WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Hayabusa]

93W.INVEST

93W INVEST 230911 0000 21.0N 149.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120200Z-120600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.0N 130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C)
SST. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THAT 92W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.5N
159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 112325Z ASCAT
METOP-B DEPLICTS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS (25-30KTS) TO
THE SOUTHEAST THAT ARE NOT YET ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93W BUT ARE
HELPING IT MAINTAIN ITS CYCLONIC MOTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C)
SST BUT IS OFFSET BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA THAT IS
SUPPRESSING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE CIRCULATION
DRIFTING POLEWARD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 14 TO 19 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 121200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 57N 142E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NNE 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 142E TO 55N 146E 52N 148E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 142E TO 55N 142E 50N 141E 46N 139E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 47N 152E
55N 162E 55N 172E 48N 180E 38N 180E 35N 170E 40N 150E 42N 141E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 129E WSW SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 23N 151E NORTH 10 KT.