ATL: NICOLE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS into WPB/Jupiter area… this is crazy. I didn’t have a hurricane hit from the east in November on my 2022 bingo card.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

12z GFS looks SW and into Palm beach

At 983 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/XXJMLYJ.png

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS landfalls between WPB and Stuart.

[tolakram]

12Z ICON

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

ICON trend

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[aspen]

Surprisingly, despite being another MH landfall run, the 06z NAM isn’t unreasonable. It’s actually pretty conservative during the next 12-18 hours and doesn’t get Nicole into the 980s until midnight, and RI doesn’t start until tomorrow morning. Its landfall intensity of the upper/mid 960s is probably the absolute most that can be considered a reasonable upper possible intensity limit.

The 12z is back to being the typical NAM. Gets this down into the 970s within 12-18 hours and has a 947mb Cat 4 landfall. Not gonna happen.

[AutoPenalti]

Would not be surprised to see continued SW shifts into tomorrow with warnings extending into Broward and northern Dade.

[MetroMike]

Interesting to note the 12z GFS keeps it a hurricane across the state, something my local station are not publically saying. How can this track stay so south when official track stays North?

[tolakram]

EURO trend

[tolakram]

HWRF trend

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC landfalls near Ft. Pierce.

[jlauderdal]

GFS into WPB/Jupiter area… this is crazy. I didn’t have a hurricane hit from the east in November on my 2022 bingo card.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cat 2 preps required, i thought you were off the hook earlier but the modeling is really unstable noe, if the nhc is struggling to smooth it out its a big issue. The tvcn is much further north than I thought it would be today.

[tolakram]

Interesting to note the 12z GFS keeps it a hurricane across the state, something my local station are not publically saying. How can this track stay so south when official track stays North?

The track is moved slowly as models adjust, to keep from jumping all over the place. I think it's one of the things to be discussed after Ian's too slow track adjustment. Historically it's worked quite well, we'll see how it works this time.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/wBTq1QXC/gfs.png

Yeah one millibar down from my pivotal image.

[tolakram]

GFS rel humidity

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET way south vs prior run, which was just south of Cape Canaveral. This run is way down in the Vero Beach vicinity as best as I can tell from the 12 hour coordinates!

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 72.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2022 0 27.5N 72.2W 997 36
0000UTC 09.11.2022 12 27.2N 74.5W 996 43
1200UTC 09.11.2022 24 26.8N 76.4W 994 44
0000UTC 10.11.2022 36 26.8N 78.9W 993 44
1200UTC 10.11.2022 48 28.5N 82.0W 992 40
0000UTC 11.11.2022 60 30.0N 84.6W 992 34
1200UTC 11.11.2022 72 32.3N 84.7W 999 26
0000UTC 12.11.2022 84 38.5N 80.9W 997 22
1200UTC 12.11.2022 96 46.4N 73.4W 989 32
0000UTC 13.11.2022 108 47.7N 62.6W 991 42
1200UTC 13.11.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

[SFLcane]

FYI GEFS Ensemble mean is near boynton beach.

[jlauderdal]

Interesting to note the 12z GFS keeps it a hurricane across the state, something my local station are not publically saying. How can this track stay so south when official track stays North?

Its one model run in a very unstable modeling environment, will have to see a solid trend which we dont have. We had south and west trend yesterday which evaporated today and of course has increased anxiety, even at NHC.