EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Good morning hurricane Hilary

[Kingarabian]

Looking solid this morning.

[cycloneye]

The recon mission of Friday will be followed bigtime and it may rival the famous Patricia one.

NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA HDOB 35 20151023
203030 1836N 10502W 6964 02794 9531 +208 +065 217112 116 103 006 00
203100 1838N 10504W 6951 02736 9445 +220 +060 215130 133 109 013 00
203130 1839N 10505W 6972 02605 9279 +284 +026 210142 144 116 028 00
203200 1840N 10507W 7003 02434 9223 +198 +097 220117 133 117 031 00
203230 1841N 10509W 6945 02405 9101 +206 +185 235074 090 101 013 03
203300 1842N 10510W 6897 02435 9026 +262 +118 263031 043 083 006 03
203330 1844N 10510W 6969 02328 9029 +241 +125 046015 029 080 000 03
203400 1846N 10509W 6935 02408 9095 +200 +148 110053 071 094 004 00
203430 1848N 10508W 6944 02514 9213 +195 +145 123097 105 131 002 00
203500 1849N 10507W 6793 02824 9366 +153 //// 121108 114 127 004 01
203530 1851N 10506W 6693 03049 9446 +177 +073 114123 127 114 001 00
203600 1853N 10505W 6743 03068 9563 +146 +095 113110 112 098 000 00
203630 1855N 10504W 6789 03071 9636 +146 +085 114101 104 094 000 03
203700 1857N 10505W 6902 02966 9683 +146 +093 107091 095 086 001 03
203730 1859N 10507W 6922 02961 9712 +141 +103 100084 086 071 001 00
203800 1901N 10509W 6938 02963 9737 +136 +114 095081 084 067 001 00
203830 1903N 10511W 6937 02981 9761 +132 +116 091075 076 067 001 00
203900 1905N 10513W 6934 03004 9786 +126 +119 085071 073 069 004 00
203930 1906N 10515W 6934 03011 9803 +119 //// 082079 083 070 000 05
204000 1908N 10517W 6923 03020 9804 +117 //// 085090 096 066 021 01

Just curious, why did you pick HDOB 35 for Patty? Not peak

Here is that historic pass.

URPN15 KWBC 231740
NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA HDOB 17 20151023
173030 1817N 10522W 6958 02856 9615 +173 +110 064095 098 094 014 00
173100 1816N 10521W 6954 02792 9542 +169 +143 062112 118 112 026 00
173130 1814N 10520W 6985 02664 9477 +142 +134 057136 145 130 039 00
173200 1813N 10519W 6889 02580 9275 +129 //// 056155 160 145 037 01
173230 1811N 10518W 6663 02584 8957 +160 //// 051106 143 100 011 05
173300 1810N 10516W 7100 01924 8795 +274 +110 032022 044 061 000 03
173330 1809N 10514W 7085 01937 8784 +279 +069 213041 064 077 001 03
173400 1808N 10513W 7029 02129 8934 +206 +167 211129 164 166 000 00
173430 1807N 10511W 7018 02441 9214 +203 +155 206181 191 161 005 00
173500 1806N 10510W 7036 02576 9413 +175 +107 201155 160 149 004 03
173530 1805N 10509W 7021 02681 9522 +160 +111 201137 141 126 000 00
173600 1804N 10507W 6991 02785 9612 +138 +131 199121 127 105 000 00
173630 1803N 10506W 6954 02878 9671 +132 +132 199109 113 095 000 00
173700 1802N 10504W 6961 02908 9716 +131 +121 204103 104 087 002 00
173730 1801N 10503W 6963 02937 9753 +128 +111 203096 099 079 001 00
173800 1800N 10501W 6970 02948 9774 +131 +114 199089 091 073 001 00
173830 1759N 10500W 6950 02992 9798 +126 +115 198085 086 071 002 00
173900 1758N 10458W 6947 03007 9812 +127 +109 200082 083 072 002 00
173930 1757N 10457W 6940 03025 9824 +122 //// 203077 078 076 007 01
174000 1756N 10455W 6948 03014 9832 +114 //// 209075 081 070 022 01

[kevin]

Raw T# to 6.3 (940 mb, 122 kt) . Final T# are also almost at MH status.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2023 Time : 154020 UTC
Lat : 15:34:04 N Lon : 107:55:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.2mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

[Cyclenall]

Death Valley Forecast:



Broiling in unimaginable heat all summer then 23C for a high with heavy rains in mid-Aug! That much rain down there would be crazy and devastating. This is pmx output from TWN so its not verifying but still worth a look. 5-6 inches rain in that grid.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1692194734125555922

[mempho]

I know everyone here likes tracking these storms (myself included) but I do want you to understand the worst-case scenarios (which I'll define as remote yet something that emergency managers should be considering (90th or 95th percentile). I don't want to imply that I'm a catastrophist or that this is all that likely but I believe that we should look at the impacts of potential low probability/high impact events when a reasonable possibility of such an event comes up. The probability of this is still relatively low but I would not call it near zero either based on the guidance we have at this time. It's more like 90th to 95th percentile in terms of relevance. If this thing does ramp and the track goes just a bit to the west, then the hype machine will start and I doubt a post like this will be heard thru the noise. Therefore, I'm offering it up now as a "just in case" this happens type of reference point. For my attempt to inform here, I want to request that none of you go Chicken Little on me on social media (because it's still a very unlikely occurrence even at this time). However, I do believe that emergency managers in San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties should be preparing today for this type of scenario (I'm assuming that this was never on anyone's bingo cards but I could be pleasantly surprised). I want to stress something important, however, which is that if this scenario were to occur, then it would deeply effect every single person living in the United States. I'm going to go to some significant depths to explain why because understanding this has the potential to be important to every person reading this thread.

