EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm
There you have it...
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm
Nice. Now we see how strong this gets
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
[div]BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES[
Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to
improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In
fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is
developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye
feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC
subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt
from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate
at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for
the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane.
The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the
large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning
has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A
continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is
anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge
poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward
ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to
become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as
the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast
track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the
adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous
forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track
guidance envelope.
The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an
inner core, which would likely support further intensification today
as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible
complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over
the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting
factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification
and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas
will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters
by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by
Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose
its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end
of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
/div]
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES[
Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to
improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In
fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is
developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye
feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC
subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt
from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate
at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for
the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane.
The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the
large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning
has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A
continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is
anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge
poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward
ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to
become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as
the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast
track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the
adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous
forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track
guidance envelope.
The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an
inner core, which would likely support further intensification today
as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible
complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over
the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting
factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification
and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas
will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters
by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by
Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose
its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end
of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
/div]
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Nascent eye has formed on visible.
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- skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Shear is visibly increasing over the system. Outflow looks less healthy from the northeast part of the storm.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Big difference compared to last night. Lots of dry air wrapping inside the core in the latest MW pass though.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Blas is greatly outperforming my expectations. ULAC is better aligned than I expected, and there may be enough divergence to fend off whatever increase in sub-outflow level shear occurs as a result of ULAC misalignment. The SHIPS output continues to call for an increase in shear soon, however. With its current structure, Blas has a good chance at reaching Category 2 intensity, but the vortex may be too tilted to intensify further.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Yeah recency bias got me with this one. I mean there was a time where storms off Mexico over 31C waters would easily become hurricanes. Hasn't been the case the past 3 years lol.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Before genesis I didn’t think this would be more than a mid grade Ts. Threw me off too.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
A. 02E (BLAS)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 15.0N
D. 103.0W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...A LLCC EMBDEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/1147Z 14.6N 102.5W SSMIS
15/1314Z 14.7N 102.6W SSMIS
...HOSLEY
B. 15/1730Z
C. 15.0N
D. 103.0W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...A LLCC EMBDEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/1147Z 14.6N 102.5W SSMIS
15/1314Z 14.7N 102.6W SSMIS
...HOSLEY
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.
https://i.imgur.com/aBMaez9.gif
In what way is dry air limiting this?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.
https://i.imgur.com/aBMaez9.gif
In what way is dry air limiting this?
The eye not clearing out.
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- skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
EPAC is producing some pretty systems so far. Meanwhile we get Alex lol
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
EP, 02, 2022061518, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1029W, 75, 980, HU
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SmprcYt.gif
Easterly shear seems pretty strong
Yeah, about 20 knots. But the inner core is healthy.
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