ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

I think it's a little misleading to go back a week and find the one forecast track that went over the Fort Myers area and then claim the forecast was "phenomenal." I don't assign any blame to anyone at the NHC or any other forecasting agency; this was a uniquely difficult storm to track. And yes, the landfall point never left the cone. But given the large number of policymaking decisions and personal choices that were made based on significantly different forecasts over the last few days, I'm going to call this one a forecasting "miss" that needs to be researched in the future.

I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

[canebeard]

This strange looking funnel type cloud was shot in Davie, Florida (Broward County) just before dark last night in outer band of Ian. Damage was occurring under this to homes and shopping centers.

https://i.imgur.com/Bwts2r4.jpg

That's not a tornado?

I think it is; it just looked unconventional, with all it's rough edges. Below are storm reports posted from SPC for that time.

2323 2 S COOPER CITY BROWARD FL 2603 8027 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)
2351 2 SW HOLLYWOOD BROWARD FL 2601 8019 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)

[RevanTheJedi96]

I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

[bob rulz]

Pretty tired of NHC bashing. They do a remarkable job and know more than any of us here do, unless you're a professional met. And they have a lot more of those than this forum does. But we do not know everything. They go with the best information they have, but nature is still an unpredictable beast.

[Sciencerocks]

[bahamaswx]

Time to see how well Ian reacts to being over ocean again.

[RevanTheJedi96]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4593/lMYyg8.gif

Wow Ian still looks impressive for being over land for such a long time.

[FLLurker32]

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.

[Hammy]

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.

Model data has been available to the public since at least 1999 because I was using it on various public sites that far back.

[canebeard]

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.

I recall that up until the late 1970s or early 80s the NHC only shared their 72 hour forecast positions with other weather service offices. The teletyhped
discussions always were preceded with "For official use only" as a header. A New Orleans TV weatherguy once broadcast the forecast positions and Neil Frank (NHC Director) had him banned from the airways for his "leaking" this offical discussion transmission.

[skillz305]

It’s getting really damn windy and gusty here in Indian River County. Did Ian not move as north as projected? What are we looking at here? It’s ALL wind and no rain where I’m at.

[SouthernBreeze]

NHC 2 am says 75 mph, technically a hurricane, but they show it as a storm, why would that be?

[StAuggy]

Waking up to a constant and steady loud wind and rain here in St Augustine. Checking some local obs we’ve had sustained to 37 with gusts to 48 as of recently.

For comparison when Irma came through the airport here recorded sustained to 50 with the highest gust to 71 and that took out power for 3-4 days at my parents place.

I’m def seeing a much more NE movement of the centers d looks like it will exit just north of Melbourne but south of the cape.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wait, didn't the rain suppose to last through most of tomorrow(Thursday)? At least that's what I saw on the maps today, but when I look at the radar, it looks to me that the rain is already on its way out? I'm happy if that's the case, but I must have missed something.

[StAuggy]

There have been a ton of velocity couplets just offshore of Daytona and now working up north closer to my location. They are typical quick spin up duration and none seem to be making it all the way back to the coast yet. A couple were pretty substantial so anyone along the coast in that stretch be mindful for the next hour or two. Everyone’s prob sleeping

[typhoonty]

There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.

[jlauderdal]

There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.

The NHC should never issue watches/warnings based on anything other than their criteria and it's really a very simple criteria. When you start making exceptions(like for DMA or anything else) then you lose consistency and then you lose trust. Your beef is with the government and that's fine. Complacency is always a concern but that's on the citizens. We live in a high-risk area for hurricanes, the media is very good about telling people not to focus on the line. If people stayed in an evacuation zone, tough. Even your grandmother had a warning and she decided to stay and that's ok, she makes her own decision. I have never evacuated but I also have the means to get to my roof and I am at 6.2 ft above sea level. We must stop blaming NHC, government, media and anyone else other than ourselves for preps and ultimately our actions. There is more than ample info when these storms come in.

[NDG]

Ian smells the Atlantic Ocean already, I’m actually seeing the strongest winds from it right now from the spiral band around its center.


 https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1575413492408266752

[NDG]

I just sent a Tweet to our NWS office is these winds are accurate at this station in Daytona Beach which is getting hit with the same spiral band I am.


https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... W&hours=72

[blueskies]

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol[/quote

People should not be trusting their safety to unsourced social media. The tremendous resources invested in model data is not intended for thrill seekers.