I'm looking at this situation and there are a few "ifs" that must pan out for this to happen (making it a low probability right now), however, it's not nearly low enough at this point that it should not be considered (i.e., it's not zero or near zero). If the maximum intensity, "perfect" track and the forward motion of the storm all converge correctly, we could see a Cat 1 landfall in the United States. There are a couple of other factors that must be presence (dry air and shear to name just a couple) but the track, forward motion and maximum intensity are the main three. Due to the angle of the coastline, the most likely spot for that to occur is on the south-facing shores in the Los Angeles area. Since a direct impact in this area would have many impacts, I'd like to focus on entirely on the surge & wind threats that could potentially be posed since there are many others who are better than I to highlight the potential impacts of excessive rainfall. With regard to wind and surge threats, the south-facing shores that would be most problematic (but also most likely if there was a US landfall) would include Hutingdon Beach, Long Beach and the Venice & Playa Vista areas. The problem with a significant hit in these areas is two-fold: a commercial/economic threat and a residential/humanitarian threat. First, the commercial/economic threat stems from the San Pedro Bay Port Complex and its importance in the USA and globally. Second, the residential/humanitarian threat stems from the residential areas that would be most severely impacted- areas which are densely populated with near-zero preparation for a hurricane. I'll break the details down on these two threats below to attempt to convey how significant each of them are.


COMMERCIAL/ECONOMIC THREAT
The San Pedro Bay Port Complex (which comprises twin ports- the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach) is immensely important. No other complex even compares to this complex on the East or Gulf coasts. Here are some facts regarding the San Pedro Bay Complex (source: portoflosangeles.org):

1. #9 in the World (#1 container port in Western Hemisphere for 23 consecutive years)
2. Provides 883,000 jobs or 1 in every 9 jobs in LA metro
3. 2,534,000 jobs are dependent upon this port complex nationwide (1 in every 62 jobs nationwide)
4. Holds a mind-boggling 75% market share for the West Coast of the USA
5. Holds 29% market share for the entire USA

RESIDENTIAL/HUMANITARIAN THREAT

The threat here is probably best conveyed by understanding the density and topography of the areas that would be at risk for the most severe impacts. These include chiefly the cities of Huntington Beach and Venice as well as various others to lesser degrees. This is best by reviewing the storm surge inudation maps that have been developed by the NHC. They are available at https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c and they do include Category 1 inudation maps for the southern California area. If you don't want to go there are review the maps in detail, I've included a couple of still image captures that I obtained from the site this morning that do a decent job of illustrating the risks in each of the three areas that I've highlighted above and in the following order (1- Huntingdon Beach; 2- Long Beach; 3- Venice & Playa Vista).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[aspen]

Up to a 90 kt Cat 2 for the 2pm intermediate advisory.

[Ntxw]

Big, beautiful eye coming.

[cycloneye]

I would have recon starting today but that is their desicion to begin missions on Friday morning.

[cycloneye]

Cat 2.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 108.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.4 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[wxman57]

Note that Hilary will move out of 27C (80F) water as it tracks even with the southern tip of Baja. From there it's a very sharp drop-off to low 70s and even upper 60s as it nears northern Baja. That, combined with increasing SW wind shear from the upper trof offshore CA will lead to rapid weakening before it reaches northern Baja and southern CA. As it decouples and loses tropical characteristics over southern CA on Monday, sustained 1-min winds may be below 39 mph but it will still be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-60 mph in the mountains and passes east of San Diego and Los Angeles. San Diego to Los Angeles can expect 2-3 inches of rain, with 4-6 inches farther inland. Las Vegas may even see 2-3 inches of rain Mon/Tue, which would be quite heavy for any time of year there.

[Ntxw]

I would have recon starting today but that is their desicion to begin missions on Friday morning.

It would be nice for today. But at least she will peak sometime tomorrow through early Saturday with the best presentation at that time frame.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1692235058768228453

[cycloneye]

EP, 09, 2023081718, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1084W, 90, 965, HU

[Jr0d]

With a 'perfect' track this could make landfall as a rapidly weakening tropical storm in Southern California. Regardless if this happens or it makes landfall further south in Baja, flash flooding is the primary concern in my unprofessional opinion.The wind will most likely not be strong enough to cause significant damage, but I suppose isolated tornadoes will be a possibility.

Going to be interesting to see what the emergency managers in South California and we may see tropical storm watches, maybe even a hurricane watch for the southern Coast of California.

Ive been loosely following Hilary but todays model runs into California really got my attention.

[galaxy401]

Any chance of good rain for Arizona? Looks like the Phoenix area will be just east of most of Hilary's rainfall. That's why I'm hoping she nudges more eastward.

[Ntxw]

Still working on the core which is relatively small, but sizable eye compared to the overall moisture envelope. Storms that look like this have yielded low pressures and tight gradiences. Super typhoon-esque.

[Gatos del Sol]

I want to stress something important, however, which is that if this scenario were to occur, then it would deeply effect every single person living in the United States. I'm going to go to some significant depths to explain why because understanding this has the potential to be important to every person reading this thread.

Another concern with a middle California track is flooding in the Central Valley. A pretty huge amount of America’s food is grown in the Central and Imperial Valleys, particularly winter produce.