ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

There is a system in the EPAC that's pulling 93l into Mexico.

[tropicwatch]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall
is also expected over portions of southern Mexico during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en
route to investigate the system, and interests in southwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

[underthwx]

There is a system in the EPAC that's pulling 93l into Mexico.

One of the dynamics at work, which will aid to confine 93L to the BOC...if this were earlier in the season, I am sure that 93L would have many on alert across the Gulf coast. As I mentioned earlier, our friends in Mexico need to be aware of this system, and the potential issues with rainfall it presents. I for one am confident that the ongoing reconnaissance mission into 93L, will be both revealing, and provide a crystal clear picture of what to expect from this disturbance.

[Teban54]

A TS now? Based on what evidence of a well-defined LLC and 34 kt winds? The last scatterometer pass indicated a trof axis. Absolutely nothing would indicate a track to the north or north-northeast (toward the northern Gulf Coast or Florida). This is trapped in the BoC and will move into southern Mexico as the strong jet to its north digs south Wed/Thu.

No

Wxman57 is a master of his craft, I wouldn’t second guess him. This is clearly not a tropical cyclone nor will it be.

NHC clearly disagree as they upped development chances to 80/80.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups starting to appear over the Yucatan.
That should add some juice into 93L tonight.

[GCANE]

Whoa - recon measuring nearly 60 mm/hr rain rate.
This puppy has some life in it.

[GCANE]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

[Aric Dunn]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

we can add it to the ever growing list..

they have not fully descended. but they will likely find a TS pretty easily.

ASCAT is plenty for an upgrade already.

[GCANE]

Seeing some new convection firing on the northern periphery of the CDO.
It's going to push out that jet and steer its own course.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

TS Karl imminent.

[zzzh]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

The aircraft is still at 350mb...

[GCANE]

CAPE in the GoM now up to 5500.

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

This thing is really getting its act together fast. How favorable are conditions over the next day? Would something like Humberto (2007) or Marco (2008) be possible? A smaller GOM system that spins up and intensifies pretty fast? I know we don't have much in the way of model guidance for this.

[Tailgater33]

CAPE in the GoM now up to 5500.

OO Next model runs will be interesting

[tropicwatch]

Pressure is steadily falling at the buoy just north of 93L.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

[tropicwatch]

HH finding steady set of 40+ surface winds. Might be time to pull the trigger.

[GCANE]

More SFMR and est surface winds above TS.

[zzzh]

Max fl 46kt. Although I am not sure why recon is flying at 650mb.

[TallyTracker]

This thing is really getting its act together fast. How favorable are conditions over the next day? Would something like Humberto (2007) or Marco (2008) be possible? A smaller GOM system that spins up and intensifies pretty fast? I know we don't have much in the way of model guidance for this.

Marco ‘08 was way smaller than this. Basically a thunderstorm with a circulation.

There are dozens of analogs for this one ranging from minimal TS to Cat 1 hurricanes. Doubt it will be stronger than a Cat 1 since it’s already halfway across the BOC. But you never know! That jet streak is venting it like crazy at the moment.