ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3208
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
It is looking like a decent low at the surface. I think they might upgrade to a TD depending on how the rest of the recon goes.
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Change of the wind directions.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Are we about to get a 1018mb td
The pressure is actually around 1014mb but still that’s very high.
The pressure is actually around 1014mb but still that’s very high.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Are we about to get a 1018mb td
looks about 1012 to 1014
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 501
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Are we about to get a 1018mb td
looks about 1012 to 1014
How many millibars is needed to classify a depression?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Are we about to get a 1018mb td
looks about 1012 to 1014
How many millibars is needed to classify a depression?
There is none. background pressures are high so the ratio is normal.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
jaguars_22 wrote:Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!
it could very well reform/take over to the NE for sure.
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:jaguars_22 wrote:Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!
it could very well reform/take over to the NE for sure.
I wondered about that as well
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
I suppose it's possible, that 95L remains a wave, or disturbance, and doesn't attain TD status before moving ashore?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 501
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Idk I see 2 areas like wxman mentioned yesterday. I see one east of Brownsville with a curvature to the thunderstorms and I see another where u mentioned aric! That’s the issue here they are both fighting each other. Here in Victoria it looks like we will miss the rain if the system comes directly over us.
1 likes
- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5679
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Still 40% as of 2pm NHC outlook
Yup, no real surprise I think. It's going to run out of time soon if it doesn't get its act together.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.
https://i.ibb.co/w4s2tvK/Screenshot-2022-06-29-120649.png
Aric, would a "center" relocation, change the current forecast track and possible affected areas?...for example, an eastward shift in track, possibly towards the North Central gulf coast etc?.....to my untrained eye, it seems as if 95L is basically going nowhere fast, which gives it plenty of time for relocation of centers, and so on...and adds to the possibilities, and uncertainty with 95L
Last edited by underthwx on Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.
https://i.ibb.co/w4s2tvK/Screenshot-2022-06-29-120649.png
Aric, would a "center" relocation, change the current forecast track and possible affected areas?...for example, an eastward shift in track, etc?.....to my untrained eye, it seems as if 95L is basically going nowhere fast, which gives it plenty of time for relocation of centers, and so on...and adds to the possibilities, and uncertainty with 95L
it would just delay the timing for moving inland.. a little more north than currently depicted.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
3 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.
4 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2302
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.
I was actually thinking that earlier as well. It'll be a little funny seeing two Twos on the map.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests