if the ingredients line up perfectly... let's hope the models actually have a good grasp on this one like they did with Ian (despite the landfall location flip flopping, the models were calling for at least a decent hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida around 5-7 days before Ian made landfall iirc, so people were aware of the possibility of severe impacts that far in advance) — 2-3 days warning is a whole different ballgame with regards to hurricane preparation/evacuation/etc. and people could get caught way off guard if this is really going to be the next big bad "I" storm. NHC should give it a PTC soon since Yucatán/western Cuba could realistically experience tropical storm conditions within 48 hours or less, not to mention getting people's attention in Florida and surrounding states as quickly as possible just in case.

Believe me, people in SW FL are aware of Idalaia’s existence! We were shopping for window coverings yesterday and we weren’t the only ones. Saw a guy in line as the gas station filling up multiple gas cans.

I don’t anticipate this being Ian, but we finally figured out the easiest solution for window cover (old and unable to handle difficult preparations), so we were just planning this out and up popped this Invest. So we stepped it up and went to get the stuff.

Tropical storm-force winds cause power outages. fill up now and use it later in the season or your car. Too bad so sad for anyone not taking a TS for what it is. I had a power outage 2 weeks in a sofla, peak wind at my place-43mph.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[NDG]

It seems from the Cancun radar loop that the surface vorticity is much closer to the Yucatan Coast while the ML vorticity is where the convection is. But what contradicts this is the lower pressures reported by the buoy than in Cancun.

[jlauderdal]

It seems from the Cancun radar loop that the surface vorticity is much closer to the Yucatan Coast while the ML vorticity is where the convection is. But what contradicts this is the lower pressures reported by the buoy than in Cancun.

https://i.imgur.com/ujtOOm4.gif

I will take pressure readings over radar and sat all the time

[Weatherboy1]

Seems to me that 93 might be organizing further to the East than some models were forecasting. If so, I’d think it increases the chance of a landfall (and more storm impacts) on the FL peninsula Vs. Panhandle. Time to watch still but would’ve surprised at all if we have a TD by 5 pm at this rate

[NDG]

Current satellite presentation is better than what both GFS & Euro forecasted to look like right now, according to both northerly shear will start pinching the convection to the south of the vorticity starting later today through tomorrow. We shall see if they verify.

[cycloneye]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories? I say 5 PM.

[caneman]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories?

Later this afternoon. Will be about 96 hours out so they'll need to get to it.