ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

The high should still weaken by this week which should jog this north before it rebuilds and continues WNW.

[toad strangler]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

And… potentially out to sea from there.

You know the drill, we’ll be sucking cirrus as Danielle lifts up and out to the NE on the western Atlantic Basin climo super highway

[ScottNAtlanta]

You can see the southern blobs inflow coming right out of the northern one. This is pretty close to a TD. I am starting to give JB's forecast a second look. He was calling for much quicker development.

[Iceresistance]

The high should still weaken by this week which should jog this north before it rebuilds and continues WNW.

I'm thinking that this may not be the case, we're coming into September and that is usually when the Bermuda Ridge is at its strongest.

[aspen]

You can see the southern blobs inflow coming right out of the northern one. This is pretty close to a TD. I am starting to give JB's forecast a second look. He was calling for much quicker development.

Assuming it doesn’t take a gulp of dry air or suffer from Dmin, then we could have a TD (or TS, given ASCAT’s low bias) in the next 24 hours or so. But there’s a lot stacked against 91L in the short term, and we might end up with a dead August.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

[InfernoFlameCat]

That is closed off. Impressive. Lucky ASCAT.

[Iceresistance]

It seems like that the LLC is really trying to spin faster very quickly!


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/24407803.gif

[MarioProtVI]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

I'd release a STWO and up this to 70/90. Very close to becoming a TD.

[Kingarabian]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

This meets the requirements for a TC. Should be a TD already. Has been maintaining convection as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don't think it is quite a tropical cyclone yet. It is not organized enough. The convection is not all that well organized.

[skyline385]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

This meets the requirements for a TC. Should be a TD already. Has been maintaining convection as well.

Time for another PTC

[BobHarlem]

I don't think that ASCAT pass alone it enough to call it a depression, maybe if it persists all day, they may up outlook chances on it though. I still don't expect any development in the short term, water vapor sat really tells me why.

[MGC]

No rush to upgrade as it is several days away from the islands. Looks good though. Just hope it passes north of the islands and recurves OTS......MGC

[Blown Away]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

This meets the requirements for a TC. Should be a TD already. Has been maintaining convection as well.

Time for another PTC

Yep, no way NHC goes directly to TD. I’ve enjoyed the updates using may, might, appears, could be, generally conducive to support development. This season would make me hesitant to pull the yep it’s developing trigger.

[skyline385]

ASCAT direct hit! We may have a TD very soon.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT.png

25-km shows it slightly elongated but TD probably soon

[Iceresistance]

Wind Shear has collapsed near the CoC, the upper-level anticyclone has developed basically right over it, which is creating outflow with the system.


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/wg8shr.gif

[NotSparta]

If the models are correct, this is its attempt at TD status before dry air and shear starts getting to it which would weaken it again. Won't be surprising if it starts looking worse soon

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

The more south it consolidates, the fewer dry air problems it has.

It has made the jump north and may track almost due west until the ridge weakens Wednesday.
I had it about half a degree further north near 15N when it crosses -45 so am not very happy but it should find a weakness. The models will have something to initialize on now if the models still evolve cause and effect serially the output will have a lower error rate now.