ATL: EARL - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC shifts back well east of the Bahamas, picks it up earlier. Also has a very quick intensification rate compared to the 12z.

Intensity still playing a big role here.

00z UKMET not much difference this run. Still weak and drifting NNW into the Bahamas.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro even further SW compared to the 12z run and is over the Bahamas. Yet to be picked up.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 168-216. Picked up but there's a ridge building to its east. Might be an east coast threat this run.



Finally OTS hour 240. Couple of hundred miles east of NC.

[Nimbus]

Don't like the pattern of ridge persistence anomalies we are seeing at the end of the model runs.
WXman57 mentioned that Florida has been beating the odds for landfall, but I would think this system might be a concern for Georgia to Cape Hatteras if the model percentages don't return to neutral.

[Blown Away]

00z Ukmet... Continues doing its thing with a weak 91L in the SE Bahamas in 5-6 days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The 6z GFS is out to lunch. There is no way that can verify. Just look at current WV loop and you can see there is zero path out when it is trying to take it out. Systems like this that persist for long periods of time under less than ideal conditions tend to pop once they find their sweet spot...if they are able to find it. Might not be till the Bahamas, but it could happen quickly when/if it does.

[NDG]

Euro ensembles after the majority showing 91L going well OTS now are split.

[tolakram]

It will be interesting to see what actually happens. So far the Euro and UKMET have been very similar, both are trending to pretty much nothing.

0Z UKMET

[tolakram]

0Z Euro


0Z and 6Z GFS very similar. The GFS is better with a sheared environment and picking out competing centers, usually, but confidence this year is ZIP.


0Z CMC

[tolakram]

With the hurricane models I'll use the parent view to show where it's going.

HWRF 6Z


HAFS

[NDG]

The GFS will eventually trend towards the Euro and UKMET, it is doing a horrible job with ridging. The Bermuda ridge is not going anywhere, overall.

[Nimbus]

The GFS will eventually trend towards the Euro and UKMET, it is doing a horrible job with ridging. The Bermuda ridge is not going anywhere, overall.

https://i.imgur.com/d48rtcN.gif

The key ridge forecast will come into play after 3 days.
I couldn't do it looking at the water vapor loop.
If you were a space alien from another planet maybe you could see some pattern in the arctic vortex?

[NDG]

Huge difference in the pattern between the GFS and Euro as in little as 90 hrs through at least day 7.
The GFS shows a trough digging down near Bermuda while the Euro keeps ridging in place in that area.

[tolakram]

We might get a low end tropical storm out of this, maybe.

6Z euro

[Kingarabian]

We might get a low end tropical storm out of this, maybe.

6Z euro
https://i.imgur.com/fTUmyzz.gif

Yeah maybe at best a weak TS over the next 5-7 days. After that, it'll be in area where climo favors a stronger system.

[sma10]

We might get a low end tropical storm out of this, maybe.

6Z euro
https://i.imgur.com/fTUmyzz.gif

Yeah maybe at best a weak TS over the next 5-7 days. After that, it'll be in area where climo favors a stronger system.

It's one of those very strange ironies. The longer it goes being a nothing, the likelihood of it being an actual threat ticks up a small notch

[Landy]

Pretty sizeable shift SW on 12z ICON, for what it's worth. Keeping it weak while passing N of the Greater Antilles at a WNW bearing. Maybe worth considering since UKMET and Euro are similar.

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

GFS a little less organized than last run, and so far a little south and west.

[Kingarabian]

Still waiting on the ICON on Tropical Tidbits.