tolakram wrote:WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?
No, I can't, it appears to be interaction with something but it's over my skill level.
https://i.imgur.com/D3HaxcV.gif
The NHC discussion from 5 AM discusses this:
Ian's center continues to move northeastward across central Florida,
and nearly all of the heavy rains are located to the north over
northeastern Florida. NWS WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the
Melbourne and Tampa radars have decreased significantly since last
evening, and based on that data, Ian is now a tropical storm with
maximum sustained winds of 55 kt. This intensity is also supported
by wind observations across Florida, with the highest recent
sustained wind being 52 kt at New Smyrna Beach.
Ian's current motion is northeastward, or 040/7 kt. The tail end
of a deep-layer trough is expected to detach from the main trough
axis over the southeastern United States during the next 24 to 48
hours, and Ian is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of
this feature, turning north-northeastward later today and then
north-northwestward by Friday night. In this scenario, Ian should
move off the east coast of Florida later today, and then swing
northward toward the South Carolina coast during the next 36 hours
or so. Although there is some cross-track spread in the guidance,
they all agree on this general scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies where most of the models are packed. No significant changes
were made to the previous prediction.
Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours or
so, mainly due to strong southwesterly shear. After 24 hours,
global models are suggesting that Ian could have some favorable
interaction with the eastern U.S. trough, all while it's moving
over the warm 28-29 degree Celsius waters of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, some slight strengthening is indicated in the official
forecast by 36 hours, and Ian could be near hurricane intensity as
it's approaching the coast of South Carolina. This possibility is
accounted for by the Hurricane Watch that is effect for the area.
After moving inland, Ian is expected to weaken quickly, and global
models indicate it should dissipate or become absorbed by another
broader area of low pressure over the Carolinas by day 3.