ATL: IAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Question for someone smarter than me: How does the Euro shift west 3 runs in a row and yet the TVCN shifts east? Does the UKMET carry as much weight as the Euro all of a sudden? The UK is the eastern outlier now.


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The Euro shifted East this run.

[Sailingtime]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

Wow brother, that cone is definitely gonna have to shift IMHO.

The forecast track will shift and the cone will shift accordingly.

Makes sense to me that the UK would curve NE and come ashore around Port Charlotte and move across the state (like Charley) Bending around the front rather than bumping it and slowing down. There is more agricultural land on this track and less population so that might be a good thing. Wonder what the 5pm NHC will put together. Getting closer to crunch time and decisions to be made by coastal residents.

[Blown Away]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

18z guidance is showing less N to NW movement after N Florida landfall and more meeting the trough and accelerating NE. 18z GFS will be highly anticipated to see if it continues the E trend?

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS mean not surprisingly east of 6Z and similar to 0Z with a mean track near Tampa.

[skyline385]

12Z EPS with mean, it’s east of operational run




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[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[TheHurricaneGod]

12Z EPS with mean, it’s east of operational run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220926/dc55cb58e76cdee8e989551459d465a0.jpg


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That's 00z

[SouthernBreeze]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

18z guidance is showing less N to NW movement after N Florida landfall and more meeting the trough and accelerating NE. 18z GFS will be highly anticipated to see if it continues the E trend?

I see the east movement, then quite a few models send it right back inland in GA or SC. What causes the sudden re-turn & not out to sea?

[OuterBanker]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

Interesting, half now offshore. Luckily the dry cool air intrusion won't allow Ian to restrengthen. If it does get back in the water it could allow it to expand and produce more rain increasing the chance of flooding north into the Carolinas and mid atlantic.

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro Ens

[Michele B]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

18z guidance is showing less N to NW movement after N Florida landfall and more meeting the trough and accelerating NE. 18z GFS will be highly anticipated to see if it continues the E trend?

The only good news in that scenario is that if the trough picks it up, it'll move across the state rapidly, rather than sit in the Gulf for days and days dumping rain.

[Stormgodess]

GFS and Euro as of 06z are identical.. Both spare the worst of Ian to the west for Tampa and erode him as he heads for Apalachicola.

That run from the Euro I believe is just 20 miles or so off the coast (I live near the coast) and the GFS just moved much closer and is actually worse for us in Tampa Bay. It will drive massive amounts of water up Tampa Bay and create massive flooding and it wont be much wind reduction here in Pinellas county . For it to be better, it would need to come in just South.

Stay safe guys, more and more I'm thinking that no matter where this thing goes, major flooding for much of the state will be the biggest problem. Storm surge combined with all that east side rainfall along such a VAST area. It doesn't look good

[cane5]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

18z guidance is showing less N to NW movement after N Florida landfall and more meeting the trough and accelerating NE. 18z GFS will be highly anticipated to see if it continues the E trend?

I see the east movement, then quite a few models send it right back inland in GA or SC. What causes the sudden re-turn & not out to sea?

Remember you have a very strong high pressure ridge extending to the east coast.

[cane5]

Funny the cone just keeps on extending more Southeast remember the original cones had South Florida very well in the cone of concern. All it takes soon is one little wobble and Jesus take the wheel

Down here in Miami there was just a advisory we have a 30mph feeder band heading north from homestead.

[syfr]

12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/mzDhjT8.gif

That's an amazing grind along the west coast ending with a collapse of the system.

[SouthernBreeze]

18z guidance is showing less N to NW movement after N Florida landfall and more meeting the trough and accelerating NE. 18z GFS will be highly anticipated to see if it continues the E trend?

I see the east movement, then quite a few models send it right back inland in GA or SC. What causes the sudden re-turn & not out to sea?

Remember you have a very strong high pressure ridge extending to the east coast.

I sure hope Ian doesn't dilly-dally, as a weak low may try to form off NC coast

[jhpigott]

18z ICON running and coming in east at hour 12

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2618&fh=-3

[SFLcane]

What is ths?

[AutoPenalti]

18z ICON running and coming in east at hour 12

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2618&fh=-3

and a big one at that...

[Poonwalker]

The critical longitude during the Cuba passage is going to be 84W. West of that line the trough doesn’t appear to have the pull necessary to cause a direct eyewall impact on the west central coast, it remains offshore and the overall impact there is lessened. 83.5 W seems to be the line that will directly impact Tampa in the worst way either just brushing it or more likely a direct land hit.