ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

The more south it consolidates, the fewer dry air problems it has.

It has made the jump north and may track almost due west until the ridge weakens Wednesday.
I had it about half a degree further north near 15N when it crosses -45 so am not very happy but it should find a weakness. The models will have something to initialize on now if the models still evolve cause and effect serially the output will have a lower error rate now.

Due to being south of where the models expected might be a threat to clip the northern lesser Antilles more than expected

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am becoming more and more concerned about this system. The conditions will be extremely favorable should it develop early. Also, it is doing a good job keeping out the SAL.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

The more south it consolidates, the fewer dry air problems it has.

It has made the jump north and may track almost due west until the ridge weakens Wednesday.
I had it about half a degree further north near 15N when it crosses -45 so am not very happy but it should find a weakness. The models will have something to initialize on now if the models still evolve cause and effect serially the output will have a lower error rate now.

It has crossed 45W but still below 15N, my general location for the CoC at 10:15 AM (15:15 UTC) is around 14.5N and around 45.5W.

[tropicwatch]

Why are they saying tropical depression in the tropical cyclone guidance message.

WTNT82 EGRR 280412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 40.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2022 0 14.2N 40.3W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2022 12 14.0N 43.4W 1010 35
0000UTC 29.08.2022 24 14.2N 45.1W 1010 30
1200UTC 29.08.2022 36 14.3N 45.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 30.08.2022 48 14.2N 46.5W 1009 27
1200UTC 30.08.2022 60 14.5N 47.4W 1008 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 72 14.6N 48.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 31.08.2022 84 15.4N 49.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 96 16.3N 50.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.09.2022 108 17.0N 53.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2022 120 16.7N 55.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.09.2022 132 17.9N 58.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2022 144 18.2N 59.7W 1006 34

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit again!


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-again.png

[chaser1]

The more south it consolidates, the fewer dry air problems it has.

It has made the jump north and may track almost due west until the ridge weakens Wednesday.
I had it about half a degree further north near 15N when it crosses -45 so am not very happy but it should find a weakness. The models will have something to initialize on now if the models still evolve cause and effect serially the output will have a lower error rate now.

Due to being south of where the models expected might be a threat to clip the northern lesser Antilles more than expected

That's a good point and depending on speed of forward motion, could alter future model recurve forecast to potentially progress far enough to the west toward Florida and the GOM at a time where SE CONUS ridging remains quite strong. Having said all that though, I tend to agree with Blown Away and NonSparta from about a page back. In spite of improving appearance which might well continue through today, I'd be gun-shy to tag this a TD quite yet especially minus any solid banding quite yet. Moreso, it's relatively small center within the broader elongated axis continues to suggest to me that a lack of really moist inflow is working against maintaining and increasing a significant degree of convection which in turn might better aid ongoing vertical development through a still relatively dry mid-level. Present shear charts suggest 91L might be threading a needle at the moment, but I would lean toward (at least a temporary) decrease in organization by later tonight or tomorrow.

[aspen]

ASCAT direct hit again!

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-again.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-again.png

Getting close. The circulation and associated convection isn’t all that great, but if it continues today, this could be TS Danielle before August ends. This pass did pick up a single >34kt wind barb.

[skyline385]

ASCAT direct hit again!

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-again.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-again.png

@BadPasses in shambles

[Kingarabian]

Why are they saying tropical depression in the tropical cyclone guidance message.

WTNT82 EGRR 280412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 40.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2022 0 14.2N 40.3W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2022 12 14.0N 43.4W 1010 35
0000UTC 29.08.2022 24 14.2N 45.1W 1010 30
1200UTC 29.08.2022 36 14.3N 45.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 30.08.2022 48 14.2N 46.5W 1009 27
1200UTC 30.08.2022 60 14.5N 47.4W 1008 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 72 14.6N 48.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 31.08.2022 84 15.4N 49.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 96 16.3N 50.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.09.2022 108 17.0N 53.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2022 120 16.7N 55.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.09.2022 132 17.9N 58.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2022 144 18.2N 59.7W 1006 34

It's a UKMET thing, not official NHC.

[skyline385]

Webb thinks its still an uphill battle for 91L

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563908474584502274

[MGC]

Close to TD, circulation needs to tighten up a bit......MGC

[NotSparta]

Webb thinks its still an uphill battle for 91L

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563908474584502274?s=20&t=RCRpIHA2Q3rUS1AG-q1Lbw

There is an uphill battle in the next few days, that's why we're not talking about it developing now

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhh what?

[cycloneye]

Updated best track up to 30kt and 1008 mbs.

AL, 91, 2022082812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 438W, 30, 1008, DB

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1013485834399383582/IMG_0928.png

Uhhh what?

is that a core!? Wait a second!??

[DestinHurricane]

Don't mean to doom but is anyone else getting 1947 vibes? At least in terms of track and setup.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wasn't 1947 pretty bad? It had a storm like Andrew I believe. As this system could be as well.

[DestinHurricane]

Wasn't 1947 pretty bad? It had a storm like Andrew I believe. As this system could be as well.

Yeah I’m referencing the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane as a potential analog. At least up to the Bahamas.

[Meteorcane]

Pretty impressive ASCAT passes, was not expecting such a robust low-lvl circulation this early. That being said it will run into some rapidly more hostile conditions as it moves westward (and northward specifically), and I don't think there is really any chance (at least in the next couple of days) it gets to an intensity where it can generate its own favorable mesoscale (near-core) environment to intensify despite the hostility of the large-scale environment. Consequently I would expect to see a lot of waxing and waning of convection and intensity over the next few days, before it potentially reaches more favorable conditions much further northwest.

[Frank P]

looking a just a little more ragged right now on sat, just spit out a massive outflow boundry from the southern half of the system..