ATL: NICOLE - Models

[AutoPenalti]

FYI GEFS Ensemble mean is near boynton beach.

12z?

[SFLcane]

FYI GEFS Ensemble mean is near boynton beach.

12z?

Yes.

[jlauderdal]

FYI GEFS Ensemble mean is near boynton beach.

Some members into Broward, too early to tell if the earlier north runs are bogus.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge takes longer to move out looks like.

[LarryWx]

Summary of 12Z major operational models so far:


- 12Z GFS and ICON are both between WPB and Stuart.

- 12Z CMC is near Ft. Pierce.

- 12Z UKMET is in general vicinity of Vero Beach per interpolation of 12 hour interval maps. That will be refined later.

Edit: Hourly maps show 12Z UKMET landfall 15 miles north of Vero Beach.

[ronjon]

Interesting to note the 12z GFS keeps it a hurricane across the state, something my local station are not publically saying. How can this track stay so south when official track stays North?

Its one model run in a very unstable modeling environment, will have to see a solid trend which we dont have. We had south and west trend yesterday which evaporated today and of course has increased anxiety, even at NHC.

I think NHC alluded to track adjustments will need to be made in their 10 am discussion based on it having already reached its furthest point northward and models may have to adjust for that. But waiting on reaching more consensus.

[MetroMike]

Summary of 12Z major operational models so far:


- 12Z GFS and ICON are both between WPB and Stuart.

- 12Z CMC is near Ft. Pierce.

- 12Z UKMET is in general vicinity of Vero Beach per interpolation of 12 hour interval maps. That will be refined later.

12Z NAM is further south than the 6Z cannot tell the city on Pivotal Weather site.

[LarryWx]

Summary of 12Z major operational models so far:


- 12Z GFS and ICON are both between WPB and Stuart.

- 12Z CMC is near Ft. Pierce.

- 12Z UKMET is in general vicinity of Vero Beach per interpolation of 12 hour interval maps. That will be refined later.

12Z NAM is further south than the 6Z cannot tell the city on Pivotal Weather site.

Indeed. It looks like 12Z NAM is near Stuart. 6Z was north of Vero.

So, all major 12Z models are south of their 6Z runs so far.

Edit: 12Z HMON going to come in well south of its 6Z!

[aspen]

12z HWRF is MUCH stronger and slower. Initialization is in the upper 980s, and by 00z Thursday it’s 967mb but still over the Bahamas and probably 12 hours from landfall.

[LarryWx]

12z HWRF is MUCH stronger and slower. Initialization is in the upper 980s, and by 00z Thursday it’s 967mb but still over the Bahamas and probably 12 hours from landfall.

On Tidbits, 12Z HMON at hour 39 is SE of hour 36. Is that posssible? Then it landfalls Canaveral, which is 40 miles south of 6Z.

12Z HWRF breaks the trend and is a little north of its 6Z. It landfalls at Cape Canaveral.

[Poonwalker]

So it’s looking like the entire Florida peninsula is under gun including a gulf tap dance?

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF is MUCH stronger and slower. Initialization is in the upper 980s, and by 00z Thursday it’s 967mb but still over the Bahamas and probably 12 hours from landfall.

On Tidbits, 12Z HMON at hour 39 is SE of hour 36. Is that posssible? Then it landfalls Canaveral, which is 40 miles south of 6Z.

12Z HWRF breaks the trend and is a little north of its 6Z. It landfalls at Cape Canaveral.

HWRF and track , i will take a hard pass

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nam 3km has a cat 4 at landfall.

[chris_fit]

So almost all the models shifted S/W somewhat at 12z -- Do these have the NOAA SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE DATA in them? Or will those be in the 18z?

[sicktght311]

a 962mb hurricane on the HWRF should wake some people in florida up quick today

[SouthFLTropics]

Despite the lower pressure on the HWRF, the windspeed still only shows Cat 1.


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[Nimbus]

CDO has worked out the dry air and appears center has started the slide westsouthwest
.
Without recon it may just be the convection bloom that is alarming, but HWRF and NAM are calling for this intensification to continue all the way in from here.

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF

[tolakram]

HWRF trend

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running