ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

Impacts would be well after election day and planning would only come into play if the stronger solutions are correct. Euro is still not very enthused

[robbielyn]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

Impacts would be well after election day and planning would only come into play if the stronger solutions are correct. Euro is still not very enthused

[CronkPSU]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

Impacts would be well after election day and planning would only come into play if the stronger solutions are correct. Euro is still not very enthused

not for Florida...we will start feeling effects of this election night, and people need to start prepping Monday and Tuesday

[Sciencerocks]

[blp]

Interesting swirl.

[GCANE]

Looks like the swirl is shaking off an outflow boundary impinging on it from the west.

[Blown Away]

Coming together!

LLC seems to be pulling together quickly, wouldn’t surprise me if that W turn occurs a little sooner and we get away from the jump N then WSW. That may open the door to Keys to WPB. JMHO

[GCANE]

ML moist air now covering all of PR.
Dry slot continuing to erode quickly.

[TheBigO]

Man, the last thing my county (Seminole) needs right now is a multi-day rain event. We’re still getting flash flood alerts daily due to the water still around from Ian.

[LarryWx]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

As was mentioned earlier, there has never been a US election with an Atlantic tropical cyclone threatening a portion of the lower 48 so close to Election Day though PR did have to deal with flooding rainfall from TS Klaus in 1984 on Election Day:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Klaus_(1984)

Keep these in mind:
"A watch is issued when hurricane conditions are a possibility within 48 hours. A warning is issued when a hurricane is expected in an area within 36 hours."

Based on the possibility of hurricane conditions in parts of FL on Wednesday night, there could easily be not just a H watch but even a H warning already issued on Election Day for part of FL! A watch could be issued Monday night. The implications of this possibility as regards the upcoming election are totally unpredictable.

[Gums]

Salute!

jez shows to go ya, huh?

We are now praying for a front, but NWS foecasts for next 5 days is no help for one of those knights in shining armor we have had in late fall storm events. Sheeesh....

Were here for 1985 Kate, about 50 miles west of landfall and it weakened a lot before striking. Our wind was nil. Mexico Beach is rebuilding big time and all the new building procedures are way better than 1985 and even many places that Michael wiped out 4 years ago. Was just there last Sunday and Monday. If Joe is right, this storm will coast near Palm Beach, then rake the coast on up to Carolinas. Praying he's right.

Gums sends...

P.S. Get those poptarts now! Add beer and an extra propane tank while at it.

[Blown Away]

Very little coverage here in SFL, once the NHC Advisory begins SFL may be close to 3 day cone with hurricane landfall. If all the models are correct TS conditions begin Wednesday.

This will ramp up quickly! FL is tough, we will vote Tuesday, deal with hurricane Thursday, and back to normal with nice cool weather next week!

[cane5]

Interesting swirl.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbc2e3a4d16720e376dd9af08186701c6b39482c3f4431667926ff816ac7ce05.gif

What’s really eerie is this is where Andrew formed with a stubborn high pressure ridge holding it down. No not comparing it to Andrew at all but just where storms sometimes develop and how the the ridging plays such a big part. In fact a trough by Saturday is too late for S Fla but will kick it up North.

[Category5Kaiju]

28 C waters everywhere to the east of Florida, where this system is projected to go

[GCANE]

IR Sat analysis just came in.
http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc ... 2211061500

Will be interesting to see how NHC deals with it.

[MetroMike]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

As was mentioned earlier, there has never been a US election with an Atlantic tropical cyclone threatening a portion of the lower 48 so close to Election Day though PR did have to deal with flooding rainfall from TS Klaus in 1984 on Election Day:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Klaus_(1984)

Keep these in mind:
"A watch is issued when hurricane conditions are a possibility within 48 hours. A warning is issued when a hurricane is expected in an area within 36 hours."

Based on the possibility of hurricane conditions in parts of FL on Wednesday night, there could easily be not just a H watch but even a H warning already issued on Election Day for part of FL! A watch could be issued Monday night. The implications of this possibility as regards the upcoming election are totally unpredictable.

Exactly I echo your thoughts on this. Seems there is apathy with regards to planning for a potential event in Florida and a failure to be proactive with any implications this may have on Election Day itself with prepping involved.
Could be planning to fail.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[GCANE]

Swirl is looking more symmetrical.
If a big tower fires off, I'll put money on NHC scrambling recon.

[Blown Away]

IR Sat analysis just came in.
http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc ... 2211061500

Will be interesting to see how NHC deals with it.

Am I reading that correctly? 1006 mb and TD level winds??

[GCANE]

IR Sat analysis just came in.
http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc ... 2211061500

Will be interesting to see how NHC deals with it.

Am I reading that correctly? 1006 mb and TD level winds??

I think I saw some 35 knt barbs in there