ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[HoustonFrog]

So is it correct to say that based on what's happened so far with 99, and the status of the storm right now, that the models have moderately busted on it to date in regards to strength/organization? Past few days I'm not sure I've seen a model that really did much of anything with it...

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560651437566087168

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560651437566087168

Err behaving as planned with respect to what? Not as the models for sure…


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[jaguars_22]

What I don’t like is all the models show the precip moving towards Texas… from whatever this is… if this thing gets going would it move further north?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I still don't think the models have this initialized correctly. Too far south and east

[Iceresistance]

The Recon plane is expected to leave this afternoon, or Saturday.

[Aric Dunn]

What I don’t like is all the models show the precip moving towards Texas… from whatever this is… if this thing gets going would it move further north?

if it deepens enough and fast enough then yeah. south texas.. maybe up to Corpus Christi are in play.

[jaguars_22]

Unless this thing blows apart poor Mexico! Looks stationary too at the moment??

[Aric Dunn]

I still don't think the models have this initialized correctly. Too far south and east

for many days now they have been way off.... most still show all the vorticity in the mountains of mexico or the pacific lol ...being that all the vorticity missed honduras and stayed over the NW carrib ...

[aspen]

When’s recon set to go out?

Scheduled for 18z fix. So around 15:15z (11:15am edt) its scheduled to leave, and should be near the system around 2pm EDT or least in time for a potential 5pm advisory. 99l recon thread will have the details.

Well then they’re running around 40 minutes late. Tropical Tidbits has nothing for this mission.

[Kingarabian]

I still don't think the models have this initialized correctly. Too far south and east

for many days now they have been way off.... most still show all the vorticity in the mountains of mexico or the pacific lol ...being that all the vorticity missed honduras and stayed over the NW carrib ...

How does that happen though. I thought they use satellite data. Satellite data shows all convection well over water vs in land Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

I still don't think the models have this initialized correctly. Too far south and east

for many days now they have been way off.... most still show all the vorticity in the mountains of mexico or the pacific lol ...being that all the vorticity missed honduras and stayed over the NW carrib ...

How does that happen though. I thought they use satellite data. Satellite data shows all convection well over water vs in land Mexico.

Good question...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I still don't think the models have this initialized correctly. Too far south and east

for many days now they have been way off.... most still show all the vorticity in the mountains of mexico or the pacific lol ...being that all the vorticity missed honduras and stayed over the NW carrib ...

How does that happen though. I thought they use satellite data. Satellite data shows all convection well over water vs in land Mexico.

I don't know but something is very wrong if this is repeatedly not being imputed correctly

[jaguars_22]

Aric… what you thinking of this storm?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The University of Wisconsin data shows the vorticity stacked but right on the coast which is also obviously wrong. I wonder if there is a problem with the transfer of data from the satellites?
This is where it has the center which I don't think is correct

[tropicwatch]

for many days now they have been way off.... most still show all the vorticity in the mountains of mexico or the pacific lol ...being that all the vorticity missed honduras and stayed over the NW carrib ...

How does that happen though. I thought they use satellite data. Satellite data shows all convection well over water vs in land Mexico.

I don't know but something is very wrong if this is repeatedly not being imputed correctly

When recon gets in there, we will have a better idea of what is actually going on.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric… what you thinking of this storm?

Well, Quick spin up is looking quite likely ( likely already a Td/TS). How much and how fast is open for debate. But it has enough time to become a hurricane. northerly shear is supposed to gradually push into the northern gulf. but it might be inland before it impacts the system. Like I mentioned before if it deepens fast enough then steering would suggest possibly getting up to as far north as Corpus Christi before ridging builds in.

[jaguars_22]

No one has been saying Texas so I guess we just listen to them! All I’ve heard is this will stay well south of texas!

[skyline385]

It’s also expanded a fair bit in just 2.5 hours




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[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1560654515241594881