ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

From NWS Melbourne:

Conditions will begin to deteriorate as early as tonight due to the
nature of the storm and the large wind field associated with the
system. Use today to complete preparations, as winds will increase
tomorrow, with increasing shower chances as cells begin to move
onshore. As the center of Nicole nears the east coast of Florida,
tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the region, with
hurricane conditions possible near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Today’s the day for safe prep. I know, don’t really feel like it.

[GCANE]

Based on the pressure drop at the closest buoy, I expect Nicole is down to 999mb now.
Pretty much a naked swirl, but does seem to be spinning faster.

[tiger_deF]

People will definitely be deceived by the forecasted strength. To be clear, I doubt Nicole will surpass cat 1 intensity, but the combination of King tides, a nasty pressure gradient producing onshore flow, a large windfield, and extended time over Florida will produce worse conditions than what would be expected otherwise. This is definitely going to suprise some people.

[CourierPR]

What caused Nicole to form as a subtropical storm versus a fully tropical storm?

[Beef Stew]

Nicole, while still far from ideal, is looking a bit better- I wouldn’t be surprised to see the transition from STS to TS happen a bit sooner than currently forecast.

Also of note- Should Nicole make landfall on Florida’s east coast as a hurricane, she will join an exclusive club- only two other official hurricanes have made landfall in the CONUS in November since 1851, and both have been in Florida. Kate (1985), the most recent, made landfall on 11/21 near Mexico Beach as a 100 mph category 2, and the 1935 “Yankee Hurricane” made landfall on 11/04 near Miami Beach, also as a 100 mph category 2.

Additionally, should Nicole do so, she will also put an end to the ‘drought’ of hurricane landfalls on FL’s east coast. The current drought of 17+ years has been ongoing since Katrina’s landfall near Hallandale/Aventura on August 25th, 2005, and is the longest period of time in the recorded era (since 1851) without a hurricane making landfall along FL’s east coast (excluding the keys).

[cycloneye]

Plane found pressure extrapolated of 1001 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 071637
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172022
A. 07/16:32:50Z
B. 26.34 deg N 070.10 deg W
C. 925 mb 690 m
D. EXTRAP 1001 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 325 deg 71 nm 16:11:00Z
J. 055 deg 44 kt
K. 324 deg 79 nm 16:08:30Z
L. 30 kt
M. 132 deg 59 nm 16:49:00Z
N. 186 deg 19 kt
O. 132 deg 57 nm 16:48:30Z
P. 19 C / 759 m
Q. 20 C / 759 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 134 / 9
T. 0.02 / 4 nm
U. AF303 0217A NICOLE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 44 KT 324 / 79 NM 16:08:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 356 / 18 NM FROM FL CNTR

[tiger_deF]

What caused Nicole to form as a subtropical storm versus a fully tropical storm?

Not an expert, but the large size of the initial circulation put a damper on a defined warm core developing. In addition, a persistent infeed of dry air to the south created a very assymetric wind field typical of subtropical cyclones. Combine that with a UL environment that was initially hostile to center consolidation, and voila

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1589671522469572609

[GCANE]

Nicole is 32 miles south of forecast track

[Poonwalker]

Definitely becoming more of a concern on the west coast - I was without power for two days in Pinellas away from the coast despite Ian only sideswiping us. NHC's wind probabilities have Tampa at 43% for TS winds, the highest for any non-East coast location.

Expect that probability to go up as the uncertainty goes down especially a couple days out.

[Poonwalker]

Nicole is 32 miles south of forecast track

they predicted NW movement but on satellite it looks WNW or even due west, could be wobble though upon startup

[gatorcane]

Nicole is 32 miles south of forecast track

they predicted NW movement but on satellite it looks WNW or even due west, could be wobble though upon startup

Looks west to me, models may start moving more south:

[AutoPenalti]

she’s massive…

[GCANE]

Nicole is 32 miles south of forecast track

they predicted NW movement but on satellite it looks WNW or even due west, could be wobble though upon startup

Looks west to me, models may start moving more south:

https://i.postimg.cc/x1zvG3vY/goes16-vis-swir-nwatl-2.gif

Latest GFS is pushing the steering ridge to the SW.
This could become something closer to a Miami landfall

[SFLcane]

Its still moving NW.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1589676068012625920

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1589684465726418944

[aspen]

Nicole will probably end up as a decent rainmaker for much of the East Coast after its Florida landfall, as a trough picks it up and shoves a lot of its moisture up north Friday into Saturday. For example: the 12z HWRF has a swath of 2” of rain going all the way up into mid coastal Maine, and it’s forecasting possibly up to 5 inches total where I live in SW CT.

[gatorcane]

Its still moving NW.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1589676068012625920?s=20&t=hpspEDthqW0NE2z67_xXTw

I am having a hard time see NW. I see west, or even a wobble just south of west looking at the loops but recon can confirm.

[GCANE]

27N 71W
Looks like a strong cell firing.
Cloud tops colder than other convection.
Small outflow boundary indicating a strong downdraft.
Watching this one.

[Patrick99]

Its still moving NW.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1589676068012625920?s=20&t=hpspEDthqW0NE2z67_xXTw

I am having a hard time see NW. I see west, or even a wobble just south of west looking at the loops but recon can confirm.

I notice that too but hard to say. She's still evolving in real time.