ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1590324765289742336

[eastcoastFL]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7373/XNRPPw.gif

Starting to look like it did yesterday before convection died down.

[NDG]

For our storm experts can you explain this expanse of winds way out from the center of the storm. Personally I cannot recall winds this far out from the center and nothing at all on the south side. I think they go over 350 miles out ?

That's due to the pressure gradient between strong surface high over the NE US, 1037mb, and Nicole's ~985mb pressure, something you don't see in the summer time why TS force winds don't cover such a large area when surrounding pressure is not so high.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like she's parallel to WPB now and heading just south of due west. That turn to the WNW will be critical to whether it ends up in jupiter or vero.

[cane5]

For our storm experts can you explain this expanse of winds way out from the center of the storm. Personally I cannot recall winds this far out from the center and nothing at all on the south side. I think they go over 350 miles out ?

That's due to the pressure gradient between strong surface high over the NE US, 1037mb, and Nicole's ~985mb pressure, something you don't see in the summer time why TS force winds don't cover such a large area when surrounding pressure is not so high.

Excellant perfect thanks..that’s why I love this board we truly have experts here.

[eastcoastFL]

For our storm experts can you explain this expanse of winds way out from the center of the storm. Personally I cannot recall winds this far out from the center and nothing at all on the south side. I think they go over 350 miles out ?

That's due to the pressure gradient between strong surface high over the NE US, 1037mb, and Nicole's ~985mb pressure, something you don't see in the summer time why TS force winds don't cover such a large area when surrounding pressure is not so high.

Last update had TS Winds 460 miles from the center. Kinda crazy but you're correct. The HP gradient plus a rather large storm.

[Orlando]

Definitely pulling away from the PV streamer
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Dropping shear ahead
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Eyewall building clearly seen on VIS / IR Sat and Radar
NE of Marsh Harbor

GCANE....Thank you so much for your deep discussions. I have learned so much from your posts. You are very appreciated!

[GCANE]

Definitely pulling away from the PV streamer
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Dropping shear ahead
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Eyewall building clearly seen on VIS / IR Sat and Radar
NE of Marsh Harbor

GCANE....Thank you so much for your deep discussions. I have learned so much from your posts. You are very appreciated!

Thanks so much

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1590324765289742336

And the worst hasn't hit them yet.
I have a co-worker that lives just south in New Smyrna Beach, on the low end of the Island one block from the Indian "river" and 2 miles south from the Inlet, she had 1" from storm surge in her garage and back office room from Ian. She is not evacuating saying that the flooding was due to the 12" of rain that flooded the river that it was not from the storm surge, I tried to explain to her that the Indian river is not really a river, is more like a lagoon connected to Atlantic Ocean, where the storm surge comes in through Ponce Inlet.
I tried.

[NDG]

Time to head to the beach to take pictures and video of the waves. Will report back later.

[GCANE]

Looks like will be about 4 hrs in the Gulf Stream.
Ingesting some pretty high CAPE air from the east.
However, looks like shear maybe increasing at that time.

[wxman57]

For our storm experts can you explain this expanse of winds way out from the center of the storm. Personally I cannot recall winds this far out from the center and nothing at all on the south side. I think they go over 350 miles out ?

Of course, the pressure gradient between Nicole and high pressure to the north is a factor. But if Nicole was fully tropical, the winds would be a lot higher and the wind field a lot smaller. It's more of a hybrid storm. Second plane some evidence that might support a small area of 55kt/65 mph winds, but not 60 kts.

[GCANE]

Bahama radar back up.
Looks like a closed tight eye

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

[beachnut]

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1590324765289742336

And the worst hasn't hit them yet.
I have a co-worker that lives just south in New Smyrna Beach, on the low end of the Island one block from the Indian "river" and 2 miles south from the Inlet, she had 1" from storm surge in her garage and back office room from Ian. She is not evacuating saying that the flooding was due to the 12" of rain that flooded the river that it was not from the storm surge, I tried to explain to her that the Indian river is not really a river, is more like a lagoon connected to Atlantic Ocean, where the storm surge comes in through Ponce Inlet.
I tried.

It never ceases to amaze me how uniformed people can be about simple things! Please look at a map lol. Over here we're at the farthest tip of Cape Coral, on a saltwater basin that leads out under 9' beam bridges to the lower end of the Caloosahatchee River, which empties into the Gulf at the Sanibel Causeway. That's why we had storm surge, boats in other people's yard, severe water encroachment into many of our neighbors' homes, etc. We were extremely blessed though and missed water coming under our doors by mere inches! My brother and his wife live in Jensen Beach so keeping an eye on Nicole.

[kevin]

Nicole right now:

[kevin]

Second pass by AF309 found 68 kt FL winds.

[GCANE]

Latest VDM.
Back to being tropical. Most likely all the way to landfall

F. Eye Character: Open in the east
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)

[Blown Away]

Bahama radar back up.
Looks like a closed tight eye

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

Can you send a link to that radar?

[GCANE]

Bahama radar back up.
Looks like a closed tight eye

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

Can you send a link to that radar?

Its the GIF link already posted
I search but really don't know where Brian gets that from

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

Bahama radar