ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Europa non è lontana]

Indeed, subtropical storm Alpha back in 2020 is as far as I know the only (sub)tropical storm to make landfall in Portugal since observations officially started.

Officially, yes, that is true, but there was an undesignated possible subtropical storm in late November 1983 which showed similarites to Alpha that made landfall in Portugal, and an undesignated likely subtropical storm that made landfall on the Portuguese/Galician border in late October 1997. In addition, there was also a undesignated likely tropical cyclone that made landfall near Gibraltar in early October 1997.

[aspen]

ADT, SATCON, and CIMSS ASMU all support TS intensity, and microwave clearly shows a developing eyewall. I have no idea why the NHC still has this as a >1010mb tropical depression as of now.

[Europa non è lontana]

While systems at latitudes this high do tend to have lower intensities than their presentations suggest, at this point I don't see the rationale for keeping this as a tropical depression; it seems quite clear to me that this more than meets the criteria for TS intensity in the absence of surface reports and scatterometer data.

[FireRat]

The NHC perhaps will name this Danielle come 11 AM, they really do seem more reluctant to pull the trigger this season compared to the past several years.

[Iceresistance]

Is that an eye feature already? It is likely a dry slot from the gif, but that is strengthening very rapidly!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/67739319.gif

[MHC Tracking]

A couple 35 kt barbs. Maybe Danielle incoming at 15z

[BobHarlem]

It's a safe bet the NHC upgrades at 11AM, and probably will release that advisory a few minutes before 11am.

[NDG]

Has there ever been a hurricane that has formed this far north? I cannot recall.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good! Should get upgraded within the next 20 minutes or so

[BobHarlem]

It's Danielle now.

[Iceresistance]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...

3:00 PM GMT Thu Sep 1
Location: 38.1°N 44.7°W
Moving: E at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Iceresistance]

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical
Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under
an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable,
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the
next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[Ntxw]

With a little help it could go major. It'll meander around the same area for awhile. Might be 15-20 units of ACE.

[wxman57]

Given how rapidly it is organizing, I don't think it'll take 48 hours to become a hurricane. Maybe 12 hours.

[aspen]

Given how rapidly it is organizing, I don't think it'll take 48 hours to become a hurricane. Maybe 12 hours.

Do you think this has a chance to become a high-latitude major like Ophelia or Epsilon?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with a potentially conservative 50 knots at 5:00 pm.

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

Danielle may not be your conventional deep tropics hurricane, but it might become stronger than anything in 2013 at this rate

[NotSparta]

Danielle may not be your conventional deep tropics hurricane, but it might become stronger than anything in 2013 at this rate

Yeah that's why it's hard to get a season like 2013 where the strongest storm is a Category 1. You'd have to have every single storm get shut out. Can't have a single storm that falls through the cracks and gets strong like Danielle looks set to do