ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[Category5Kaiju]

Recon found 72kt flight-level winds (away from the center, but still)

Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface

[Sciencerocks]

Recon found 72kt flight-level winds (away from the center, but still)

Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface

A PTC with a well defined LLC producing hurricane force sustain winds.

[beoumont]

Recon found 72kt flight-level winds (away from the center, but still)

Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface

I recall a couple of past recon. reports into very sharp easterly waves that had wind gusts of 75+ mph. One of those was a wave at longitude 65 west that
eventually became Hurricane Camille, 1969.

No telling if a similar occurrence would be designated a PTC by today's NHC.

[weeniepatrol]

[KirbyDude25]

Looks like recon found a pretty convincing center. We might have Alex at the 6Z update (at what intensity, I'm not sure, given the disparity in flight-level and surface winds)

[zzh]

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 10A

[Teban54]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050553
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

"Finally"

[KirbyDude25]

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

They're just as exasperated as we are with this storm. 995mb/45kt for this advisory, let's see what they say in the 5 AM Eastern discussion

[galaxy401]

We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.

[KirbyDude25]

We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.

It finally managed to keep a (kind of) well-defined center. The look it has reminds me a bit of Odette, though this one's a lot closer to land

[ThomasW]

We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.

It finally managed to keep a (kind of) well-defined center. The look it has reminds me a bit of Odette, though this one's a lot closer to land

Seems to be a little better defined than Odette. That storm had a surface trough draped over the circulation when it was classified (check 18z surface analysis from that day for reference), then almost immediately opened up into a trough as shown by later ASCAT data. This at least possesses a tight and well-defined LLC, but the convective organization is subpar to say the least. Borderline classification but with the strength of the system I'd lean towards it being a TC.

[FireRat]

Man I was starting to think this would never become Alex

The storm earned its name after a hard fought battle, and made 'Alex' yet again another memorable system for its quirk... First week of Hurricane Season storm that flooded the heck out of Miami!

[al78]

All I can say is WOW. You'd think a place like Miami would be able to handle 10" but I guess not if the surrounding area was already saturated. That
looks more like the Texas coast after a hurricane!

10 inches is a lot of rain, so no surprise it will cause significant flooding, especially in an urban area where the water runs off the hard surfaces. This was the effect of 15.9 inches falling on one part of the UK Lake District over two days in December 2015:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQXKaL2iYQo&t=109s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vop2u4KsbTM

This was a 48 hour UK rainfall record.

[115MphAgatha]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0857.shtml

And Alex makes a fashionably late entrance to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Alex is ahead of the normal average of the first storm formation.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1533345079586263040

[wxman57]

Recon found 72kt flight-level winds (away from the center, but still)

Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface

Almost certainly not. It's hard for a disturbance or tropical wave to produce such a strong pressure gradient such that sustained 1-min winds reach 75 mph. Typically, tropical waves can produce strong wind gusts, perhaps to 60-70 mph for heavier squalls, but sustained winds on the north side of westward moving waves are usually 30-35 mph.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Alex Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ALEX IS STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Alex have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h)
and that the central pressure is near 993 mb.

SUMMARY OF 845 AM EDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.39 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kazmit]

Always interesting to watch a PTC become a 60mph TS overnight... especially when it's bearing down on your island.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, it's nice to have a hurricane season that starts in June for a change.

[aspen]

Baroclinic forcing is in full effect. The recon plane found flight-level winds of up to 85 kt, but they aren’t translating to the surface well at all; SFMR supports 50-55 kt. Perhaps there’s a chance Alex could hit 60 kt before it starts losing its (vaguely) tropical characteristics.